LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ No one really knows whether 2015 Governor was a fluke because of Vitter or whether it means the state is purple (or purple-atlas blue) aside from the presidential race. The senate race will give us the answer.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ No one really knows whether 2015 Governor was a fluke because of Vitter or whether it means the state is purple (or purple-atlas blue) aside from the presidential race. The senate race will give us the answer.

Uh, yes we do? It was obviously a fluke. That's like saying we don't know if Massachusetts is still a blue state or not because they elected Baker.

Massachusetts electing a republican governor is nothing new. The only reason Deval Patrick got in is because Romney left office very unpopular. That state just LOVES republican governors.

With Louisiana, everyone was declaring the state to be "Finally, completely republican!" after a decent challenger against Vitter in 2010 went nowhere, Jindal won in an historic landslide in 2011, and Landrieu finally went down in 2014, and by a lot. But then Edwards emerges out of nowhere, and wins by the same margin Landrieu lost. Even with all of Vitter's baggage, Edwards was clearly a good candidate in his own right and did very good divorcing himself from the national party. When I try to think about how Edwards vs. Angelle would have gone, I'm honestly not confident giving an answer. Maybe 2010-2014 was just a string of good races for the state R party that actually don't mean much in the long run.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ No one really knows whether 2015 Governor was a fluke because of Vitter or whether it means the state is purple (or purple-atlas blue) aside from the presidential race. The senate race will give us the answer.

Uh, yes we do? It was obviously a fluke. That's like saying we don't know if Massachusetts is still a blue state or not because they elected Baker.

Massachusetts electing a republican governor is nothing new. The only reason Deval Patrick got in is because Romney left office very unpopular. That state just LOVES republican governors.

With Louisiana, everyone was declaring the state to be "Finally, completely republican!" after a decent challenger against Vitter in 2010 went nowhere, Jindal won in an historic landslide in 2011, and Landrieu finally went down in 2014, and by a lot. But then Edwards emerges out of nowhere, and wins by the same margin Landrieu lost. Even with all of Vitter's baggage, Edwards was clearly a good candidate in his own right and did very good divorcing himself from the national party. When I try to think about how Edwards vs. Angelle would have gone, I'm honestly not confident giving an answer. Maybe 2010-2014 was just a string of good races for the state R party that actually don't mean much in the long run.

How would Edwards v. Dardenne go in your opinion?

I'm pretty sure that would be a Dardenne landslide. Edwards wouldn't have had much of an argument against the guy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Well, I wasn't expecting to see a Landrieu file. Interesting.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^That's a rather large field on both sides. Is there a push to narrow the field on either side, if that's even possible at this point?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, is Derrick Edwards related to Edwin or John Bel?

Edit: The NRSC is #NEVERDUKE: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/david-duke-senate-kkk-226028

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll see how things shake out but assuming Cao isn't a frontrunner, my rather powerless endorsement for the jungle probably goes to Fayard.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Officially endorsing Caroline Fayard.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are the chances of Foster Campbell pulling a JBE? Probably 0 right?

Against Kennedy? 20-30%. Against any other Republican? 50% at least. Of course it won't happen if control of the Senate is at stake.

That's only true if the R isn't David Duke.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FWIW, I endorsed Cassidy in 2014 and originally Dardenne in 2015 (endorsed JBE in the runoff).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Miles is just sad that I don't support Campbell.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Probably >90% of politicians in Louisiana are pro-life, and no one cares what someone thought 25 years ago. Campbell, if you're somehow reading this, it was right to state that you're pro-life, of course, but it is now time to move on to some issue where there is actually disagreement between you and Kennedy.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Only a week left until the runoffs in LA-03, LA-04, and LA-SEN.


Kennedy has spent the runoff campaign tying himself to Trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bexcVZBh9Rg

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Voting Tea-Leaves: Not good for Campbell.

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/louisiana-senate-runoff-democrats-232142

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today is the day of the Louisiana runoff!

Live Results will be covered on this thread after the polls close at 9 PM EST. These are the races to be covered:

U. S. Senator

Foster Campbell (DEM)   
John Kennedy (REP)   

U. S. Representative -- 3rd Congressional District

Scott A. Angelle (REP)
Clay Higgins (REP)

U. S. Representative -- 4th Congressional District

"Mike" Johnson (REP)   
Marshall Jones (DEM)


Sources for results may include, but are not limited to:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/#/2016-12-10/resultsRace/Congressional
http://www.nola.com/elections/
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/LA_Page_1210.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Go Campbell!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CNN may have county results for the house races here: http://www.cnn.com/election/results/house

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Johnson up 78-22 in the 4th district.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the 4th district for Johnson! He has 79% with half the early vote in!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the Senate race for Kennedy! Up 2-1 with half the early vote and a little ED in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Higgins has a 12% lead. All early vote so far.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the 3rd district for Higgins! Up 59-41 with 22% in.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Campbell has 85% of the Orleans vote with only a little of Orleans in. That should get him to 40%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How the hell is Foster up 20 POINTS in caddo?

It's within 100 votes with 99% in there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And Kennedy won Caddo! WOW!!!!!