Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo
just imo
imo vermont (with Scott) flips first
or becomes #3 or 4 if knute runs against a weak neoliberal tbh
These are all reasonable opinions, but now let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’ve now identified the five most promising Senate targets for Republicans (NH/VT/MD/WA/OR) using elaborate, unassailable reasoning, but predicting more than 4 R flips would be hackish/delusional imo
True, our list should include at least 10 D flips if the Republican candidates are weak.
1. IA (duh)
2. WI (ONLY if Johnson runs, otherwise it’s Titanium R)
3. OH (with Ryan)
4. PA (with Fetterman, otherwise it’s Likely/Safe R)
5. MO
6. IN
7. KY
8. KS
9. AL
10. SC
(11/12 if Steil/Gallagher run and Fetterman isn’t the nominee are ND and OK)
