I think Republicans pick up WV and VT, while Democrats pick up NC. So 32. But the Republicans have a good shot at KY, MO, and MT, and an outside chance at NH (assuming Hassan runs again, otherwise it's probably Tilt R to start), WA and OR. The only democratic seat that won't flip no matter what is DE.
Also, Republicans should hold IN, LA, and ND, but it's not a guarantee at this point. The only republican seats that are completely safe are MS and UT.
Lumping in IN with LA and ND is pretty far-fetched. Do you seriously think the D's stand any chance in ND and LA?
I remain skeptical about IN - Pence has very successfully kept his name out of the news for months, and voters will likely forget/stop caring about the whole RFRA thing by this time next year. Gregg's going to have to win on some other issue. That being said, LA and ND are much less likely to flip, which is why I listed IN before them up there. With ND, Darlymple's retirement has blown things wide open, and someone like Earl Pomeroy or Joel Heitkamp might actually be able to win in the right political climate. With LA, I see Vitter as significantly damaged. Edwards will almost certainly lose a runoff against Dardenne or Angelle, but against Vitter I'm less sure of the outcome.
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