PA-SEN (Beacon Research): Fetterman +11 (LV) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 10, 2024, 03:50:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2022 Senate & House Election Polls
  PA-SEN (Beacon Research): Fetterman +11 (LV) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA-SEN (Beacon Research): Fetterman +11 (LV)  (Read 1585 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,325
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: July 30, 2022, 12:12:47 AM »
Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,325
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2022, 07:30:15 AM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 30, 2022, 01:16:41 AM
Quote from: Xing on July 30, 2022, 12:12:47 AM
Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,325
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2022, 06:12:06 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 30, 2022, 08:08:40 AM
Quote from: Xing on July 30, 2022, 07:30:15 AM
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 30, 2022, 01:16:41 AM
Quote from: Xing on July 30, 2022, 12:12:47 AM
Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

What's the maximum Fetterman win that you would consider believable?

I’m not sure, maybe a 3-4 point win or so?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 15 queries.