2018 Senate Rankings

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arkansas in the same group as Missouri? Really? At least McCaskill is within single digits. Any Republican will lead any Democrat in Arkansas polls by at least 15 points.

Likely, but not certain. Don't want to completely count out Beebe and/or Pryor

Also, I don't think Arkansas will open up, the #Rexit rumors have certainly been debunked by Trump himself.

Meh, maybe, maybe not. No rush here, it's still 2017. I'll leave it there's for a month or so and can always remove it if nothing happens by then.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MO: Likely R --> Lean R

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (1): AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two Senate races in Mississippi in 2018 will likely be similar to when the same event happened in 2008. The regular election will involve the incumbent dominating over token opposition, while Democrats will run a supposedly good candidate for the special but still lose comfortably. I will put the Special at Likely R out of an abundance of caution, but I really don't see how a Dem wins.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (2): AR*, MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there a particular reason that Ohio is leans Republican other than a 6-month old poll from a pro-Trump group where Brown outran the rosy Trump approval spread?

It's gigantic republican swing in 2016. I would be willing to reconsider that rating if more polling came out, but for now all we have to go by is the 2016 swing and the couple of early polls that show Brown behind.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tillerson throws cold water on the idea of him resigning, so the tentative rating for AR has been removed: http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/05/politics/tillerson-trump-mental-fitness/index.html

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And uh, Ohio moves from Lean R to Lean D in light of Mandel's withdrawal.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (7): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

New Years Resolution to stop trolling atlas?

Perhaps, but most New Year's Resolutions are broken within a week or two.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

He was leading Brown in all available public polling. Also the GOP has only a month to find a replacement, who will have to start raising money from scratch very fast, lest Brown outspend them by too much early on.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ratings after ND change:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (8): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PA becoming safer than before.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (7): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (7): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PA becoming safer than before.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (7): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (7): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

what changed in PA?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=283212.0

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Susana Martinez isn't running, so New Mexico moves to Safe D:
https://www.abqjournal.com/1121240/martinez-addresses-her-future-sort-of.html

Also, January is over now, and Cochran is still in the Senate, so apparently the idea of him resigning was fake news. So I removed the tentative rating for MS-Special.

Safe D (12): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM
Likely D (6): MI, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (7): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (0): N/A
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

North Dakota moves back to Toss-Up with Cramer in:

Safe D (12): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM
Likely D (6): MI, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (0): N/A
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As announced, MS-Special starts at Likely R. This rating could be quite volatile over the next few weeks as the Democratic and Republican Field becomes more clear.

Safe D (12): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM
Likely D (6): MI, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two changes as time to find great R candidates runs out:

ME: Likely D ---> Safe D
VA: Likely D ---> Safe D


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on tonight's R disaster in WI, moving the race from Lean D to Likely D:


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (5): MT, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Second day in a row of a rating change, and it is again a change that favors the Democrats - TN is now a Toss-Up!


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (5): MT, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (3): WV, ND, TN
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Florida joins the Toss-Up category.

Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (4): MT, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (4): WV, ND, TN, FL
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

UPDATE:

Update:

Changes:
Florida: Lean D -> Likely D
Indiana: Tossup -> Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Safe D (it's over now)

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin_us_5a4bd21ce4b0b0e5a7a91159

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's time to make several changes. MN-Special moves from Likely D to Safe D as no strong challenger to Tina Smith has surfaced. Following the SD-17 Special, Missouri moves from Lean R to Toss-Up. This is a magnificent comeback for the Democratic Party in a race that should not have even been all that competitive for them, and is mostly a result of Hawley and Grietens working together to turn a Likely R senate contest into a Toss-Up senate contest. However, in some good news for Republicans, now that it is clear that Rosendale will be the R nominee, MT-SEN is now a Toss-Up.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (3):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (6): WV, ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a crushing development for the GOP, the Senate race in the deeply Republican state of West Virginia goes from Toss-Up to Lean D.

Safe D (15): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, PA, WI
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

Lean D OH, Lean R IN, and Safe R TX = hackery

Brown +17=Lean D
Cruz +6=Safe R
Donnelly Tied=Lean R
McCaskill +4=Tossup
Manchin +10=Lean D

Hmm...

Right out of my document:

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As the election nears, it has become more and more apparent that the battle lines do not run through Michigan, and so that moves off the board into the Safe category. Also, due to Barletta's campaign being extremely pathetic with no change in that status over months, PA moves off the board. Finally, due to the nomination of a weak republican candidate, WI moves off the board.

Safe D (18): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA, MN-Special, MI, PA, WI
Likely D (1): NJ
Lean D (4):  NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, WV
Toss-Up (5): ND, TN, FL, MO, MT
Lean R (1): IN (D+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

As the ratings show, the battle for the senate runs through vulnerable republican seats, romney state dems, and Florida. Only two longshot republican hopes remain outside of the Safe Category - Ohio and New Jersey. Mostly because of the map, Republicans have an edge in retaining the chamber, with 49 seats at least leaning to them (including seats not up for election), and 46 seats at least leaning to the Democrats. However, Democrats can capture a narrow majority by simply sweeping the Toss-Ups - they do not need to keep Donnelly, worry about MS-Special, or hope the pundit wet dream of Texas somehow works out.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My actual, non-hackish senate ratings: