NBC/SurveyMonkey: Clinton +8 and at 50; Clinton +4 (4 way)

[The Other Castro]

Question:

Before the conventions I heard a lot of talk that polling immediately after the conventions is inaccurate because partisan response rates tend to spike after a party convention.  Do you guys think that could be in play here.  Is Clinton really up 4-8 points or more like 2-4?

It's not that polling is inaccurate, but rather the post-convention bumps can be temporary and fade pretty quickly. However, sometimes bumps can be maintained or even grow depending on the circumstances.