If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Honestly, Hillary has just been really lucky throughout her career of running for public office. I mean look at it:

2000: Hillary was supposed to face Rudy Giuliani, who would have been a very strong opponent. However, he dropped out of the race for health reasons, leaving her with the far weaker Rick Lazio, who put his foot in his mouth in a debate. Even then, she significantly underperformed Gore.

2006: YUGE Democratic Wave. Republicans were preoccupied with just trying to just hold on to the chamber, and Hillary was allowed to run basically unopposed.

2008 Primary: Hillary's only serious challenge. She loses.

2016 Primary: Prominent democrats endorse Hillary very early on, donating large chunks of money to her campaign to scare away a serious challenger. Her most notable challenger is a self-declared independent socialist from Vermont who nobody had ever heard of before. The DNC limited debate, took away Bernie's Voter Database until he sued them over it, gave her extra help behind the scenes, and got her several hundred superdelegate endorsements before a single vote was cast. But when the actual elections happened, Hillary hobbled through the first three contests. She then built up an insurmountable lead through victories in the South and Northeast on the backs of the black vote, but Bernie continued to maintain a significant presence and surprise people - the michigan miracle, nearly winning Obama-loving Illinois, winning every contest except Arizona that was held between March 16th and April 18th (including Democrats Abroad), and winning every caucus held in March or later. In the end, Hillary didn't clinch the nomination until June, and Sanders got several notable concessions in terms of the platform and redesigning the primary rules for 2020.

2016 General: Hillary's running against the worst out of the entire 17 candidate republican field and she's just barely ahead. Yeah, it's a polarized country. But she could still get 53,54,55 percent of the vote. Instead she just can't put Trump away, and is bleeding significant numbers of votes to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

Hillary is just a lucky candidate. She's not a good candidate. Against Kasich, Rubio, Christie, Pataki, Paul, Walker, Jebra, or Graham, she'd be toast.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

People who were planning to/open to voting for Trump but made a different decision at the booth definitely do exist - even in primaries he won convincingly, I don't remember Trump ever winning among late deciders according to exit polls, and I almost always watched the network coverage.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

People who were planning to/open to voting for Trump but made a different decision at the booth definitely do exist - even in primaries he won convincingly, I don't remember Trump ever winning among late deciders according to exit polls, and I almost always watched the network coverage.

That's a very good point.  There was a well-documented Shy Anti-Trump effect in the primaries until NY, so we actually have more evidence in favor of that than we do in favor of a Shy Trump effect.  In light of this, I'm surprised the Shy Trump idea's gotten so much traction in the first place.  When in doubt, I would assume the polls are accurate in aggregate.

I checked the exit polls for NY and later among late deciders. These are the results:

NY: Trump 44%, Kasich 39%, Cruz 17% (Anti-Trump 56%, Trump 44%)

PA: Trump 37%, Kasich 29%, Cruz 29%  (Anti-Trump 58%, Trump 37%) (5% refused to answer)

CT: Kasich 45%, Trump 38%, Cruz 12%, Uncommitted 4% (Anti-Trump 61%, Trump 38%) (1% refused to answer)

MD: Trump 37%, Kasich 35%, Cruz 22% (Anti-Trump 57%, Trump 37%) (6% refused to answer)

IN: Cruz 45%, Trump 42%, Kasich 11% (Anti-Trump 56%, Trump 42%) (2% refused to answer)

NE: Trump 59%, Cruz 19%, Kasich 10% (12% refused to answer)

WV: Trump 77%, Cruz 7%, Kasich 5% (11% refused to answer)

And comparison with the actual Trump %:

NY: 60% vs. 44% (-16)
CT: 58% vs. 38% (-20)
PA: 57% vs. 37% (-20)
MD: 54% vs. 37% (-17)
IN: 53% vs. 42% (-11)
NE: 61% vs. 59% (-2)
WV: 77% vs. 77% (+/- 0)

Outside of Nebraska and West Virginia, this is really pathetically weak. Particularly CT. Imagine if only late deciders had been allowed to vote in NY, CT, PA, MD, and IN. Cruz/Kasich would have stayed in and we would have probably gone to an open convention.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ok, what the hell is it with the Brexit nonsense? Brexit lead in the polls til election day and was favored to win by several models. Hell, even an exit poll showed a Brexit win. What the f**k guys?

A poll or two may have had leave ahead, but most dud not: 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/04/why-the-majority-of-brexit-polls-were-wrong.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Always surprises me how much undeserved confidence the Republicans always have on this forum when it's obvious that the party is going to lose. We had people in 2012 that were convinced Romney was going to win in a landslide right up until the polls closed. We had people in 2008 saying there was a noticeable shift in Pennsylvania and it was up for grabs and McCain was going to win and the upset the election still. We had people in 2006 saying how the polls are overestimating Democrats and the Republicans carried a good chance of retaining Congress still.

And here we are in 2016 with a new Trump brand of Republican supporters. Down 270- 179 in the State polling average and down at least 4 in the National polling average, and they are convinced that it is Democrats who should be nervous and on the verge of tears because they're not up by 20 points. If Trump were up 270 - 179 and holding on to a slim popular vote lead, we would never hear the end of it. The election will be called the greatest lock in history. A landslide! Trump doesn't even need to participate in the debates! The election is over!

If Trump was ahead, the forum would just switch places. Clinton hacks would be all "It's so narrow!", and Trump hacks would be all "You're being ridiculous! You should concede today! We're going to win like Reagan!" In 2014 we had people who were (near) 100% sure M. Udall was going to hold on until the polls closed, and people saying Pryor shouldn't be counted out, and even one user saying the Democrats were going to shock everyone and get a net gain in the Senate.