GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Landmark poll:

Ossoff 49.6 (+0.5)
Handel 47.1 (-0.5)

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/08/wsb-poll-ossoff-pushes-50-percent-in-georgia-6th-race/

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Landmark poll:

Ossoff 49.6 (+0.5)
Handel 47.1 (-0.5)

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/08/wsb-poll-ossoff-pushes-50-percent-in-georgia-6th-race/

A few tidbits:

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[Gass3268]

New Landmark poll:

Ossoff 49.6 (+0.5)
Handel 47.1 (-0.5)

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/08/wsb-poll-ossoff-pushes-50-percent-in-georgia-6th-race/

Not a good trend line here for Handel

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[OneJ]

I find it interesting that they state that Ossoff has a "majority" rather than "plurality." Handel has the Republican base (despite an unimpressive 15% backing Ossoff). Her two main issues here are her deficit among women (unsurprisingly) and her deficit among Independents (which Trump, Barksdale & other Republicans in Georgia's past have won and won handily too).

Although Handel's still got time, it's evaporating quickly and she has to do something that'll make her seem less "fake" or "uninspiring" because otherwise it will be an embarrassing defeat to her in a district that is usually very safe for Republicans in modern history and one where Trump is still (if i am not mistaken) slightly popular.

EDIT: Also, as others have said already that trend is something Handel should worry about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL:

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At this point, I'd bet that Ossoff is more recognizable in Atlanta than Nathan Deal or Kasim Reed.

[heatcharger]

Wow, I woke up from my nap to some great news around the world, including here! Still, way too much time for Republicans to rally around the flag and put Handel into Congress. Things are looking good though.

LOL:

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At this point, I'd bet that Ossoff is more recognizable in Atlanta than Nathan Deal or Kasim Reed.

With the amount of cash that's been infused, that's not too surprising.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

Man Cobb is not coming out for Handel

[Holmes]

Looks like EV turnout is returning to more normal levels but still ridiculously high for a special.

[Tintrlvr]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

Man Cobb is not coming out for Handel

One factor may have been that Cobb had a favorite son in the first round but not in the second. If Judson Hill was focused on Cobb County and ginning up turnout there in the first round (a sensible decision, since he only had to beat Handel, not Ossoff, in the first round), the lack of his presence in the second round could be felt in terms of organization and enthusiasm there. Same for other regions with R candidates who lost, but Hill was the most regional of them and had little support outside of Cobb.

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Not much change in proportions through today's update:

Cobb 12422 (16.5%)
DeKalb 18644 (24.7%)
Fulton 44397 (58.8%)
Total 75463

Man Cobb is not coming out for Handel

One factor may have been that Cobb had a favorite son in the first round but not in the second. If Judson Hill was focused on Cobb County and ginning up turnout there in the first round (a sensible decision, since he only had to beat Handel, not Ossoff, in the first round), the lack of his presence in the second round could be felt in terms of organization and enthusiasm there. Same for other regions with R candidates who lost, but Hill was the most regional of them and had little support outside of Cobb.

Which is not good for Handel

[Nyvin]

Between the polling and the turnout so far I don't see how this can't be described as lean D at this point.

[Brittain33]

Between the polling and the turnout so far I don't see how this can't be described as lean D at this point.

Agreed. I'm still gunshy about drawing conclusions from early voting after November, but Ossoff overperformed his polls in round 1 and it's hard to imagine the environment favoring Handel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New AJC poll: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Ossoff 51
Handel 44

1000 RV, MOE 4%

[The Other Castro]

New AJC poll: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Ossoff 51
Handel 44

1000 RV, MOE 4%

Nice, Ossoff is now consistently hitting or crossing 50%.

[The Ex-Factor]

Dominating!

The poll trendline is very promising for Dems.

[Brittain33]

Lean D, confirmed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Funny isn't 51-44 also the number USA today had?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny isn't 51-44 also the number USA today had?

I don't know about USA Today, but 11Alive (Atlanta NBC station) had 51-44 on May 23: http://www.11alive.com/news/politics/elections/ballot/exclusive-11alive-poll-ossoff-leads-51-to-handels-44/441904679

[Sir Mohamed]

Funny isn't 51-44 also the number USA today had?

Yes, correct. I twice checked the date, whether it wasn't an old poll. Looks like this race is really turning into the Ossoff’s direction, though I wouldn't take it for granted. The numbers are very encouraging, but it’s still not safe. I’d rate the race as of now lean D at best, possibly still toss-up.

[Gass3268]

I'm not willing to go all the way to Lean Dem, but Tilt Dem seems acceptable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updated AJC article with more information: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ossoff-has-the-edge-over-handel-ajc-poll-6th-district-race/YYuw1laXZXsKzqq52f4EeN/

Two big factors: Trump and health care.

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[Gass3268]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

[Holmes]

~33% approval for Trump and ~25% approval for the AHCA in a suburban Atlanta district? Dunno if I buy that completely but if the numbers are anywhere near that next fall nationwide, Republicans are going to have a rough midterm.