IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.
Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.
Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.
