Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

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I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

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I’m not going to call Beshear done for yet, but he’s probably at least an underdog, at this point. Perhaps Lean R is where I’d put the race now. Funny how Democratic governors in red states either barely scrape by or even lose if they’re popular, while many Republican governors in blue states get re-elected in landslides even when the environment is good for Democrats. Wonder why that is…

Might have something to do with the fact that blue state Republicans actively distance themselves from the national party (to say nothing of the fact that they have to deal with heavily D legislatures, which essentially makes conservative governance in those states impossible even with Republican governors) and red state Democrats don’t/run as generic Democrats. But of course you people will believe in your nonsensical "asymmetric polarization benefits Republicans" talking point to feel morally superior — you’re not genuinely interested in debating this (otherwise you’d point out the disparity between red state Democratic vs. blue state Republican overperformances in the Senate and even House races) and it’s unfortunately impossible to change your mind.

Hogan and Sununu are absolutely fake moderates, but because they “act” moderate, they get swaths of crossover support, while Democrats like Edwards who absolutely distanced himself from national Democrats just squeaked by, and Kelly, who also did, is likely headed for defeat and not a particularly close one. I’ve provided many examples of this, zero of which have been addressed, but sure, I’m the one acting morally superior. At least I make some effort to hold Democrats to some kind of standard, rather than acting as though deal-breaking vices in one party are virtues or “playing the game wisely” for members of the other party. I’m not saying that Beshear necessarily “deserves” hoards of Republican votes, but then why do the many Republicans who win in swing/Democratic leaning areas but govern them as though they’re rural Oklahoma?

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There is now a PredictIt market on this race. The odds seem reasonable.

I would buy on Cameron. Even if he doesn't win, I'm guessing his odds improve close to Election Day.

Yeah, I’d say that 60/40 is probably closer to where I’d put this, and I’m sure there will at least be moments in which the market will move toward 50/50, even if Beshear ultimately wins.

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I would still maintain that the “so goes KY-GOV so goes the presidency” will be true until it isn’t, and it’s more of a coincidence than a pattern. Beshear’s main obstacle (the partisan lean of his state) is quite different in nature from Biden’s (his popularity.) All four combinations of results (Beshear/Biden, Beshear/Trump, Cameron/Biden, Cameron/Trump) have at least a chance of happening.

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Its interesting how one Emerson poll has changed the vibes of this race, ar least on the forum.

Same thing happened to the forum after one tweet with a news clip of a woman in Mississippi saying she's flipping to Presley. This site is too reactionary.

Overreacting is one of our core competencies.

Yep. I do think people were a bit too bullish on Beshear prior to the past couple of weeks, but some might be overcorrecting now, which is very common on here.

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D4P is a junk pollster. I’d say toss the whole poll, even if Beshear +2 is overall a very plausible result.

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A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

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A certain poster who thought Cameron would win by 5 is suspiciously missing. I wonder why...

LOL clowned as badly as you were four years ago, right?

At least I owned it at the time and was much closer this time.

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I think that the takeaway is that popular governors tend to win re-election, and while you can point to some (dated) examples of them losing, that’s pretty clearly the exception to the rule.

Also, kind of wild that Beshear won Fayette by more than Jefferson, margin-wise. How Democratic is Lexington going to get?