NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

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imo nh votes more r than mo if sununu runs but more d than wa if he doesnt.

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Standing by my assertion that this is more likely to flip than NV. Uniform swing never happens.

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Sununu won’t make an official decision before the legislative session ends in late June, but several party 'insiders' think he’s likely to run:

https://insidesources.com/hes-running-gop-insiders-see-nhs-sununu-edging-toward-senate-bid/

YEA BOY HERE WE GO!!! COOKIE MAN FOR SENATE!!!

cookie man?

I think he’s talking about Cookie Roberts.

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Maggie Hassan is no doubt one of the happiest people in Washington right now. While this doesn’t make her safe by any means, it might mean she’s a bit more likely to win than Masto/Warnock, though I’d still say Toss-Up, maybe Tilt D at best.

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It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

The environment might be strong enough for Republicans that it doesn't matter, not to mention voters haven't exactly punished Republicans for their actions or views as of late, but I'm glad I'm not the only one recognizing that Laxalt and Walker aren't god-tier candidates.

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If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

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If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

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If I were to be told that Democrats would end up with just 50 seats after the midterms and could choose which seats they were to win, I’d happily trade Hassan and Masto for Barnes and Fetterman.

Barnes is not winning on a night when Hassan is losing, and more likely than not Republicans will end up with 54 seats in the Senate if they manage to win in NH.

I know, I was saying that if I could specifically choose which way each race would go to get to a 50/50 Senate, that’s what I would choose, even if in reality Hassan would be easily winning if Barnes were to win (and Masto would almost certainly win as well.)

I see. There’s still a surprising number of people who seem convinced that Democrats will win easily in November because of Roe/Trump/inflation policy but who also think that Morse winning the Republican nomination in NH instead of Bolduc will somehow make a difference in that it will turn this into a competitive race. It doesn’t make sense — if you think there’ll be a Democratic sweep in November, the Republican candidate in NH won’t matter at all.

I’d agree that if Democrats lose NH, there’s absolutely no way they’re holding the Senate, though I do think Morse gives Republicans a bit more hope here than Bolduc would, and it’s possible that this could become seat 53 instead of 54 for the Republicans.