CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

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It looks like Peters will pull it out, so it'll be somewhere between 52R-48D and 50-50, depending on the Georgia run-offs, unless there are way more ballots left in NC than we think.

I am geniunely stunned that "oMfG sOcIaLiSm" worked so well with Cubans (and some other Latino groups.) I don't think we know yet how permanent (if at all) this change is, and while I won't shed any tears for Shalala, clearly Democrats have some work to do here.

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Suozzi going down in NY-03?  or is there still a lot of VBM left to count in New York?

Yes. Just looking at the totals in Nassau compared to 2016, there's a lot of vote left, so I wouldn't expect that to hold, though Suozzi could definitely be vulnerable in 2022.

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They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be close, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

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They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

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They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

They haven't been the best messengers, that's for sure (especially Omar and Tlaib.) I think that, at the very least, they do pick up on a lot of the frustration part I talked about, but Democrats and progressives need to find a better way to communicate this. We hear all the time about how people in rural areas are struggling, and while it's true that some Democratic candidates don't pay enough attention to it, plenty of people in cities are struggling. The "ivory tower" image people like to bring up only describes a small number of people in urban areas. For many people, their problems are very real, and just moving somewhere less expensive is nowhere near as easy as it sounds.

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who cares about downballot?

Welcome to Atlas! If we had a more "boring" Republican as President, I think some Democrats here would rather see said Republican win and the Democrats take the Senate than the result we got.

It does show how unrepresentative Atlas is on both sides, since most rank-and-file Democrats probably don't care much about the Senate, and are just happy and relieved that Trump is losing, while most Trump supporters are probably quite upset right now, and also don't care much about keeping the Senate.

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They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

They haven't been the best messengers, that's for sure (especially Omar and Tlaib.) I think that, at the very least, they do pick up on a lot of the frustration part I talked about, but Democrats and progressives need to find a better way to communicate this. We hear all the time about how people in rural areas are struggling, and while it's true that some Democratic candidates don't pay enough attention to it, plenty of people in cities are struggling. The "ivory tower" image people like to bring up only describes a small number of people in urban areas. For many people, their problems are very real, and just moving somewhere less expensive is nowhere near as easy as it sounds.

But is that frustrated voting block really relevant? We've seen that surged city turn out doesn't save them in places. What messengers could bring it do you think? Correct me if I say anything wrong btw, I'm on 6 hours of sleep since Monday.

I meant that these frustrated voters sometimes buy into messaging that doesn't help their cause, because they're fed up. Democrats need better messaging to reach more people outside of their base or their most reliable base to have more success politically.

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It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

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Al Gross conceded.

Sleep tight, sweet prince.

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Looks like CA-25, NJ-07, and NY-22 are the only ones that are really up in the air, at this point.

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I could see a Guinta/Shea-Porter situation happen with Katko/Brindisi, depending on what the combined district looked like.

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The House was only a success for Democrats in that they kept it. They underperformed across the board, with only a few Democrats like Brindisi overperforming expectations a bit.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327708710752428033

As someone who lived abroad, I can attest that Americans overseas tend to be overwhelmingly liberal.

Overall, I definitely agree, though it depends to a certain extent what part of the world they're living in.

Either way, NJ-07 looks like it could be decided by less than 100 votes.

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Kean gains a bit from Morris, but not quite what he needs.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328443384550318080

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So, looks like NJ-07 is over

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-defeats-kean-in-close-race/

I will say, Kean put up a good fight and did very well.

Damn it, poor Kean, always a bridge too far.

Yeah, it's disappointing. This is my home district and I was really rooting for him. But Mike's looking pretty good!

I’ll give you credit for calling that it would be a close race.

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Honestly, I’d rather Brindisi win than Smith. Smith is a terrible candidate, and I could definitely see her losing in 2022. Plus, Republicans could do worse than Garcia (e.g. Tenney.) While Brindisi would have a hard time winning whatever seat he ends up in next cycle, he’d at least give the Democrats a bit of hope of holding an Upstate NY seat. I also might have some disagreements with Brindisi, but he seems like a good person who is genuine in his positions.

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https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027

L M A O

What a Nice Reasonable Moderate

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Is this going to take as long as MN-SEN 2008?

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https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1329485720843669504

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuABhumm6fY

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Hopefully that's it, because any other dump probably puts Brindisi over the top

It's not, several counties have reported at least another few hundred left, and it's unclear what's left in Oneida.

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Wasserman is clueless about ny22

There are still potentially over 2k votes left

It’s over for tenney

Where do you see that?

If that's true, that's the ballgame.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1329455538388799492

He's claiming that there are still ballots to count in Herkimer, Oswego, a small handful left in Broome (and it's unclear whether the challenged ballots have been counted or not), and an unspecified amount left in Oneida. Unless he's wrong, or these ballots are very different from the late ballots we've seen, Brindisi probably ekes this out.

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Roll you would like Richard Hanna the guy before Tenney.

She challenged him in 2014 and lost, but he retired in 2016 and died this year.

Yeah, he was pretty great. Basically an old-style moderate Northeast Republican. We could use more of them. That's why I was rooting so hard for people like Tom Kean, Brian Fitzpatrick and of course Phil.

I imagine you would've liked Gibson (the former representative from NY-19, before Faso) as well.

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If people had told me that Rouda, Cisneros, Shalala, and DMP would lose, but Brindisi, Delgado, (Andy) Kim, and Golden would win, I'd probably have asked them why these Congresspeople were sent in a time machine back to 2012...

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Also when can we expect updates on CA-21, CA-25 and the IA-02 recount?

No idea on CA-21 or IA-02, but I believe LA updates on Fridays, so hopefully (?) we'll get more tomorrow.

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Christy Smith will be joining Amy McGrath, Robby Mook, and Cal Cunningham in the gulag.

Don't forget Shalala!