March 12-16 Primaries & Caucuses megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington (assuming a good seattle showing), Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi/AS are effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It'll be interesting to see how many protest votes there are for Haley. Haley could also still accumulate delegates: Washington, Hawaii, and the Northern Mariana Islands are proportional, as is Georgia for its statewide delegates provided she gets 20% of the vote. She could also get 3 delegates by carrying a congressional district in GA (look at inner city Atlanta VRA seats). Delegates in Guam and American Samoa meanwhile, are not officially bound to anyone. However, Mississippi is effectively winner take all.

It's not technically mathematically impossible for Trump to clinch on the 12th, but it would require near-Kim-Jong-Un percentages. It is somewhat less improbable for Trump to clinch with NMI on the 15th, though the likeliest outcome is he clinches on the 19th.

WA is a closed primary though apparently. If Haley couldn't even get a third of the vote in San Francisco of all places when she was actively campaigning, I seriously doubt she wins any CD in the Seattle area now. I think Trump should be able to clean up shop this Tuesday but if not he will probably take it with NMI or Guam.

It's not closed in the sense we normally think of the word because there is no party registration. It's also entirely vote by mail, so there's no reason to not vote. You can register  to vote at the same time you send in your ballot. You do have to include this little oath, but that's it:

"I declare that I am a Republican and I have not participated and will not participate in the 2024 precinct caucus or convention system of any other party."

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think it's possible that both Biden and Trump receive a majority of delegates today already.

At least it's mathematically possible, because with no competition they should sweep all delegates today.

Withdrawn candidates remain on ballots, so it all depends on how many 'protest votes' are cast.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump now at 1,078 Delegates. I think he got the Final Delegates out of Colorado and North Carolina.

Every Network has him now at 1,078.

NYT hadn't awarded him the final 3 out of Missouri until now, not sure what the others did.

I'm not sure why NYT and others have not awarded Trump the 8 delegates from Vermont yet, when it's pretty clear that Haley is far below 50 percent (49.3):

https://electionresults.vermont.gov

Colorado has another delegate unassigned, but Colorado has 50.000 ballots left to count.

NC is 100% in, but has another delegate unassigned.

WY (29) and TX (11) have 40 unassigned delegates, but those won't be allocated until April/May.

The Vermont Secretary of State does not technically formally allocate delegates, but rather the state party through a resolution. Presumably the networks are waiting for some sort of indication as to whether the state party cares about Write-Ins/Blanks/Overvotes, which is the difference as to whether Haley is at 50% or not.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The final hours of the primary season are upon us.

Trump will lose the GE. Now go away.
All Trump Supporters need to be banned from Talk Elections.

It's called TALK ELECTIONS, not "Liberal Talk".

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obviously Trump and Biden win Georgia

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump and Biden win Mississippi

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does Biden uncontested in MS mean he is the only one on the ballot or if there is no ballot at all?

Only one on the ballot

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT: Most of the early voting window in Georgia was before Nikki Haley dropped out. While she is receiving a modest share of early and absentee by mail votes, she is receiving less than 5 percent of the ballots cast on Election Day.

Very quick acceptance of the nominee. Looks like there will be very few Haley-Biden voters in the fall.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump and Biden win Washington.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT awarded Trump the 1,215th delegate at 11:14 PM ET

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican turnout in GA is 2x as high as Democratic turnout.

Both primaries are uncompetitive at this point.

Does this tell us anything significant for November?

Probably not, maybe that some Republicans are more fired up to vote than some Democrats.

But it doesn't tell us much about the broader Republican electorate for November, or the broader Democratic one, not to mention independent voters.

You going to say that when there is almost zero vote out of the Atlanta area?

Everything is now counted in Georgia (almost)... and R turnout is still twice the D turnout in these uncompetitive races.

Part of it is the early voting period was before Haley dropped out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Like it's just .... exhausting at this point that we continue to get articles like this, when one of these people gets 95% in their primary, and the other gets 83%.

Instead, we literally get the opposite last night where Wapo did a "Haley vote is a mirage!" !!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1767879623499469159

Nearly all of the Haley Vote in GA and WA was cast before she dropped out. It was negligible in MS and HI. Republicans are unifying remarkably fast.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The 8 Vermont delegates have now been awarded to Trump.

Not awarded yet:

1 delegate for CO (50.000 votes left to count)
1 delegate for NC (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
3 from GA (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)
6 from HI (virtually everything is counted, not sure why it's not awarded yet)

29 from Wyoming ("Those delegates will be allocated to candidates at the G.O.P. state convention occurring April 18 to April 20.")

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/republican-primary-delegates-tracker-calendar.html

Hawaii has been awarded now.

NC/GA seems to be something on enough of a knife's edge that it's best to wait for certification. In GA it's some VRA seat that enters DeKalb, in NC it's highly proportional and Trump is probably right on the line.

WY isn't really a normal contest. We'll be waiting until April there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump wins 93% of the vote and all 9 delegates in the Northern Mariana Islands: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4534404-trump-wins-northern-mariana-islands-gop-caucus/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No resistance in Guam: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/guam-president-results