Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato) (user search)
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  Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Big 3 Race Rating Changes (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato)  (Read 5709 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,020
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« on: September 04, 2016, 04:10:09 PM »

MN-2 has been potentially competitive for a long time now, it's just that Kline was an entrenched incumbent for the last decade which kept it out of sight for elections.    It's gradually evolving into a more urban-centric district which most definitely benefits Dems.

Also it really seems like Rothenberg is a bit too generous to the GOP sometimes.

Part of it is that Rothenberg considers every race not in his "safe" category to be competitive right now, while Cook/Sabato uses their "likely" category for places that are not competitive now, but could fall in a big wave - Rothenberg just keeps those races at Safe.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,020
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2016, 06:41:39 PM »

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,020
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2016, 09:22:46 PM »

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.
Paulsen is closer to the center, but the state does have a Democratic lean. Kurt Bills (Klobuchar's 2012 opponent) only won 2 or 3 counties in the Southwest corner. He seemed like a completely incompetent candidate who wasn't even serious from what I've heard (Wulfric, was that true?), not to mention that it was one of the first races national Republican groups triaged.

Yeah, Kurt Bills wasn't a serious candidate. The state and national GOP just accepted that Klobuchar was going to win reelection and didn't even try.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,020
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2016, 01:32:46 PM »

I could see him beating Klobuchar. Franken's far too charismatic to lose a race.

As an actual resident of MN, I can tell you that Klobuchar is far more popular. Heck, Bachmann's District voted for her in '12.

Has Klobuchar ever faced an actual opponent?

Regardless of your ideology, I'm sure most people can agree Franken is a better person than Klobuchar and definitely more charismatic.

Yes, her 2006 opponent was an incumbent congressman.

Anecdotal Evidence is ancedotal, but my grandfather, who is conservative on everything except Medicare/SS, likes Klobuchar but despises Franken.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,020
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 12:16:34 AM »

Sabato shifts FL-SEN from Likely R to Lean R. Funny, the DSCC told me that the Rubioslide was infinitely growing.
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