ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Pandaguineapig]

This race is still a toss up, my guess is Cramer sees a much better path to victory with trumps numbers improving nationally. Also to say Heitkamps political skills have been overhyped on this thread would be a gross understatement, she is a great retail politician but she still barely defeated an incredibly weak candidate in 2012, the national democratic party has only gotten more toxic in ND since then and she also now has a voting record to defend now

[Pandaguineapig]

Granted I know that barring a new 9/11 that this climate is much better from democrats than 2014 but Mary Landrieu, Evan Bayh, and Mark Pryor were all gifted retail politicians on tge same level as Heitkamp but it didn't stop them from getting curbstomped by boring candidates

[Pandaguineapig]

45-50% Heitkamp is a good campaigner but politics is becoming more national than ever, better retail politicians than her have lost reelection big time, While the environment is much better for democrats than 2014 Mary Landrieu was every bit the retail campaigner Heitkamp is but she still lost to a boring candidate, same with Tom Daschle years ago

[Pandaguineapig]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

[Pandaguineapig]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

I don't think communists and anarchists are funding her, or even voting for her considering many communists/anarchists refuse to vote because of their ideology.

Terms like "far left" don't mean "someone I disagree with."

Whatever you describe "far left" as, a lot of the major individuals and groups who are funding her are the types who believe that Brett Kavanaugh will kill millions if confirmed on the bench. A yes vote will not please those people

[Pandaguineapig]

With republican support for Kavanaugh being unanimous and her not being a crucial vote, I think Heitkamp probably votes to confirm Kavanaugh at this point in a hope to turn the tide of this race

[Pandaguineapig]

https://youtu.be/QNZuXF7ewf0

Ad from Heitkamp explaining her Kavanaugh vote and mentioning that she voted for Gorsuch. It’s a good strategy and I think she should really stress that she would have voted for anyone BUT Kavanaugh.

Let's be honest: if she were down by a couple of points rather than double-digit she would have voted to confirm. This is more about securing a plum job after she leaves the senate

[Pandaguineapig]

https://youtu.be/QNZuXF7ewf0

Ad from Heitkamp explaining her Kavanaugh vote and mentioning that she voted for Gorsuch. It’s a good strategy and I think she should really stress that she would have voted for anyone BUT Kavanaugh.

Let's be honest: if she were down by a couple of points rather than double-digit she would have voted to confirm. This is more about securing a plum job after she leaves the senate

Or: she genuinely believed women had been assaulted

More likely: If she wants a top level lobbying position she needs to be welcome in the offices of her senate colleagues, Same reason why senator Hamlet(Flake) was always going to be a yes

[Pandaguineapig]

https://twitter.com/jwgop/status/1048982945124552704

I’d rather see a public survey than these Twitter rumors

If the best news for Heitkamp is a "private poll" that some Msnbc hack claims to have seen than shows her down several points as an incumbent, then she really is screwed

[Pandaguineapig]

Yeah Heitkamp is done, she isn't going to make up a double digits deficit in a couple of weeks by leaking the names of domestic violence survivors

[Pandaguineapig]

I know that ND is cheap to advertise in but I still don't know why Democrats haven't triaged this race yet, especially when she could end up facing a lawsuit over this stunt

[Pandaguineapig]

It seems to be that all of the polls are in agreement on some factors:
1. Heidi will win almost all Dems
2. Heidi will win around 15-20% of Indies over Cramer
3. Heidi will win 10-20% of Rs

Where the conflict stems is the percentage of each group. Fox says around 50% Rs, 20% Is, and 30%Ds, and the new pollster saying 60%Rs, 10%Is, and 30%Ds, and with the 2012 pollster saying 45%Rs,20%Is, and 35%Ds.

Dude let it go, she's done

[Pandaguineapig]

Heitkamp's down but this state has NO VOTER REGISTRATION and we have a poll with only 9% of people identified as Independents. That Cramer +16 poll is complete junk and if you move the numbers to 45% R, 35% D, and 20% Independent, Heitkamp's got a slim lead. 

Yes yes unskew those polls

[Pandaguineapig]

Heitkamp's down but this state has NO VOTER REGISTRATION and we have a poll with only 9% of people identified as Independents. That Cramer +16 poll is complete junk and if you move the numbers to 45% R, 35% D, and 20% Independent, Heitkamp's got a slim lead. 

Yes yes unskew those polls

To be fair, those are just the 2016 numbers, though a bit D friendly in my book.

I know, all the polls have her down double digits and the recent cycle has been dominated by her doxxing domestic abuse victims but if you want to believe she still has a shot (just like you believed Jealous was ahead in Maryland) go ahead

[Pandaguineapig]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

I think internal polling is bad enough for Democrats that they've mostly given up on this race, leaving Heitkamp with lesser surrogates such as Landrieu and Hagel

[Pandaguineapig]

https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html
DeSantis-48
Gillum-45
R+3
Trump Net Approval: +9
(done by Stratigic Research Associates)


This is the pollster that has given most of the info we have so far on the ND senate race......

Unskew!!!unskew!!!

[Pandaguineapig]

Correction: Biden will only appeat at the kickoff, he isn't going to appear at the other events on the stop

[Pandaguineapig]

Anyway, my opinion on that matter is that bringing Joe Biden, a heavyweight, into ND signals that, unlike some have been saying on Atlas, Heidi hasnt been triaged. Think about it, he could be in IN, or MO, or WV, NV or AZ, why in ND? Perhaps she isnt down and out.

Could be( though per wapo both side's polls have her well down), could also be that this is a favor for several votes she gave the administration

[Pandaguineapig]

It appears that Trump and the other major surrogates are focusing their stops elsewhere in the lead up to the election, Heitkamp is done but at least she got a bunch of gullible out of state leftists to throw away their money

[Pandaguineapig]

I honestly don't think Heitkamp is as cooked as people think.

Dems dont seem to think so. I mean, they sent Joe Biden to campaign for her in the final days.

He made one stop at a bus tour kickoff which could very well be him repaying a favor for a vote or him securing endorsements (Clinton also campaigned for several doomed democrats for the same reason). What is noticeable is that neither Trump or Pence are planning to make any stops in the state despite being extremely popular there.

[Pandaguineapig]

When the brother is saying that you know Heitkamp is doomed.

Her brother Joel is just blowing up smoke here.

Even he implies that she is still behind lol