GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Actually, most networks had ND and IN as Tossups on election day, and IN was definitely considered to be in play. For some reason, McCain did significantly better in ND than predicted, though. Maybe the polling there just sucked.

CNN or RCP marking something as a Toss-Up is pretty meaningless, since it's just really a polling map - anyone could do it. Among those who actually predicted a winner in the state, very few predicted an Obama win in ND or IN.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

It wouldn't have been enough. Let's assume there were 10k ED votes in those precincts (probably too high, but using for the sake of argument) and they split 7-3 for Ossoff.

New Totals:

Jon Ossoff
97,390   48.8%

All Others
102,239 51.2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

Sorry I guess not everybody was watching on E-day. I can confirm that those places were early vote only. The results there came in with the rest of the early results. Look at the 2016 turnout levels and compare them to the ones on the Ossof map. If they included the E-day numbers that would mean a voter turnout less than 10% of the 2016 turnout. That's obviously ridiculous given the much higher numbers in the rest of the district.

Still, per my calculations, an additional 10k votes going 7-3 ossoff wouldn't have been enough. And Georgia moderate is right that the Ds would have launched a lawsuit if it was enough.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Handel made an honorable and courageous decision at Komen, but right now we need Ossoff in congress to lessen the power of Trump.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Handel made an honorable and courageous decision at Komen, but right now we need Ossoff in congress to lessen the power of Trump.

Yet apparently not Quist, who would probably vote in almost exactly the same way on everything.

I admit that not endorsing Quist is a decision I have questioned, but I just can't endorse someone who is open about voting for and liking Bernie.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sanders has done extensive work to help normalize Socialism in this country.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I have to say if Ossoff does win it is in no small part that Handel is doing nothing but fundraising an like Hillary is taking votes for granted

There's really not too much more to be done, aside from the occasional rally and GOTV work in the week or two before the election. Essentially every voter in the district has been contacted by both campaigns, some have been contacted multiple times.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, with the MT result, this race is now a must-win for dems, as they're not going to win SC-5 or UT-3.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, with the MT result, this race is now a must-win for dems, as they're not going to win SC-5 or UT-3.

I'd disagree that any of these races are "must win". They need to be seen as what they are--heavy D shifts in R areas, even if not winnable races, that could signal 10-15 point R seats could be up for grabs in 2018--a lesson that if the voters show up, and can make safe seats this close, then they can certainly swing some tilt or lean R seats. Treating them as anything else is a great way to spook Democrats into not showing up in 2018, seeing "sure thing" seats as being hopeless.

It will be very tough for dems to take the house without winning one of these special elections. GA-6 is their last chance.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Yes, if we assume Ossoff can't do any better among ED voters than he did in the jungle, which obviously isn't true.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

We haven't had a general election runoff in Georgia since '08 - a Political millennium ago.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The first Ossoff-Handel debate is Tuesday night from 8pm-9pm EDT, and will be live streamed on WSB's website and Facebook page.  Links are in this article: http://www.wftv.com/news/trending-now/karen-handel-jon-ossoff-to-debate-live-on-wsbtv/528693479

ETA: originally had the wrong date.

Wow, Tuesday night is really full now. New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary, this debate, CA-34 Runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Judging by the way the debate went, Ossoff definitely has a lead. Handel threw everything and the kitchen sink at him and he just shruged it off. I will give her credit that her question of "Who'ee you voting for Jon" was her most effective remark tonight. But that is due more to how terrible her performance and debate skills are.

What's this whole "Who are you voting for,  John?" thing? In their election? In the 2016 race?

Oh, lemme guess. For Speaker of the House?

He lives just outside of the district, so he can't vote for himself. (He's said he'll move into the district if he wins)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early vote through today by county:

Cobb 10623 (16.9%)
DeKalb 15618 (24.8%)
Fulton 36722 (58.3%)
Total 62963

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Glad to see a lot less Cobb in this electorate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ossoff has now raised $23M; 15M of it since the first round of the primary.

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Can we stop the meme that Ossoff is getting his money in "huge" amounts?

That particular attack line is more about the location of the donations, and not necessarily the amount. For better or for worse, the vast, vast majority of donations to the Ossoff campaign are from out of state, and a number of them are from Nancy Pelosi's congressional district.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

Stunning that Trump is only at 33% in a district that voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Trump's deep unpopularity could cause a tsunami the nasty Republican gerrymanders could not have predicted in these wealthy suburbs. Places like suburban Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston will be big pickup opportunities in 2018.

I don't believe in uniform swings, and it's conceivable to me that Trump has fallen more in a district like this one than he would have fallen in a seat like, say, IA-4.

What is interesting is how fast things appear to be moving in GA.  Historically it would take another 10-20 years for a congressional district that went from a landslide to a statistical tie at the presidential level to be statistically tied or won by the opposition party at the congressional level.  Now, it's happening in less than a year.

As I've said before, a lot of votes for Price last november were to place a check on Clinton, who everyone assumed would be elected President. With Trump that factor is gone.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump records robocall attacking Ossoff as a “tax-raising pro-illegal immigration Democrat” : http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/trump-robocall-slams-tax-raising-ossoff-in-georgia-6th-race/

Trump's approval rating in the district is 33%, according to the recent AJC poll.  This is supposed to help Handel?

This is the stupidest thing I think Handel could have done, moreso than the liveable wage moment. His disapproval here is probably roughly in line with the country's, if not worse (I don't believe 33% though).

She really is the Martha Coakley of the South

Yeah, that was pretty worthless, to say the least. She probably wants to rally her base, but a) this might alienate the kind of voters that she needs and b) This is not a "Make America Great Again"-type district.

Some people think it is a #MAGA district though: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/09/georgia-special-election-trump-239372

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

Unless Parnell somehow wins SC-5, it would greatly depress progressive activists who are desperate for any weakening in Trump's power, and create a message that Dems can't win outside of places like CA-34. Also, I don't really see the Dems getting the house in '18 if this seat stays R, and picking it up in '18 will be much harder than doing it now due to incumbency.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

I can't tell you what this email means, but they do not think they are losing this race right now.

They're not going to admit they think they're losing to you, because then they risk you spreading that info and widening Handel's margin of victory, which adds to the Dems can't win narrative. They wouldn't release that memo if they believed they have the race locked up.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

I can't tell you what this email means, but they do not think they are losing this race right now.

They're not going to admit they think they're losing to you, because then they risk you spreading that info and widening Handel's margin of victory, which adds to the Dems can't win narrative. They wouldn't release that memo if they believed they have the race locked up.

They don't think it's locked up and I never said that. Also, you shouldn't assume the nature of my relationships.

Unless you have some personal connection to the head of the DCCC, they will probably tell you they think they're going to win no matter what to stay on the safe side. Also I didn't say you were saying that the race is locked up, just that if the Dems were confident of victory, they wouldn't release that memo.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GOP pollsters Trafalgar Group have it: Ossoff 50 Handel 47

There polls were super Republican in 2016, but most ended up being pretty accurate.

Trafalgar polled the LA runoff and the SC R runoff excellently. Their only error in 2016 was NV, which is ridiculously hard to poll. I'd imagine these numbers are pretty spot on. But remember that undecideds in Georgia go basically 100% republican, so this is basically a 50/50 finding.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, can we please stop the #AtlasPanic? Just calm down and forget this race even exists until the 20th.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One of the amusing things about this race is the overenthusiasm of people placing Ossoff signs (they vastly outnumber Handel signs).  One busy intersection near my office started with one Ossoff sign and one Handel sign.  Then it went to 3 Ossoff signs, then 4, and today 5.  (There's still only one Handel sign.)  This isn't an isolated occurrence.  I've even seen some well outside the district boundary in Forsyth County.

Ughhhhh. I'd hate to be the field organizer here. People who think that lawn signs in public places do anything to persuade anyone are so frustrating.

While lawn signs are hardly some master strategy, they can help on the margins due to the natural human desire to conform to what everyone else appears to be doing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whats the rules for recounts?

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http://ceimn.org/ceimn-state-recount-laws-searchable-database/states/Georgia

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

The party has made it clear that they'd rather lose with a neoliberal than win with a progressive. Hillary had a 67% not honest and trustworthy rating during the primary, and they decided to nominate her over someone who polled much better in the general election. And those progressives who get the nomination don't get a lot of help from their party: Feingold, Teachout, Quist, and so on. The DNC was money laundering $350k donations back to the Hillary campaign from the Hillary Victory Fund during the primary to get around the $2700 donation limit, since that's nothing for Hillary's fat cat donors. The establishment has worked hard to the contempt of progressives.

lol

I'm not sure where he came up with that money laundering accusation, but the earlier sentences are true.