Which Senate race are Republicans more likely to blow?

[Xing]

I get that North Carolina's "persistent Republican lean" is exaggerated, but since Arizona is also trending Democratic (at a slower rate than initially thought, but still), it makes sense to assume that, all things being equal, Arizona will vote left of North Carolina. While Yee would probably be a better candidate than McCrory or Trump, I'm not sure it will make enough of a difference to make NC-SEN more winnable than AZ-SEN for Democrats (though it could make that race more likely to flip than PA-SEN and WI-SEN.) It's also yet to be seen how good of a candidate Jackson or Beasley would be. Memes aside, Kelly isn't a bad candidate, so I'd still give him a better chance of winning, even if he's a slight underdog right now.

[Xing]

I get that North Carolina's "persistent Republican lean" is exaggerated, but since Arizona is also trending Democratic (at a slower rate than initially thought, but still), it makes sense to assume that, all things being equal, Arizona will vote left of North Carolina. While Yee would probably be a better candidate than McCrory or Trump, I'm not sure it will make enough of a difference to make NC-SEN more winnable than AZ-SEN for Democrats (though it could make that race more likely to flip than PA-SEN and WI-SEN.) It's also yet to be seen how good of a candidate Jackson or Beasley would be. Memes aside, Kelly isn't a bad candidate, so I'd still give him a better chance of winning, even if he's a slight underdog right now.

AZ's trend isn't that slow, it went from R+13 relative to the popular vote to R+4. That's still a solid 9% Democratic trend in 8 years.

Much more of that trend happened from 2012-2016, though, so the trend hasn’t been as fast more recently.