Predict the Bavarian state election (October 2018) (user search)
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  Predict the Bavarian state election (October 2018) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict the Bavarian state election (October 2018)  (Read 3232 times)
republicanbayer
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Posts: 86
Germany


« on: July 09, 2018, 07:29:35 AM »

My prediction:

CSU: 43.7%
AfD: 15.1%
Greens: 14.8%
SPD: 11.2%
Free Voters: 7.1%

FDP: 4.8%
Left: 1.9%

It seems likely that the CSU will lose its majority. I think that the Free Voters would be the best fit as coalition partners for the CSU. Not only do they have similar positions, but Söder and Aiwanger would get along well. Hubert Aiwanger has even stated that they want to be a part of the next government. Since he is not as popular as he once was, Deputy Prime Minister would be a nice way to finish his career.

For those interested, Civey has a daily polling average for the election. https://app.civey.com/shares/1404

I will probably vote for the CSU. I voted FDP last year, but the economy is not a state issue, so I don't see a reason to vote for them this time. Free Voters would make sense for me too, but I like how Seehofer tried to bring some common sense to Berlin. He obviously failed, the deal with Merkel is ridiculous, but at least he tried. And I hate how these Berlin politicians were upset about the "regional party taking Europe hostage" when all that Seehofer wanted to do was to bring back the rule of law. So I guess I will vote CSU, not because I like them so much (after all they are responsible for the migrant crisis and the leftist economic policies as well), but out of support for them against all these lunatic attacks coming from Günther, Laschet, Stegner, and other out of touch politicians.
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