Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

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I hadn't thought to check on this thread, since I assumed it would be a steaming mess of hot takes about Nina Turner, but... wow, people really thought she had no chance? You may not like Turner, but she's not comparable to someone like Cenk Uygur, and while money isn't everything, her name recognition will definitely help her.

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Representative Turner.

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We’re still going to be reliving the 2016 primary in 2040, aren’t we?

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This race sure is bringing out the best in us, isn’t it? August can’t come soon enough.

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Ah, nothing like “Hillary Clinton” beating “Bernie Sanders” in “Clinton vs. Sanders” round 5,379 to bring out the “best” in people blaming the “other side” for being too toxic.

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Why are people acting like Brown is moderate? She supports Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.

Some want to air their grievances against the “corporate neoliberal Dem establishment”, and others want to dunk on progressives.

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Not the best Tweet from Sanders, but I’m also of the line of thinking that both these things can be true:

-There are many things to dislike about Turner and criticize her for

-Some people are glad Brown won for the wrong reasons

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So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

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So are there any more votes left to count, or is 4.2% the final margin? If so, definitely a decent outcome for Democrats, though the higher turnout for Republicans in Wisconsin shouldn’t be discounted as a data point, and I don’t see why NC would be a better pick-up opportunity than WI. I’d say that if the midterms were held today, there’s a good chance it would look more like a neutral year than a red wave, but Democrats shouldn’t get cocky (in the same way Republicans seemed to after 2021), since there are still three months to go, and things could start to look better again for Republicans. Not going to shift my expectations much just yet, though if things continue to look this way in October, I might.

I get people don't want to give a "W" to the Democrats, but objectively, an R+4 result last night is a terrific result for Democrats. They nearly duplicated their 2020 performance which was a D+3 year. Democrats anywhere close to a D+3 year is pretty stunning during a Biden midterm where Rs have been huffing and puffing about a red wave.

Not just that, but turnout was higher in the bluer / suburban areas which continues to show that Democrats are not only engaged, but keeping up with (and even expanding) their college+ white base, which again, Rs on here told me that the GOP would win some back again.

Also not sure why Wisconsin turnout keeps getting brought up when Republicans had a very contentious GOV primary on their side while Democrats really had no reason to come out once Barnes was consolidated for the nominee.

If the election were next week, I’d agree that the Democrats would be headed for a better night than expected, but since there are three months left, it’s important to be cautious.

As for Wisconsin, the competitiveness of the gubernatorial primary partially explains the differential in turnout, but it was still pretty large, and we didn’t see the same gap in Minnesota.

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This looks really close. We might not know for sure tonight who wins.

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We definitely shouldn’t be making any definite calls about November yet, but this is a pretty good result for Democrats, and Republicans shouldn’t be so sure that the environment will shift significantly in their direction. It could, but that’s not a given.

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I realize that the spotlight is on Alaska, but were there any more updates to the totals in the NY races?

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I realize that the spotlight is on Alaska, but were there any more updates to the totals in the NY races?

Do you not read the prior posts in this thread? lol I just posted about this a few above. (not trying to be a d*ck, just purely asking)

It looks like the counties waited until the 8/30 cut off to finalize their additional absentee reports so by the end of this week, I think all counties should be doing canvassing. Possible we get a few updates today, but looks likely by the end of the week

Sorry, it was small and sandwiched between other posts, so I missed it. My bad.

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Wow. I definitely wouldn’t have seen this coming.

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Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

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Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

The economy has just been getting better lately...

There really is no reason to believe these terrible MAGA candidates -- down in the polls, losing actual races, Democrats actaully pulling off upsets in them and/or heavily outperforming their baseline ever since Dobbs -- will have "the economy" sweep in to magically save them. Especially when their economic agenda is so unpopular too!

As I said before, the GOP f--ked around, now they're about to find out. This race could be a 1948 redux but a midterm, where the GOP again gets way too cocky and goes way overboard, alienating the majority of the country as a result, leading to a win for the Democrats that defies pundit expectations.

Better, yes, but gas prices are still not exactly low. And if there’s a news cycle in which a recession is predicted to be “imminent”, things could turn on a dime. Things look a lot better for Democrats than they did two months ago, but the last thing they should be doing is getting cocky.

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Of course this result alone doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t be better for Republicans in November, though it’s hard to argue that this isn’t a very strong result for Democrats, and when you have multiple data points, they begin to form a pattern. Republicans have another two months, and the economy could emerge again as a key issue that would pull many lackluster Republican candidates across the finish line. The point now is that the data is pointing to this being less certain than it seemed in May or June.

The economy has just been getting better lately...

There really is no reason to believe these terrible MAGA candidates -- down in the polls, losing actual races, Democrats actaully pulling off upsets in them and/or heavily outperforming their baseline ever since Dobbs -- will have "the economy" sweep in to magically save them. Especially when their economic agenda is so unpopular too!

As I said before, the GOP f--ked around, now they're about to find out. This race could be a 1948 redux but a midterm, where the GOP again gets way too cocky and goes way overboard, alienating the majority of the country as a result, leading to a win for the Democrats that defies pundit expectations.

Better, yes, but gas prices are still not exactly low. And if there’s a news cycle in which a recession is predicted to be “imminent”, things could turn on a dime. Things look a lot better for Democrats than they did two months ago, but the last thing they should be doing is getting cocky.

All of your predictions rely on things like 'when [blank] gets their ads in the air', not even stopping to think that these Republican candidates have no money.

Money isn’t everything, though, and my only point is that a badly timed negative news cycle can change a lot. Having lived through 2014, 2016, and 2020 has made me skeptical of the Democrats’ ability to overperform the fundamentals in more than a few select races.