The Next DNC Chair: TOM PEREZ WINS, makes Ellison deputy chair

[The Other Castro]

If it was only symbolic, Perez wouldn't be running, though. He was only pushed into the race to stop Ellison. Clearly, someone thinks it's important to stop Ellison.

Misguided people with misguided thinking.

[The Other Castro]

Perez claims 180/224 votes.

Multiple ballots here we come.

[The Other Castro]

Wulfric try reading over your posts at least once before posting, and then maybe they wouldn't sound so stupid.

[The Other Castro]

It is possible that Team Perez is being misleading on their numbers, but Team Ellison's reaction probably indicates that they have below 180 locked up. My super rough guess at the first ballot is something like Perez 190, Ellison 173, Buckley 40, Buttigieg 35, Other 9.

[The Other Castro]

There's another factor to consider here. Even if Perez does have 180 votes, as he claims, is he going to be able to pick up another 44 votes needed for a majority? That is only 40% after all, and I would think that the establishment people that would support him are already supporting him. Most of the other voters are probably either uncommitted, or with Buckley or Buttigieg. If Buckley throws his support to Ellison, that could be enough, or make Buttigieg the kingmaker. It depends on how strong the Tier 2 candidates are.

[The Other Castro]

WaPo: 2-man race. Harrison and Buckley have at least double-digit support, Buttigieg has won good reviews & is a popular 2nd-tier choice but is not in serious contention.

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Sounds like both may be inclined to support Ellison.

[The Other Castro]

WaPo: 2-man race. Harrison and Buckley have at least double-digit support, Buttigieg has won good reviews & is a popular 2nd-tier choice but is not in serious contention.

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Sounds like both may be inclined to support Ellison.

Harrison is also the ex-Dem chairman for South Carolina, the Dem party that nominated Alvin Greene for Senate, so Harrison is a joke. Buckley is awesome though and has done a good job in New Hampshire.

Harrison may not be a serious candidate, but he still apparently has more than 10 DNC members backing him, which could be pretty important on a 2nd or 3rd ballot.

[The Other Castro]

I still have yet to see an explanation for why Perez jumped in in the first place. What did he see that was wrong with Ellison? If they're so similar, why should Ellison's supporters have to bend the knee?

As much as I miss Obama, he did very little in the way of party building, and should have stayed out of this race. When Ellison entered, the first thing the people Obamaworld did was to start looking for an alternative challenger. I don't blame Perez, just the powers backing him. This goes beyond ideology and who is more progressive. It goes back to the themes of one side of the party telling the other that they know better. That they should stop, sit down, and let them take care of it, when it's under their watch that we got into this mess.

[The Other Castro]

Why the DNC is terrible and needs reform example 1423:

[The Other Castro]

CT Gov Malloy endorses Perez.

http://www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-malloy-endorses-tom-perez-for-dnc-chair-20170215-story.html

[The Other Castro]

Ed Rendell, former PA Gov and DNC Chair, endorses Buttigieg.

[The Other Castro]

Ellison emails DNC members, says Perez is trying "to exert pressure on you.":

[The Other Castro]

Buckley dropping out and endorsing Ellison, as Shapiro predicted.

Good news, could be enough depending on how much support Buckley had, but this still feels like a multi ballot race.

[The Other Castro]

Buttigieg is coming to GW in an hour, anyone have a question I should ask?

[The Other Castro]

First off, as impressive as he is on TV, believe me when I say that Buttigieg is even more impressive in person. He was personable, funny, direct, comfortable in the small setting, and also very handsome. I was able to ask him who he would support between Ellison and Perez if it got down to that point, and he answered that he was not able to say and liked them both for different reasons, and that he was not prepared to give his answer to a choice between the two. He also apologized for if he sounded like he was dodging the question. Based on the way he answered other questions, and invoked the "establishment" as apart from himself, I got the impression that he would be more likely to back Ellison.

Also, he hinted at a potential run for Governor in 2020.

[The Other Castro]

Buttigieg has the momentum right now.

Does he really, or does he just seem to be with the recent positive stories? The only thing that matters at the end of the day is the number of DNC votes he gets, and there's little to suggest that he's anywhere close to being competitive.

[The Other Castro]

9 mayors endorse Buttigieg:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/02/20/politics/pete-buttigieg-dnc-mayor-endorsements/index.html

From that same video, Symone Sanders says Ellison's team told her they have 200 DNC members.

[The Other Castro]

Sounds like Howard Dean may endorse Buttigieg tomorrow:

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[The Other Castro]

Very rough updated predictions:

Ballot 1: 205 Ellison, 185 Perez, 26 Buttigieg 21 Harrison, 10 Brown/Greene/Peckarsky/Ronan
-Brown, Greene, Peckarsky, Ronan drop out
Ballot 2: 209 Ellison, 186 Perez, 29 Buttigieg, 23 Harrison
-Harrison drops out
Ballot 3: 216 Ellison, 190 Perez, 41 Buttigieg
-Buttigieg eliminated
Ballot 4: 245 Ellison, 202 Perez

[The Other Castro]

Has a 3rd place 1st round candidate- ever ended winning?

In the 2009 RNC race, the 1st round was Duncan>Steele>Dawson. Although Dawson didn't win, he did take a slim plurality lead in the 5th round and became the finalist against Steele in the 6th and final round.

Also, Pope Francis reportedly was in 3rd place after the 1st round of voting.

[The Other Castro]

Has a 3rd place 1st round candidate- ever ended winning?

In the 2009 RNC race, the 1st round was Duncan>Steele>Dawson. Although Dawson didn't win, he did take a slim plurality lead in the 5th round and became the finalist against Steele in the 6th and final round.

Also, Pope Francis reportedly was in 3rd place after the 1st round of voting.

The fact that DNC pretty much ends after the 3rd round (due to mandatory dropout of the person with least votes).... hurts the chances of the consensus candidate scenario.

But there are 8 candidates, so hypothetically this could go 9 rounds.

[The Other Castro]

That survey from The Hill seems to have caused a great surge for Ellison on PredictIt, going from trailing Perez to leading him 56-41.

[The Other Castro]

Not only is Howard Dean endorsing Buttigieg, he is going to be nominating him for chair:

Howard Dean @GovHowardDean
Proud to be nominating Pete Buttigieg for chair of the DNC Saturday in Atlanta

This may run afoul of DNC procedure unless Dean gets an exemption, as only voting DNC members can nominate people.

[The Other Castro]

Who are these idiots in the DNC backing Brown over Buttigieg? Just, wtf.

[The Other Castro]

Surveys from Politico and The Hill imply an Ellison lead, while AP's count has many more DNC members accounted for and is probably more accurate. Many Perez people are going to take advantage of the secret ballot.