WV: Rasmussen Poll Manchin 50%, Raese 45%

[Lunar]

I am not sure that I agree that Manchin will probably win. It depends a lot on the campaign, and how Manchin chooses to position himself.

Two hypothetical questions then:

1) Do you think Manchin is a talented enough of a politician to figure out how to choose to position himself?

2) Do you think Manchin will do that, if necessary, to win?


Based on your quoted bit above, unless you think one in Machin's position can tell himself that the West Virginia climate in November, 2010 will be something other than it appears today, well, I think it speaks volumes.

[Lunar]

If he does, will that erode part of his base?

Who do you think is his base?

[Lunar]

If he does, will that erode part of his base?

Who do you think is his base?

Well part of it is presumably those who are in sync with Obama, and maybe they won't vote. And if Manchin really locks himself into the GOP agenda (but he can do more for WV), he probably realizes that will create problems down the line for his political career, and is it really worth it?  So it has to be a very skillful Obama light, picking the right spots. I am just musing here. And I don't really have a good understanding of WV anyway. But I do know this is a Dem lean (and not too far from tossup), but potentially with some likelihood very vulnerable, seat for the Dems to hold. It requires a lot more skill to hold really for the Dems that the Conn seat, and that one is also only lean Dem for the moment, but perhaps a bit more comfortably so.

Locking himself into "how he would have voted" on the stuff everyone knows about doesn't seem too risky.  "I would have voted against the healthcare bill because it didn't do enough to control costs and added too much to the deficit *wink*" -- unions know he's not an ideologue and his opponent can't paint him as a super liberal.  It doesn't seem to be this delicate balancing act you're making it out to be.

The only thing that would box him in in the future would be speculating on future bills.  I don't think he's going to have a hard time saying he's against amnesty and cap-n-trade, so what else is there?

[Lunar]

Manchin can say whatever he wants Torie, you make excessive assumptions about his unwillingness to differentiate himself from the national party.... I mean a number of Dems campaigned heavily against TARP but voted to fund the second half, srsly your mind is too active on this race, much like mine is in LA and AK and IN, but instead of chilling and waiting you're so imaginative !