Quinn; if I were writing a timeline on the 2014 elections Rauner wins the governorship at the top of the 8 o'clock hour. Its a 12 point lead in the polls right now. Something Illinois has not seen in a good decade or so.
Unless Rauner wins by like 15+, he won't get an immediate call because IL is a state where the most democratic votes (i.e. chicago) come in first. Even if Rauner wins by like 10 or 11, Quinn will still be in the lead for the first quarter to third of the vote - Kirk didn't get ahead of Giannoulias until about 80% in in 2010.