Who will win in Michigan?

[NHLiberal]

Honestly, Mark Schauer. Even the junky Michigan firms that showed Romney up by a lot and used to show Snyder and Land up by high single digits are showing a much tighter race, with the most recent MRG poll saying Snyder +1 and the most recent EPIC poll saying Snyder +3. Meanwhile, more reliable firms like NBC/Marist and PPP show a race that is basically tied, with good news for Schauer in the other questions (i.e. Schauer's name recognition still low, leading amongst those who know who he is, Snyder's low favorables).

Now, polls aside, there's even more good news for Schauer, which is that Dems don't really start polling well in Michigan until after Labor Day when the Unions ramp up their effort and more reliably Democratic voters begin to pay attention.

I know Republicans are convinced that Snyder has a strong advantage, but when you look at the details, there's a very strong argument to be made that it's a pure toss-up right now with Schauer in a good position to pull out the win on Election Day.