Definition of bellwether states

[Bozo the Clown]

States within 5 points of the popular vote. For example, 2008 overestimates Indiana's importance because of the 2012 spread favoring Romney despite losing.

[Bozo the Clown]

Here's what I would define as recent and upcoming bellwether states.

North Carolina- leans GOP
Ohio- barely GOP
Florida- toss up
Georgia- toss up
Iowa- toss up
Maine- toss up
Minnesota- barely Dem
New Hampshire- barely Dem
Wisconsin- leans Dem
Pennsylvania- leans Dem
Colorado- leans Dem
Virginia- leans Dem
New Jersey- leans Dem

Maine is only because of how they vote in non-presidential elections. They're so far from their presidential cycle that I included the state.