Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Kansas

[VPH]

Absolutely safe GOP. Kansas very rarely even gives the Democratic nominee over 40%. It's happened 3 times in the last 50 years. (Carter 1976, Dukakis, Obama 2008) Kansas will not flip to Democrats. That being said, I could see Hillary hit 42-43%, which is better than Democrats usually do. Kansas Democrats are unusually organized on the state level (fielding senate candidates for every district), Jay Sidie has the DCCC on his side, Kansas voted strongly against Trump and for Cruz, the typical 'Trump demographic' isn't really prevalent, and Johnson County is prime territory for Hillary to make gains and maybe even win. Hillary will almost certainly outperform Obama 2012 and maybe 2008. I'd keep an eye on Crawford and Lyon counties. Crawford is white, working class, in an area that used to have lots of mining. Usually a good spot for Democrats but we'll see how Trump plays there. Lyon is also a poorer county, but it has a pretty high Hispanic population. Out west, some of the majority Hispanic counties could swing (but not flip. Maybe from 80-20 to like 70-30) to Hillary if outreach/registration efforts are strong enough.