This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.
"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015
Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.
Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.
Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!
The environment can still impact gubernatorial races, even if it’s not as clear cut as Senate races. And while it might be “easy” in theory to paint Beshear (who’s a far better candidate than Conway) that way, his popularity is still a clear obstacle for Cameron to overcome. Obviously a decent number of Trump voters in Kentucky don’t see Beshear the same way they see national Democrats. And while Reeves is not a great candidate, I wouldn’t say he’s Vitter levels of bad, at least not yet.
