WA - PPP/NPI: Patty Murray (D) +16 over Tiffany Smiley (R)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2021/05/senator-patty-murray-has-a-strong-early-lead-in-2022-u-s-senate-race-npi-poll-finds.html

May 25-26
992 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%

Murray 53
Smiley 37
Not sure 10

[Woody]

Likely D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murray is so boring but this is Washington

[Xing]

#MurrayUnder54
#RememberHowCloseThisWasIn2010
#WAWillTrendRAnyDayNow

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo

just imo

Sen Maggie will beat Sununu once we get a Gubernatorial Nominee and hopefully it's Molly Kelly

[WD]

Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo

just imo

imo vermont (with Scott) flips first

[President Johnson]

Safe Democratic. Nothing to see here.

[Xing]

Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo

just imo

imo vermont (with Scott) flips first

or becomes #3 or 4 if knute runs against a weak neoliberal tbh

[MT Treasurer]

Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo

just imo

imo vermont (with Scott) flips first

or becomes #3 or 4 if knute runs against a weak neoliberal tbh

These are all reasonable opinions, but now let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’ve now identified the five most promising Senate targets for Republicans (NH/VT/MD/WA/OR) using elaborate, unassailable reasoning, but predicting more than 4 R flips would be hackish/delusional imo

[Xing]

Flip no. 2 for the GOP (after NH with Sununu) if Tiffany Smiley turns out to be a strong candidate who runs a stellar campaign, followed very closely by MD (if Hogan runs) imo

just imo

imo vermont (with Scott) flips first

or becomes #3 or 4 if knute runs against a weak neoliberal tbh

These are all reasonable opinions, but now let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’ve now identified the five most promising Senate targets for Republicans (NH/VT/MD/WA/OR) using elaborate, unassailable reasoning, but predicting more than 4 R flips would be hackish/delusional imo

True, our list should include at least 10 D flips if the Republican candidates are weak.

1. IA (duh)
2. WI (ONLY if Johnson runs, otherwise it’s Titanium R)
3. OH (with Ryan)
4. PA (with Fetterman, otherwise it’s Likely/Safe R)
5. MO
6. IN
7. KY
8. KS
9. AL
10. SC
(11/12 if Steil/Gallagher run and Fetterman isn’t the nominee are ND and OK)

[SevenEleven]

True, our list should include at least 10 D flips if the Republican candidates are weak.

1. IA (duh)
2. WI (ONLY if Johnson runs, otherwise it’s Titanium R)
3. OH (with Ryan)
4. PA (with Fetterman, otherwise it’s Likely/Safe R)
5. MO
6. IN
7. KY
8. KS
9. AL
10. SC
(11/12 if Steil/Gallagher run and Fetterman isn’t the nominee are ND and OK)

Solid list, the only thing I take issue with here is LA not being #2 if JBE runs (it’s #19 if he doesn’t). Democrats don’t really have a candidate of his caliber waiting in the wings in WI.

Control of the Senate probably comes down entirely to whether JBE runs or not tbh

Does this sort of rubbish actually cause you to chuckle? And if not, why are you posting this drivel?

[WD]

True, our list should include at least 10 D flips if the Republican candidates are weak.

1. IA (duh)
2. WI (ONLY if Johnson runs, otherwise it’s Titanium R)
3. OH (with Ryan)
4. PA (with Fetterman, otherwise it’s Likely/Safe R)
5. MO
6. IN
7. KY
8. KS
9. AL
10. SC
(11/12 if Steil/Gallagher run and Fetterman isn’t the nominee are ND and OK)

Solid list, the only thing I take issue with here is LA not being #2 if JBE runs (it’s #19 if he doesn’t). Democrats don’t really have a candidate of his caliber waiting in the wings in WI.

Control of the Senate probably comes down entirely to whether JBE runs or not tbh

John Kennedy spends his days furiously refreshing The Cook Political Report to see any developments on whether or not JBE may run. If he does, he has a pre-written retirement speech ready.

Let’s be real folks, with JBE LA is safer than IA. The real question would be if Republicans could keep La Salle within single digits.

[S019]

True, our list should include at least 10 D flips if the Republican candidates are weak.

1. IA (duh)
2. WI (ONLY if Johnson runs, otherwise it’s Titanium R)
3. OH (with Ryan)
4. PA (with Fetterman, otherwise it’s Likely/Safe R)
5. MO
6. IN
7. KY
8. KS
9. AL
10. SC
(11/12 if Steil/Gallagher run and Fetterman isn’t the nominee are ND and OK)

Solid list, the only thing I take issue with here is LA not being #2 if JBE runs (it’s #19 if he doesn’t). Democrats don’t really have a candidate of his caliber waiting in the wings in WI.

Control of the Senate probably comes down entirely to whether JBE runs or not tbh

Does this sort of rubbish actually cause you to chuckle? And if not, why are you posting this drivel?

It's meant to mock the incredibly stupid list that CNN put out yesterday as well as the idiots at Cook Political Report who prioritize "candidate quality" and "incumbency." It's very dumb, but then again, these were the same people who moved TN-SEN to Likely R once Alexander retired and simultaneously had NJ SEN and TN SEN as tossups on Election Day 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's not a bad list except MO, IN, KY are noncompetetive.

Anyone thinks that's Rs are gonna walk into the Majority and Leader Mccarthy and Mcconnell are at 15 Percent Approvals are kidding themselves and Rs are -9 on Generic ballot, our FLOOR is Rs holding a narrow Majority in H and we net WI and PA Sen and lose GA in a Runoff, for a 51/49 Senate and our CEILING is 241 DH and 56/44
OH, WI, PA, IA, FL and NC goes D Senate netting PR and DC Statehood WOULD give us 60/44 but the Election is 16 mnths from now and Eternity

The Rs have only tied the Generic ballot they were previously 5 pts down