Predict Bevin's margin of victory

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How much will soon-to-be re-elected Governor Bevin win by? I'm guessing about 10%, which is pathetic for a Republican in Kentucky, but about as well as Democrats can hope to do these days. I know many people here want to believe the most recent poll, but Governor Conway and Senator Grimes can attest to how accurate Kentucky polling is, especially early polling. And to those who say that surely Kentucky polls will be right this time, people said the same thing about Nevada, and how well did that work out for Senator Heck, Still-Senator UTDH and Governor Laxalt?

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The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

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In some cases, states that are strongly Democratic/Republican at the federal level are willing to elect Governors of the opposite party. Not every state, though, since Kansas was the only solidly Republican state to elect a Democratic Governor, and several states that were supposed to be ultra-close ended up being.... anti-climactic, to say the least (Idaho, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, etc.) Kentucky nearly kicked out every statewide Democrat four years ago, and one of the Democrats who wasn't kicked out read the political winds and decided not to run.

I'll happily feast on crow if I'm wrong (I'd love to see Bevin lose), but I feel pretty confident saying that this will be OK-GOV and TN-SEN all over again. Best case scenario for Beshear would be more of an OR-GOV margin, if he runs a strong campaign.

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Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

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Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

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Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

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Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

Honestly? I think he will lose Elliott and a few other counties that Jim Gray carried in 2016. Having <30% approval in a governor's race where there are many registered DINOs is probably enough for these people to come back temporarily for someone like Edelen or Beshear. To be clear though, I think Democrats will continue to lose it by large margins in congressional and presidential races.

Lol yeah, I see no realistic scenario where Bevin loses to a Democrat but I can see him losing Elliott even if it won’t be by much. Manchin was able to eke our a narrow win in its ideological twin McDowell County one last time last year, so I think there’s still time for local Dems to notch a couple more wins before it’s completely gone

True, but Manchin overperformed Clinton by 45% in WV. I don't see the Democratic candidate overperforming Clinton by more than 25% in KY. I could see Elliott county being a narrow win for Bevin, but I don't see it going Democratic.