I never said it precludes the possibility. Indeed, Democrats are clearly favored here, as I said. Leans is not a marginal advantage.
The notion they are overwhelming favorites here, however, is silly.
Not quite sure I get your link, as I don't see any polls listed there yet nor do I recall any posted here. Are you just linking that so we can see polls as they roll in, with some of them (presumably, in others' opinions) indicating large Baldwin leads?
This should work. Shows her up 14 over Clarke (49-35) and 13 over Duffy (49-36), who is basically the embodiment of generic R. This is from February, but the national environment hasn't gotten any better for Republicans since then.
I don't think placing it in the same category as MT, WV, OH, etc. makes any sense.
It depends on how wide your lean category is. My lean category, for instance, goes all the way from a 55% chance of Victory to an 84% chance of victory. One should not assume that two races are equally competitive based solely on the fact that they are in the same category.
