New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump wins every county, sadly.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Colleen Cronin
Jan. 23, 2024, 1:57 p.m. ET9 minutes ago
9 minutes ago
Colleen Cronin

In Peterborough, N.H., there hasn’t been a lag in voters, even as lunchtime hit. By 1:30 p.m., more than 1,400 people had voted out of the 5,109 who were registered, according to Linda Guyette, the town clerk. “That’s pretty good,” Guyette said. Many of the voters have picked up Republican ballots, and Guyette said she might need to copy and sign more.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I’ll go against the grain here a bit. I think that the increased GOP “turnout” (or uptake, more likely) we’re seeing is indeed good for Haley, but bad for Biden. Granted, I don’t think much should be gleaned from Biden’s performance here no matter the results.

Why?

It’s just a hunch based on vibes, but I could see some Dem leaners crossing over to vote Haley to stop Trump. Anyone that’s committed to voting Phillips or Williamson probably is set in that, whereas the Biden voters seem like a softer target for Haley due to the lack of a truly competitive Dem primary and the idea that Biden is inevitable, but that there’s at least a minuscule chance to stop Trump.

I remember that's what sunk Sanders in 2016 in Illinois and Missouri.

He told his voters that Trump must be stopped, so they voted in the GOP primary and not for Sanders, costing him the nomination but not stopping Trump.

Yep, definitely widened Hillary's margin in Ohio as well.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I originally predicted a very narrow win for Trump of 48% to Haley's 45%.  Based on the new polling data and the updated turnout projections of 300,000+, I am changing my prediction to a Haley win:

Haley 50%
Trump 46%
Others 4%

If this actually holds, I also predict that the SC primary may be in play.

I want to believe this but it's hard. The MI error happened because there hadn't been a remotely competitive Dem Primary there since 1992. We had a competitive NH R primary just 8 years ago in which Trump won a strong plurality.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How is it possible that Chris Wallace is the only one making sense on the CNN panel? Even if Haley does well tonight, this matters little considering that Republican voters are going for Trump by huge margins and the rest of the contests are only Republican voters.

Some of the rest of the contests are closed but others aren't. SC, despite reporting, is actually open, it just lacks same day registration. MI is a closed caucus but an open primary, and both  have influence on delegates. My home state of Minnesota is open. California, with its motherload of Delegates, lets indies vote.

Also closed means different things in different places. Some have pretty lenient registration deadlines.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Haley! Haley!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nikki Haley
1,848   +53.3%53.3%   
No delegates—
Donald J. Trump
1,594   +46.0%46.0   
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
4,057 +51.7%51.7%
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
3,746 +47.7%47.7
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
7,073   +52.6%52.6%   
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
6,315   +46.9%46.9   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not entirely sure what average Wasserman is using, but it's clear that Haley isn't just breaking 40%, she's shattering it. It's not a winning number, but it probably would have been if DeSantis was still a candidate....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

2024 polls do not show a year like 2022. Remember, Trump and his candidates always do the best when Trump himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, I and many other left leaning voters just want a contest where we know the country will be OK regardless of the result. No one needs to spend 4 days worrying about PA again.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749950152381493252?s=20

Honestly he should get banned from X for making a call when people are still voting. This is really getting tiring.

He’s not a media outlet. His declarations are meaningless.

He definitely acts like one

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION: TRUMP & BIDEN WIN NH PRIMARY

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My guess is she doesn't drop out tonight but throws in the towel sometime in the next month before SC.

Yeah she already has scheduled rallies in SC that she doesn't want to cancel. But she will drop out before SC actually votes in all likelihood.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nikki Haley currently thanking God for losing by 8-10 points... optimism is a positive trait I suppose

There definitely was a polling miss and she did lead the count for a bit. It's not what we dreamed of but Suffolk has a ton of egg on its face.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A review of what is coming up before Super Tuesday:

SC is Open, but you have to have been registered 30 days in advance (NH has SDR)
MI is an Open Primary but more weight is given to the Closed Caucus
Idaho/Virgin Islands/Missouri are Closed Caucuses
ND is an Open Caucus
NV has an Open Non-Binding Primary but only the Closed Caucus matters.
DC is a Closed Primary, but the DC Republican Party voted very differently than basically any other R Primary in 2016.

There are possibilities for Haley but it's not a great lineup.