Congressional Leadership Megathread - McCarthy elected Speaker after 15 ballots, 4 days

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SNIP

Presently, Gaetz, Biggs, Good, and Rosendale have all expressed varying levels of dissatisfaction with McCarthy. That right there is likely enough to sink him, which they know. We are currently at McCarthy trying to woo these guys back on board stage of negotiations (See Hunter Biden) before they say they would only support Scalise or worse - one of their own.

What we will have to see about is if said bending over backward causes those on the other side of the party to break. Once again, they don't need to be true moderates, just power-hungry non-radicals who want all the committee chairs, speaker seat, and are willing to promise the dems that the ship will remain stable.

Assuming Republicans win CA-22 and CA-13, those four defections would put McCarthy at 218 - which is the bare minimum needed.

Of course, this is assuming that Good/Rosendale/Biggs/Gaetz vote present, or against McCarthy. If they don't vote at all, then the threshold for the speakership is 216, which McCarthy would be above.

Of course if they're demanding concessions, my assumption would be that they're threatening to actually sink him rather than abstain as a protest.

No chance that you get moderate Rs to back Jeffries, but I think Pelosi could convince all the Dems to vote for a "compromise" Speaker. Question becomes, who are the 5 moderate Rs to vote with the Dems? And does Gatez' team cave and pick McCarthy to avoid Speaker Don Bacon/Henry Ceullar/Josh Gottheimer?

Actually, voting Present effectively counts as an abstention in the speaker vote, as you can see in this record of the 2021 speaker vote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election

In order for a vote against to be meaningful, one must actually call out the name of an alternative candidate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/jaredpolis/status/1593689568548560896?s=20&t=Y5-EZGvEI6_...

That would unironically be a great experiment, but it obviously won't happen.

FWIW, the house historically did consider most bills under an open amendment process. But beginning during the Gingrich Speakership that started to change. In the mid-2000s and again in 2011-2013, David Dreier tried to use his influence as Chair of the Rules Committee to re-open the process, but his initial successor Louise Slaughter and his later successor Pete Sessions (especially after Boehner left the Speakership) both just locked up the process even more. And the duo of Speaker Pelosi and Chairman McGovern have arguably been even worse than the Ryan/Sessions duo was. It would take a lot to go back to truly regular order at this point. But I would love to see it happen.

Apparently GOP and Democratic centrists are considering their options if the vote goes to a second ballot: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/21/gop-centrists-flex-muscles-00069541

Also there is a weird outside chance scenario, if McCarthy's GOP detractors vote present instead of voting for an actual alternative name, where Jeffries actually could win the Speakership. But very low chance that actually occurs.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I feel like the path is being greased for Clyburn either as Minority Leader or as a compromise Speaker (I assume he'd be more acceptable to progressives than Jefferies, given some of the hatred I've seen against Jefferies online).

If you're referring to a compromise Speaker for this congress (2023) progressives would not be on board or needed. It'll be a majority of Republicans allying with problem solvers and maybe some mainline folks. As for future congresses, perhaps.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCarthy is starting to admit that he doesn't have the votes:

“We will only be successful if we work together, or we’ll lose individually,” he claimed. “This is very fragile — that we’re the only stop-gap for this Biden administration. And if we don’t do this right, the Democrats can take the majority.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/leader-mccarthy-speakership-mayorkas/2022/11/28/id/1098278/

Second Ballot! Compromise Speaker here we come!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCarthy still floundering as the Freedom Caucus holds firm and Centrist Ds and Rs begin speculating as to a compromise speaker that could obtain 218: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/friends-critics-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-00071489

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

👀
https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1598450042012327936

Lots of Intriguing options:

Trump? Trump Jr.? Ivanka? Eric?
Gingrich? Haley? Zeldin?
Oz? Masters? Kari Lake? Walker if he loses?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An Opening Bid by Democrats for a Compromise Speaker: Retiring Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI)
https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/12-2-2022/mccarthy-upton-speaker/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If McCarthy agrees to always put continuing resolutions and debt limit increases up for a vote, that's a major concession. Basically the only thing a GOP-controlled House can do is obstruct must-pass legislation to blackmail Biden into making concessions. Take that leverage away, and Speaker McCarthy is basically a placeholder. I'd say it's a deal worth taking.

Why would you take him at his word?

You can always force a change if something goes wrong. Jeffries calls a motion to vacate the chair, and the Ds and Freedom Caucus unite to oust McCarthy. Electing a new Speaker would be an entirely separate vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some ideas on how McCarthy could win democratic votes:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/3760075-a-courageous-way-for-mccarthy-to-secure-the-speakership-and-benefit-the-country/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjH2uW-x977AhVeg4kEHYYjBLkQFnoECBAQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2jyksJPLEAtwz5_uDtch92

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

"Some moderates and mainstream Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with their colleagues’ threats to cause chaos on the floor. And some of them have a warning of their own: if the vote goes to a second ballot or more, they plan to just keep voting for McCarthy – potentially foiling the anti-McCarthy group’s plans to force him out of contention in the hopes of getting lawmakers to rally around an alternative."


The Biggs gang has no leverage. The voting keeps going on and on, until it becomes obvious that McCarthy will do what it takes to get some Dem votes, and kick the Biggs gang out of the caucus.  

Why on earth would the Democrats vote for anyone else than Jeffries?

Because they are offered incentives to do so. At some point after x number of ballots with no one security a majority of the votes, public opinion would force it, particularly in swing problem solver districts.

It’s not our job to save Republicans from their own incompetence.  If they can’t agree on a Speaker after 250 ballots, that’s their problem and voters certainly won’t blame Democrats for it.  Anyone who doesn’t hold the line should be cast out of the caucus like a leper, stripped of all committee assignments, and primaried.

Problem is, some of those problem solver type districts (Gottheimer, Craig, Slotkin, Spanberger, Cartwright, Golden) would elect a Republican over a dedicated liberal, and democrats need those seats for a majority.

This does not pass the smell test. What on earth incentive is there for any of these people to offer their vote for McCarthy? They wouldn't gain any favor among any voters back in their districts from doing so.

He'll dole out a few committee Chairmanships to moderate Dems, sign a pledge to make their amendments in order and give them earmarks, and pledge to allow the House to vote on keeping government open and raising the debt ceiling. Also, it might not even be McCarthy- Speaker Fred Upton, perhaps?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lo and behold, Mr. Clyburn, the man who crowned Biden king, has been channeling the Torie man. Praises Jesus.  It won't happen though. The kook caucus is gonna fold.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3762602-clyburn-to-mccarthy-use-democrats-to-secure-speakership/

Clyburn may be ready to forge the deal for a compromise Speaker, but Jeffries doesn't appear to be: Hakeem Jeffries Casts Doubt On Dems Supporting Kevin McCarthy Speaker Challenger
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hakeem-jeffries-kevin-mccarthy-speakership_n_638dc5f0e4b09eeedb9ece5b

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An important point in this Article: Even if Dems can't bring themselves to affirmatively vote for a compromise Speaker, they can still vote present to help enable it. Such vote still counts for quorum purposes but not for determining how many votes are needed to be elected - one only needs a majority of the votes cast for an individual.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/06/mccarthy-house-gop-speakership-00072553

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Many incoming Committee Chairs urging support for McCarthy:
https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/12-19-2022/mccarthy-chairmen-backers/

Several notable admissions though - the incoming chairs for House Administration, Rules, Ethics, Education and Labor, Budget, Homeland Security, and Ways and Means are all absent from the letter.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly, I would be surpisred if McCarthy wins on the first ballot because a bunch of Democrats just don't attend. You only need a majority of those present. Pelosi won with 216 votes.

If Democrats were smart, they would all attend and help elect a moderate republican. That would be much better for the country instead of having MTG controlled McCarthy.

But honestly, I've been disgusted with what some Democrats are saying. They are looking forward to the dumpster fire McCarthy's speakership is going to be. How about stop focusing on 2024 and on helping Americans from 2023-2025 ugh.

Well at least as of now, those Moderate Rs don't seem open to any deal on either side:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/29/battleground-republicans-vote-mccarthy-speaker-00075846

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Republican Main Street Partnership, composing 70 members, including some known for working across the aisle, has come together behind an 'only kevin' statement: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/30/gop-leader-votes-kevin-mccarthy-00075867

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roll Call has managed to reveal that if forced to choose, the 'o.k.' crowd would rather strike a Deal with Dems to elect Fred Upton Speaker, instead of capitulating to a Freedom Caucus choice. https://rollcall.com/2022/12/30/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election/ (scroll to end)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roll Call has managed to reveal that if forced to choose, the 'o.k.' crowd would rather strike a Deal with Dems to elect Fred Upton Speaker, instead of capitulating to a Freedom Caucus choice. https://rollcall.com/2022/12/30/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election/ (scroll to end)

ROTFL imagine actually thinking Fred Upton would be anything other than a complete non-starter for Democrats

I'm just reporting what is being pursued here. But hey, the beauty of a Speaker election is that you only need 218. The Freedom Caucus and the Progressive Caucus can each rage in their respective corners. Still leaves 291 members (accounting for the vacancy in VA-04) to come together behind a consensus choice.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roll Call has managed to reveal that if forced to choose, the 'o.k.' crowd would rather strike a Deal with Dems to elect Fred Upton Speaker, instead of capitulating to a Freedom Caucus choice. https://rollcall.com/2022/12/30/speaker-race-headed-toward-dramatic-floor-election/ (scroll to end)

ROTFL imagine actually thinking Fred Upton would be anything other than a complete non-starter for Democrats

I'm just reporting what is being pursued here. But hey, the beauty of a Speaker election is that you only need 218. The Freedom Caucus and the Progressive Caucus can each rage in their respective corners. Still leaves 291 members (accounting for the vacancy in VA-04) to come together behind a consensus choice.

Someone’s been watching too much West Wing

Never watched an Episode of that lmao.