India 2014

[covermyeyes]

Zero seats for AIUDF in Assam? I would have thought that Dhubri was a sure bet for them.

I would be interested in knowing which seats you see the BJP winning in WB and Assam?

Before the elections, I was given to understand that INC was very strong in Upper Assam, but reports since then have been contradictory. Most see BJP winning anywhere between 3-5. However, its not quite clear if these are coming from Lower Assam (where the BJP is fighting to retain 4 seats) or from Upper Assam.

[covermyeyes]

You make a very good point about Dhubri and AUDF.  I could be wrong about this but I figured that the AUDF vote base would go to INC to stop BJP although there is no need to do that in Dhubri. I might have to re-think that one.  As for where the BJP will make their seats, I think BJP gained in 2009 from INC AUDF split in Lower Assam.  This time the AUDF vote will go INC in lower Assam to stop BJP.  It will be in Upper Assam that the BJP will absorb the AGP vote share to gain a few seats.  The high Assam turnout is a sign of unprecedented polarization which really means bad news for AUDF and AGP.

As for WB, I figure BJP might get lucky and win a seat in South WB, where the INC is weak and Left Front is also losing vote share.  Of course the Muslim vote will go TMC but BJP is gaining here and might manage to grab one of these seats.

Dhubri seat is being contested by Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, and the most influential Muslim leader in Assam. Muslim consolidation in favour of INC might hurt AIUDF in rest of Assam, but in Dhubri I can't see Ajmal losing.

Also, what do you make of pre-election data for Assam? This is from CNN-IBN in April.

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I simply can't understand how a massive lead for INC in Upper Assam has become a BJP clean sweep. Well, at least this is what I am gathering from recent reports. Another thing is that INC leads BJP strongly in rural areas. Upper Assam is mostly rural. If anything, the BJP should be winning its seats in areas like Guwahati.

As for Bengal, I will be surprised if BJP wins even a single seat. But, then again, there is a first time for everything. If 2014 is a wave election, I suppose the BJP might get lucky and win a seat or two.

[covermyeyes]

Dhubri seat is being contested by Badruddin Ajmal, the leader of the AIUDF, and the most influential Muslim leader in Assam. Muslim consolidation in favour of INC might hurt AIUDF in rest of Assam, but in Dhubri I can't see Ajmal losing.

Also, what do you make of pre-election data for Assam? This is from CNN-IBN in April.

I simply can't understand how a massive lead for INC in Upper Assam has become a BJP clean sweep. Well, at least this is what I am gathering from recent reports. Another thing is that INC leads BJP strongly in rural areas. Upper Assam is mostly rural. If anything, the BJP should be winning its seats in areas like Guwahati.

As for Bengal, I will be surprised if BJP wins even a single seat. But, then again, there is a first time for everything. If 2014 is a wave election, I suppose the BJP might get lucky and win a seat or two.

Speaking of polls it is also interesting that NDTV last pre-election poll had INC at 9 and BJP at 5 in Assam. It seems NDTV also made the the assumption I did about Dhubri although now you are point this out I am re-thinking this one.  On top of this this prediction makes no sense as in Kokrajhar neither INC nor BJP are running (although BJP is supporting an independent and INC is support BPF)  So the INC+BJP seat count cannot be 14.  Unless NDTV counts the BJP supported independent as BJP feel that he will win ? I think BPF will win Kokrajhar.

I also think BPF will win in Kokrajhar. However, the incumbent four time MP and former BPF leader is running as an independent, so things might get tricky.

As for the opinion polls, BPF is allied with INC in Assam. The AIUDF, likewise, is part of the UPA government at the centre. So, I think the 9 seats for INC actually translates into 7 + 1 + 1.  While the AIUDF is happy to support INC at the national level, they contest elections separately, something that I think NDTV has failed to take into account. Media in Delhi is often shoddy when it comes to reporting Assam and the NE.

7 seats for INC sounds about right if there really is a BJP wave and corresponding AGP decline at same time. In 1999, there was a pro NDA wave in Assam, but INC ended up with 10 seats because votes were split in three tiered contests. This time, the overall tally will depend on the results of Upper Assam. I believe INC can wrest most, if not all BJP seats in Lower Assam. If they retain the 4 seats of upper Assam, then INC should end up with 10-12 seats, keeping in line with pre-election polls.

[covermyeyes]

Bihar/Times Now:

BJP: 28

RDJ:  0
INC:  2
JDU: 10

Absolute comedy.

I think they might have gotten the JDU and RJD figures reserved somehow.

[covermyeyes]

Assam: BJP 8 (out of 14)

So far exit polling indicates them beating Jaichind's prediction.

CSDS vote shares in Assam are as follows

INC:  40 %
BJP:  22 %
AGP: 13 %

Past results

1998

INC:10    BJP: 1    AGP: 0
 39 %     24.5 %    12.7 %

1999:

INC:10    BJP:2    AGP: 0
 38 %     29.8 %    11.9 %

2004

INC: 9      BJP:2      AGP:2
 35.1 %    22.9 %    20 %

2009

INC: 7      BJP: 4    AIUF: 1    AGP:1
34.9  %    16.2 %   16.1 %  14.6 %

[covermyeyes]

If the exit polls are right, a strong performance by the BJP.

Thankfully they are never right. It seems certain BJP led NDA will form a government. But, I am still hoping for a much stronger performance by the UPA and Third Front, so we won't be condemned to a "strong" Modi government for 5 years.

[covermyeyes]

BJP has the momentum in Assam.

As per NDTV:

BJP   - 6 seats (16 to 35 %)
INC + BPF - 6 seats (40 to 35 %)
AIUDF  - 2 seats (16 %)
AGP + Others - 0 (28 to 14 %)

CNN-IBN:

INC + BPF - 40 %
BJP      - 22 %
AGP     - 13 %
AIUDF  - 11 %
Others - 14 %

So, the pollsters disagree sharply over the result, but its clear that BJP is performing better than expected. Still, there are problems I would like to point out. According to NDTV, AIUDF has not just retained its vote share, but also snatched a seat from INC in lower Assam. This seat is probably either Barpeta or Karimganj. On the other hand, CNN-IBN projects that AIUDF has suffered a 5 % swing, probably to the the INC. If NDTV projection turns out to be true, then INC has lost part of its vote share to the BJP, and failed to make up for it since the expected swing from AIUDF did not materialize. However, if the CNN-IBN projections are correct, then the INC has gained from the decline of the AIUDF. But, this has been offset by the loss of part of its vote share to the BJP.

This is problematic. NDTV figures imply that INC failed to pick up the Muslim vote in lower Assam from AIUDF, meaning that BJP might have retained most, if not all of its present four seats in the area. This is because of a multipolar three cornered fight in which the BJP has the advantage as the AGP seems to have been annihilated. Conversely, if INC has lost part of its voteshare to BJP, and if AGP has been swallowed by the BJP, then the BJP should win most seats in upper Assam. This is where the AGP gets most of its votes. In other words, the projections imply a BJP sweep. However, NDTV has put BJP and INC + in a neck and neck fight. On the other hand, the CNN-IBN projections means that INC has snatched seats from BJP in lower Assam, and in turn, lost seats in upper Assam. This is because while the AIUDF vote has conceivably swung in its favour, the BJP has benefited from a 6 % swing of its own. This is most likely from both INC and AGP in upper Assam. In other words, more or less the reverse of 2009, INC deriving most of its seats from lower Assam and BJP from upper Assam.

[covermyeyes]

NDTV exit poll has NDA 279 UPA 103.  NDTV seems pretty consistent with CNN-IBM at 276, Cicero 272, C-Voter 289 and Nielson 281.  Times Now at 249 and Today's Chanakya at 340 seems to be the outliers.  I am a bit skeptical of NDTV's results for TN where they have AIADMK at 48%, DMK+ at 25%, DMDK-BJP+ at 14% and INC at 3%.  The gap between AIADMK and DMK+ seems to large to me.  The BJP+ vote share of 40% in UP also seems high but is not too out of line with other exit polls.   

Any final predictions for Assam? I would be interested in knowing which 5 seats (NDTV) you see INC winning? Kaliabor is a lock, and possibly Diphu, but the rest are up in the air. Also, if CNN-IBN projections are correct, how many do you see INC winning in light of NDTV projections? And where? I saw that you took the CNN-IBN vote share to mean 10 seats for INC in the last page. 

Lastly, who would you favour - NDTV or CNN-IBN? 35 % for BJP vs 22 % is a drastic variation. I am still holding out hope that Assam, like Kerala, avoids any part in electing a fascist as prime minister.