Illinois Primary Thread

[Lunar]

What do you all think? (I'm talking to you Lunar!)

I haven't been following t he Hynes-Quinn race very closely the last  few months.

My guess is that the incumbent is at a disadvantage.

[Lunar]

Here's a good analysis of the race:

http://campaigndiaries.com/2010/01/26/one-week-to-go-to-illinois/

Governors across the country better be paying attention to what is happening in Illinois because Pat Quinn’s primary troubles are a testament to the many ways in which the economic crisis has endangered incumbents’ standing. Forced to take budget-cutting measures to adjust for declining revenues, most governors have gone down routes that can easily be attacked by their opponents. While targeting programs for the poor is often the easiest way out politically since the lower-class tends to not be organized, one of the solutions Quinn implemented - reducing prison costs - was bound to be exploited by his rivals.

Aimed at prisoners with short sentences, the Meritorious Good Time Push program allowed them to be paroled before their term ended, thus reducing the number of inmates incarcerated at any one time and by extension the costs associated with them. Yet, controversy erupted last month as the AP reported that many prisoners had received credit for time they served in county jails and were thus released from the state penitentiary weeks before the 61 days they were required to have served before qualifying for the program.

Quinn’s primary challenger, Comptroller Dan Hynes, immediately recognized the issue’s potential. Not only did he indict the governor’s responsibility in the mix-up, he also made the very existence of the program his main angle of attack, accusing Quinn of having failed to protect Illinois residents. Hynes has relentlessly attacked the governor over these issues in recent weeks, including at debates, which has put Quinn on the defensive - the governor ended up calling the early release program a “mistake” and tried to pin the blame on the state’s prisons director.

Taking pages out of George H. W. Bush’s playbook, Hynes is airing an ad that accuses Quinn of being indirectly responsible for a crime committed by an inmate who was released early. “This man was let out of prison early by Pat Quinn. He’s now been arrested for assaulting a woman for four hours, choking and beating her,” the narrator says. “A governor’s bad judgment does have consequences. It’s time to release Pat Quinn from his job.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn2w5EwHsdE

However successful Hynes’s relentless focus on the prison program, none of his attacks has been as brutal, and none could come to define the primary as much as, his ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington, a hero not only in the African-American community but also among reformers. The ad features 20-year old footage of Washington saying that he wish he had not hired Quinn as the city budget director; “Pat Quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual who thinks this government is nothing but a large easel on which to do his PR work,” Washington is heard saying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QnuD6gojB4

This ad has dominated exchanges in the final days of the campaign past few days, making Quinn’s camp even more apoplectic as it was over the prison release attacks. Their response: This is a ludicrous attack considering the comptroller’s father Tom Hynes went all-out to oust Washington in the 1987 mayoral race. But there is no question that this is quite a damaging attack.

Smelling blood, Hynes has been blasting Quinn on many issues, and This Sun-Times column captures the spirit of the race; it’s certainly not surprising Hynes has been so successful at demolishing Quinn’s reputation given his family’s prominent role in Illinois’s Democratic machine, which surely gives his camp experience in taking care of political business. In fact, Quinn seems to be thinking about his opponent’s father quite a lot these days, as the governor went afterTom Hynes directly in their latest debate. “I think Pat Quinn has become disoriented,” Hynes responded. “He thinks he’s running against my father. I know you’ve been in politics 30 years, but my father retired 15 years ago. Maybe you should, too.” You can sense these two Democrats will be great friends once the primary is over.

Hynes’s attacks have taken their toll: What two months ago looked like it would be an easy victory by the new governor has turned into a toss-up, and it is likely that Hynes is pulling ahead.

This morning, PPP released the first poll to find Quinn trailing; while the margin is only 41-40, the momentum is all on the comptroller’s side. Yesterday, a new Chicago Tribune poll already had found Quinn sinking, since his 44-40 lead compared very unfavorably to his 49-23 early December lead; of course, Quinn is particularly vulnerable because he was never elected governor, but that is still a brutal turnaround. Seeking to drive the narrative of his momentum, Hynes released an internal poll of his own finding Quinn with a 44% to 37% lead, as well as a dismal 36% to 60% approval rating among Democrats. (The Chicago Tribune’s numbers were much better for Quinn, 43-31, though the topline results are worse.)

[Lunar]

Quinn also got the endorsement of the Cook County Democratic Party

[Lunar]

I wonder if the GOP can actually beat the Dem in the gubernatorial race...

Considering you guys lost to Rod Blagojevich by double-digits, I wouldn't hold your breath.

Horrible person, good campaigner, and, in the case of 2006, no oxygen for Republicans in Democratic strongholds....Now, with an incumbent?

[Lunar]

Dillard isn't conceding the Republican nomination yet, saying we need to wait for provisionals and late arriving absentees.

He hasn't mentioned the "r-word" yet, however.

He probably shouldn't be calling his opponent a retard yet, good strategy

[Lunar]

Cohen drops out:

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/cohen-steps-down-83685472.html

thank God

wtf was he thinking running in the first place? 

[Lunar]

I could see one running for city council or a state senate seat and not having one's past catch up to you, but Lt. Governor of one of the biggest states in the country?  I understand being ambitious, but, first of all, if you have a record like that, you have a certain ceiling for the highest office you can achieve.  Secondly if you want to reach said ceiling, you can't go straight from business (without paying child support) to high political office, you need to establish a political record to prove that's all behind you.

I really cannot understand what's going on here, and it really doesn't make me have much faith in the Democrats to be able to do well statewide in 2010.  Obama will need to figure out who he is fundamentally and what he wants to do if he wants his old Senate seat to remain Democrat.

Does anyone know why all this information suddenly showed up AFTER the election?

[Lunar]

Quinn-Hynes?

Seems obvious.

[Lunar]

Is there some aging politician, like a downstate version of Roland Burris, that would like the grace and prestige of the lt. governor office to end their career?  I checked the non-Chicago Democratic Congressmen and they're all <60, hmm. 

Can Quinn just pick Hynes so that they can work together to abolish the Lt. Governor's office?  I mean, it's far easier to get rid of the office if your lt. gov supports the idea.

[Lunar]

There's the former two-term Blue Dog Congressman David Phelps, who lost to John Shimkus when their districts were merged in 2002. He's an assistant secretary for the Illinois DOT, and is in his 60s.

Hynes might as well just wait until 2014 to run again. Quinn's damaged goods, and it's got to be a tossup at best for him (thanks only to Brady winning the nomination).

Meh, a pro-life anti-gay type might depress progressive Hynes supporters who are already unsure about this race.  I guess every political faction in IL probably has an opinion on who should be on the ticket.  Quinn would be just as well finding the faction that he most needs to cement his relationship with (something which might not be public) and go with whoever they want that's geographically viable.  

Maybe some Hynes-loyalist downstate legislator?  The better connected the better.

[Lunar]

Would have made more sense to just go with the runner up.  It seems less backroom dealy

[Lunar]

Would have made more sense to just go with the runner up.  It seems less backroom dealy

Meh. When the winner had, what, 21% of the vote, it's not like the runner-up has any serious legitimacy to claim anything.

Yeah, but at least then you're giving it to someone who campaigned for it, who worked for it, who built up alliances etc. for it.  

I still think it would have been cool of Hynes took the spot, and from the position of Lt. Governor, worked to eliminate the office of Lt. Governor (one of his campaign proposals).

[Lunar]

Swing State Project summarizes my concerns:

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