Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does anyone think Pelosi's threat to hold the infrastructure bill hostage to a reconciliation package will hold up? It seems to me she will have to accept what both Sinema and Manchin are willing to accept, and if it drags out, she might face a discharge petition to at least get the infrastructure bill passed. I don't think the hold hostage approach will be popular (particular if interest and inflation begin to inch up), and the optics are terrible. Team Sanders and Pelosi at least in public seem to act as if they have cards to play in their deck, that I at least can't discern myself.  Am I missing something here?

I am skeptical a discharge petition would ever be used against Pelosi. It takes a remarkable circumstance for it to be used and she has good if not perfect control of her caucus.

It's far easier to do it than it would be in most congresses because of the narrow margin.
Even if only half as many Dems would sign on as the number of Rs that signed the 2018 immigration discharge attempt, it would have the votes to go forward. It's important to remember that the "calendar monday only" rule that the GOP used to limit opportunity for the immigration petition was eliminated in a compromise with the problem solvers caucus when Pelosi became Speaker - short of adjourning the House for the rest of the year, there's nothing Pelosi can do if the signatures are there. And they might be eventually.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate is trying to get an agreement for various amendment votes and final passage to happen overnight or tomorrow. The Eunice Lee cloture vote is being held open while Senators continue to talk on the floor.

If there is no deal, Senators will take a series of procedural votes over the weekend:

Saturday: Cloture on Schumer Manager's Amendment, as amended by the previous amendments
Sunday: Final on Schumer Amendment, Cloture on Bill
Monday: Motion to Override Budget Point of Order (if needed), Final on Bill.

Once this bill is passed the Senate will start on the budget resolution.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1423491554338123779

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1424141653015777281

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Biden's American Jobs Plan (albeit much shrunken) on the road to becoming the law of the land, should we start a separate thread for the American Families' Plan in the form of the $3.5 trillion budget bill being pushed by Senate Democrats under reconciliation, or shall we continue using this same thread for that too?  

I would keep it on the same thread. Especially since the House won't pass anything until at least late September and there's no real reason for us to be jumping between threads for the next couple months or so.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1424528128425222146
https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1424533068866629638?s=20

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1424538686771843075


Final passage vote will be at 3:11 AM ET on 8/10, unless the sides agree to shorten the debate. We expect the process on the budget resolution to begin immediately after this vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Series of amendment votes from both sides to the budget currently happening on the floor if people are interested.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1426147926888361985

Dumb

The House GOP should offer to make up votes for the bipartisan bill to pass on its own if doing so means the Progressive Dem threatens to sink such a bill. 

Problem is just that House Republicans in general are much more nuts than Senate Republicans. The fact that even Mitch voted for the bill should convince few, but not that many I guess.

This, plus McConnell and his caucus know they can't be too obstructionist or Manchin/Sinema/Warner/etc may suddenly flip on keeping the filibuster. There are no minority rights in the House anymore - they're lucky to get to offer their doomed to fail amendments to bills even - 61% of the time this congress the floor process has been a completely closed one - so there's no reason for McCarthy and his caucus to ever provide "help"

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She's calling their bluff:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1427733257488060423

I'd like to remind everybody that this is Pelosi whom we're talking about here, & she doesn't move forward on a vote 'til she already knows that she has the votes. So, she clearly has the votes. Bet against her - & go broke - at your own peril.

Yeah, she knows how things work. For one, the GOP caucus usually isn't at full attendance - I know the media loves their dems can only lose 3 line, but on most days they can get away with losing 6,8,10 due to GOP members who are against proxy voting on principle and don't show up on any given day for whatever reason.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Appears a deal is reached. House will shortly vote on a resolution that deems the budget passed (of course we still need the actual reconciliation bill, check back next month) and also requires the House to consider the bipartisan bill no later than September 27th (it is a binding/automatic vote at that time) regardless of the status of reconciliation.

It's going to be close but it should pass.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1430210309604745225
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1430225243868651520
Does it mean, that the plan is, that they vote for Bipartisan Bill by Sep 27th, and for reconciliation by Oct 1st?

What they are about to pass specifically requires bipartisan vote to be Sept. 27 or earlier - i.e. vote starts automatically on Sept. 27.

Reconciliation may happen before or after.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

it's finally happening?

Reconciliation won’t be done by 10/1.  That means Sinema and Manchin (DINOs - Koch Caucus) are going to go to work on the reconciliation bill like vultures on a fresh corpse.  Don’t be fooled by Pelosi’s spin, we just lost our leverage.  This is a Waterloo-level disaster.

Reconciliation is supposed to be ready for the floor by 9/15 according to timelines that have been laid out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is so confusing to me.

Do these moderates who I’m normally in line with - not realize how politically helpful passing this bill will be? They’re committing political suicide here

The number one thing for the house moderates is making sure the Senate's bipartisan efforts don't go to waste. If something happens where the reconciliation bill can't pass they still want the bipartisan bill to have its chance. Further they want to eliminate any chance that the passage of the reconciliation bill would dampen the desire to do the bipartisan bill.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RepCloakroom/status/1430252625384071172

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RepCloakroom/status/1430261459976704000

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans voting against this are pathetic.

is this for the 3.5t infrastructure bill?

Budget for it yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moderate Nine Terrorists lost today how embarrassing for them

I mean the language approved is much more firm with regards to setting the bipartisan bill vote date than it was originally going to be. Not a total win but not a complete loss either.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The commitment to vote on the infrastructure bill by September 27 is non-binding, but the leadership does appear to have lost some leverage today (assuming it was even invested in winning this struggle to begin with).

So much for Pelosi the Incredible Negotiator.

Actually it is basically binding - the way the rule is written, the only way to change it to a later date is to have the whole house explicitly approve the date change - meaning the moderates would have to sign off on any change.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Actually, after reading the article below, it is clear that the squad types don't have enough votes to stop anything, and I expect them to be kicked to the curb in due course.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/17/liberals-progressives-democrat-agenda-512621

I don't get what in that article is indicating that for you. Half their caucus voting against leaves it many votes shy of passing with dems alone. And there's nothing there about a bunch of Republicans who are going to come on board.

There are Pub votes for infrastructure. There were 19 of them in the Senate.

The Progressive caucus is like 95 members. You would need like 40 GOP Ayes with half the progressives opposed. Idk if that level of GOP support is there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Actually, after reading the article below, it is clear that the squad types don't have enough votes to stop anything, and I expect them to be kicked to the curb in due course.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/17/liberals-progressives-democrat-agenda-512621

I don't get what in that article is indicating that for you. Half their caucus voting against leaves it many votes shy of passing with dems alone. And there's nothing there about a bunch of Republicans who are going to come on board.

There are Pub votes for infrastructure. There were 19 of them in the Senate.

The Progressive caucus is like 95 members. You would need like 40 GOP Ayes with half the progressives opposed. Idk if that level of GOP support is there.

Not to mention Democratic leadership clearly want the reconcillation passed in full. If half the progressive caucus is voting nay, I wouldn't be surpised if leadership supports them by not even allowing floor vote. If Pelosi votes nay, expect several more Democrats to vote nay. Clyburn is already sayign that it may not be ready for a Sept 27 vote, which means not floor vote without reconcillation. If he votes nay, expect the CBC to vote nay

Unfortunately for Pelosi, according to the rule moderates forced her to pass in August, the vote is set in stone for Sep. 27 or earlier. Any change would require the moderates to sign off. So the vote will occur. There's simply no way around it. But she can refuse to whip it of course.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House is currently debating the bipartisan bill

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House is currently debating the bipartisan bill

Debate has paused with 10 minutes left on each side. Debate will resume on another legislative day.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House is currently debating the bipartisan bill

Debate has paused with 10 minutes left on each side. Debate will resume on another legislative day.

Debate was completed today. A recorded vote was requested. The vote was postponed.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hearing bipartisan bill vote will happen around 9 pm tonight.