Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,318
Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91
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« on: June 13, 2020, 07:36:08 PM » |
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I’ll want to see their presidential numbers to see how her numbers compare to Trump’s, but even given the D bias in IA polls, it’s hard not to see this poll (which tends to be more accurate) as terrible for Ernst. Obviously her numbers could improve between now and November, but I never bought her being a great candidate or “the next Grassley.” She basically got very lucky in 2014 to run against a terrible opponent in a great year for her party in a state that’s trending Republican. If I had to guess, I think the R trend in IA saves her and she wins narrowly, but a blue wave realistically could knock her out, especially if she’s underperforming Trump. Back from Likely R to Lean R for now.
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