Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

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I'm afraid Kelly's going to win, which is going to be pretty saddening for me.

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Kinda late to be asking this, but what are some differences in the platforms of Svaty and Kelly?

Svaty seems to me to be a very charismatic speaker. He really got his first coverage from a Salina high school graduation speech in 2016: “Nobody from Nowhere.”

That wasn't his first coverage lol. He was pretty talked about when he defeated an incumbent Republican by a 30% margin at age 22.

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Very early but things seem okay and according to a poll worker friend Josh is killing it in SE Kansas.

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Less than 1000 votes but Kelly is leading Svaty and all that is reporting is west of Topeka.

Manhattan is where most votes are from and I expected college towns to pick Kelly.

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uh well I expected Svaty to come a close second in Wichita yikes this is bad

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yeah I agree with you

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Jeez, this has been a rough night. Joshua Svaty got 4th in Wyandotte County despite having the endorsement of over half of the county's House Reps. He finished behind Arden Andersen, a pro-life, antivax homeopathic "doctor". Darn...

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Lots of Republican moderate losses tonight.
According to KU Professor Patrick Miller (although JoCo hasn't officially released results), incumbent moderate Patty Markley and moderate candidate Kristy Acree lost their primaries.
Incumbents Joy Koesten, Don Schroeder, Mary Martha Good, Anita Judd-Jenkins, and Steven Becker lost too. They tended to gravitate moderate.

Moderate GOP candidate Jeff Kennedy (87th) lost to right-wing Renee Erickson, and Democrats could easily have beat her if they HAD A CANDIDATE in this swingy Wichita district. My middle school science teacher got nearly 40% here in 2014 while running a left-wing campaign against then-incumbent Mark Kahrs.

Looks like this is the right-wing revenge for the centrist primary victories of 2016. And with a likely Colyer win now and again in November, it looks like Kansas will somehow end up worse off in 2018...

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One good result though-John Whitmer, a right-wing Republican closely associated with FBI indicted Sedgwick County Commissioner Michael O'Donnell, lost his primary to quite liberal Republican scientist JC Moore, who according to a friend of mine, is a big advocate of a carbon dividend.

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It looks like everything is in except JoCo and KKK is up by 807.  I'd expect Coyler to win the remaining JoCo by at least 5-6000 but what do I know.

Well JoCo has some updated numbers and they aren't good for Colyer hard to tell who is going to win now.  Added about 50 precincts and Colyer didn't gain ground.

A little surprising to me! I assumed JoCo would lift Colyer over the top.

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Svaty should run for Chair of the Kansas Democratic Party. He’s certainly showed that he can hold his own, despite not winning the primary.

Didn't closely follow the race, but I don't really get  Svaty's rural strategy.  What scenario could conceivably have created enough voters to make it work?  

Svaty is the archetypal example of a candidate that gets hyped up by Atlas/Election Twitter people despite never having a chance in the first place. Despite the fact that he was third in both the polls we got of the primary, so many people on Atlas were anticipating some "Svaty surge" that would carry him to the frontrunner position and lead the KS Dem party to some populist resurgence. Instead, he came in third with a pathetic high teens percentage of the vote, behind Carl Brewer, a man that is only marginally more charismatic than a loaf of bread. Svaty never had a chance. He has no base within the Democratic party, and despite being a good GE candidate in theory, he has little to offer the Democratic base. I would say I hope election nerds learned their lesson about hyping populist hero candidates from this, but we both know that'll never happen.

Well, he did have a base, just a very small one and given the primary rules in KS, the available pool of voters for the D primary in the rural part of the state is pretty darn small, so it's just kind of hard to see how it could have worked under any circumstance.

These takes are a bit ignorant. Svaty's issue was that he never went on TV. Brewer had name recognition. Kelly had TV ads and some name rec. Svaty didn't. That was it. It wasn't about not having a base.

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First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

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First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

He's definitely intriguing. Gulf War Veteran who is a farmer, school superintendent, and actor. He got attacked for being in a movie about college students questioning their sexuality, but he nearly defeated Huelskamp in the 2014 GOP primary.

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So, do you guys think Kelly will win Saline County? It voted pretty close to the statewide totals in 2014, so I assume only if she wins? I stayed at a motel in Salina for a couple days during my road trip last year (#DriveoverCountry) so I am personally invested in this outcome. Judging from the primary, Svaty would've had a much better chance there.

I agree that Svaty was the best candidate to win Saline County, but I think Laura Kelly could prevail against Kobach there. It's gonna depend on how much campaigning she does in smaller cities like Salina and Hutchinson. She could be helped by the strong campaign Gerrett Morris is putting up in the 69th House District against JR Claeys, who Democrats have come close to unseating in the recent past.

First District Democratic candidate Alan LaPolice just took a flamethrower to Rep. Marshall's corporate contributions. Pretty good ad if you ask me!! He's raised a decent amount of money, but this district is pretty much impossible for a Democrat to win in. Props to LaPolice for fighting hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXIo3fYRKA&feature=youtu.be

LaPolice seems like a bizarrely good candidate to me, not to mention he somehow managed to pull in over a hundred thousand dollars last quarter. And in such a red district, too! It's a shame his district is so tough but this district is worth keeping an eye on, it just screams "sleeper race" and I could see it being surprisingly close. Obviously his chances of actually winning are near zero but at least he's going to make Marshall put a bit of effort into the race.

He did surprisingly well in 2016 when he ran as an indy. Wouldn't be surprised if he keeps it in the low double digits.

Well, in 2014 (GOP year), Jim Sherow, a K-State historian and former mayor of Manhattan, pulled 32% while raising much less money than LaPolice already has. In 2010, former Salina Mayor Alan Jilka got 23%. So my guess is that LaPolice gets like 25-30%. Marshall is a stronger opponent than Huelskamp.

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Colyers-campaign-chairman-now-backing-Orman-491799071.html

Colyer's campaign chairman endorsed Orman today. Interesting.

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So, in the 85th House District, Republican Michael Capps has come under scrutiny because a DCF (Department of Children and Families) investigation found him to be emotionally abusive. He was already getting hit for carpetbagging to the 85th district after the campaign began, but the elections board, filled with partisan Republicans, shot down the objection to his campaign. Capps is refusing to drop out, even though Republicans are calling for him to do so.

This district is suburban and takes in some rural areas too. Previously, it was represented by Steve Brunk and then Chuck Weber (who goes to my church back home), two of the most conservative Republicans in state government. It voted 61% for Trump, but I honestly think Democrat Monica Marks is a strong candidate. She's associated with the pro-James Thompson class of local Democratic activists and is young, progressive, and running a strong campaign. I'd keep this one on your radar!

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article217638450.html

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Firefighters union endorses Kobach.

WTF?

This guy is behind Kobach's labor outreach. A Democrat, Keith Mark, is Kobach's hunting buddy and was his initial link to Donald Trump. He also has been doing favors for Kobach in terms of garnering union support.

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Michael Capps' situation continues to get worse. His endorsement from Kansans For Life has now been retracted, which is a big deal in a conservative suburban district like the 85th. Capps has also been accused of fraud by former State Rep. Les Osterman, who was ostensibly his campaign's treasurer. Osterman says he didn't give permission to be listed as treasurer.

Kansas Republicans are stuck with Capps on the ballot, and despite the Republican Party calling for him to step down as a Representative, he continues to refuse. Suddenly, a seat that at first may have oscillated between safe and likely GOP is lean GOP.

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A bunch of Second District Republicans just endorsed Paul Davis, including former Lt. Gov. Gary Sherrer and former Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180917/36-republicans-endorse-democrat-paul-davis-in-2nd-district-race

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Kansas is quite unique in having this almost three party dynamic, and it really shows this cycle.

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Lyft and Voto Latino partnered to provide free rides on election day in Dodge City for those who need help getting to the polling station!
https://www.bustle.com/p/voting-for-dodge-city-kansas-residents-will-be-easier-thanks-to-lyft-voto-latino-12796504

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Overall EV numbers statewide are considerably more friendly for Democrats than in 2014 0r 2016, which is a good sign.

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Democratic AG candidate Sarah Swain was denounced and condemned by the Kansas Democratic Party in May for having a controversial image of Wonder Woman strangling a police officer featured in her law office.

Last week the Sedwick County Democratic Party promoted a Swain event using that picture. Hasn't gained much traction, just sharing some news on downballot races. Incumbent AG Derek Schmidt (R) is heavily favored in this race, it'll almost certainly be the biggest margin of victory.

Voted for every Democrat up and down my ballot except Sarah Swain. Didn't vote for Schmidt either, because Schmidt supported birther BS against Obama in 2012, sued the feds over the ACA, and tried to force Dems to name a candidate after Chad Taylor dropped out. Instead, I wrote in former Democratic AG Steve Six.

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Brent Welder changed his Facebook page's name from "Brent Welder for Congress" to "Brent Welder for Kansas" and just posted an article about Pat Roberts saying "Tick tock Senator Pat Roberts, your time is up in 2020".

I think he's running...