What will the margin be in MD-SEN?

[Xing]

Hogan is DOA. Yes, he will overperform by a lot, but the type of overperformance he would need is pretty much unheard of for a Senate race in this day and age. Even if Maryland swings a bit to the right nationally (not at all a given, since it's pretty consistently swung leftward), he would still need at least a 30-point overperformance. The only time that has happened recently (not including uncontested Senate races or D vs. D races) was WV-SEN 2012. Even a Collins type overperformance would still be a double digit loss for Hogan. It's also worth mentioning that he was not re-elected by the type of margins Baker and Scott got. He won by 12% against a bad opponent. So it's not like his popularity even translated into that big of a win as an incumbent in a gubernatorial race. In a federal race, where he'll very quickly be painted as a reliable Republican vote, there's no way he's winning or coming close. Maryland is also much more Democratic than Montana or Tennessee are Republican.

Democrats have plenty of problems going into the elections this year, but MD-SEN ain't one. Safe D, the Democrat wins by 13-15%, maybe more.