IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

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She's definitely favored, but I don't think it would take that massive of a Democratic wave for her to lose to a good candidate (i.e. not Vilsack.)

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Likely r but closer to lean than safe.
Nominate a young populist dem who can like jd scholten but with hair and its lean but nominate an old lobbyist like vilsack and it's safe

Yes, voters care so deeply about Male Pattern Baldness, which is why Rick Scott lost three statewide elections and Trump lost to Clinton in a landslide. If only Scholten had Tester's haircut, he would've actually beaten King despite it being a Trump +27 district.

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So he's a solid "maybe", then. I agree that if he runs and wins the primary, this race is probably over for Democrats, but Ernst is hilariously overrated on this forum. She'll of course win if Republicans have a good year, but the idea that she's not even vulnerable in a good year for Democrats is absurd.

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https://twitter.com/idaveprice/status/1087810343936684033?s=21
Scholten announcing future plans soon!

Only UTJD can  beat UTJE.

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Calling Ernst favored is fair, but she's not safe, especially if Democrats actually run a decent candidate for Iowa (which they haven't done in most recent races.)

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Vilsack is not running: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/22/election-20202-tom-vilsack-not-run-u-s-senate-joni-ernst-democrat-republican/2952285002/

Good, Democrats can do better.

Ernst is a moderate in a swing state and put on the Capito sleeve. The only candidate that can win IA in a GE against Trump, is Bernie Sanders

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Even if Iowa is a longshot, it's far from the most expensive state to compete in, so it doesn't make sense for Democrats to give up, at least not this early in the game. I don't think the DSCC is triaging this race, they're just not always the best at picking great candidates to endorse.

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https://twitter.com/LissandraVilla/status/1143238569156329472

Ugh, there's a reason primaries exist. This aversion Democratic leaders have to primaries is not helping the party.

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It's early, but Iowa is looking a lot more favorable to Democrats than I had previously hoped or expected.

Why ? Because she out raised Ernst by $ 100k. You’re really overreacting here.

I mean, expectations were very low for Democrats in this race, so he might just mean relatively.

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I don't think Ernst will lose, but I don't think this is comparable to Kentucky, because:

1) Ernst isn't as well-known or universally disliked as McConnell
2) While Iowa might be trending Republican and an increasingly hard state for Democrats, it's still nowhere near as Republican as Kentucky.

I'd still rate this Likely R (closer to Lean than Safe), but I'd be surprised if Ernst won by anywhere near McConnell's eventual margin.

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If Ernst wins comfortably (which unfortunately is looking more likely each day,) it's because Iowa has become a red state, not because she's a "strong incumbent" or anything like that.

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This seat is pretty much wave insurance (I’d call it seat 54 for Democrats, since I don’t think Kobach will win the primary), but IA isn’t the most expensive state to spend in, and Democrats have three competitive seats to defend here in the House, so I don’t think a bit of money is such a bad idea here. It shouldn’t be instead of spending in GA and other more competitive races, though.

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Ernst definitely isn’t more vulnerable than Tillis (or Collins, Perdue or Daines, for that matter), but given that IA isn’t a very expensive state to spend in, it doesn’t hurt for Democrats to buy a few lottery tickets there. I just wish they were also spending in other “longshot” races as well. Unless Ernst falls quite a bit behind in the polls (more than 3-4%), I’ll continue to see her as favored, though I doubt she significantly overperforms Trump, and it’s possible she could narrowly underperform him, depending on how things play out.

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It’s possible, but not particularly likely. Ernst is pretty fortunate that IA has trended so far right, si ce she’d definitely be in trouble in a state that’s a Toss-Up at the presidential level.

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DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

This is definitely a poll to pay attention to. I’d imagine Ernst will be ahead in this poll, but the margin will be important to watch.

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If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

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If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

I can’t see IA being less than seat number 53 for Democrats, and even if that’s the case, where are Republicans going to gain four seats? AZ and NH would be vulnerable, and maybe they could flip NV if it’s a real red tsunami, but CO really doesn’t seem within reach for them, even under very good conditions. Unless Democrats end up with an absolutely terrible recruit in what ends up being an open seat, I really don’t seem them getting any more seats.

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Of course Atlas goes nuts over a poll that shows Ernst narrowly ahead . It’s not like that poll is less believable than the poll showing Daines up by 6.

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It’s pretty evident that Ernst is a moron, but I don’t see Greenfield winning over that many Trump voters, especially since Trump isn’t exactly a polished speaker or genius himself. I’d say she only has a shot if Trump is winning IA by 2 or less.

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Reduxes are overdone, but I think a better parallel if Ernst wins would be PA-SEN 2016 (incumbent initially seen as nearly safe because of early polls and a Weak Opponent™, then polls start to show the challenger leading, and people realize that the incumbent isn't that "strong" and start to consider the challenger favored. The incumbent then overperforms polls by just enough to win.)

If she loses (which I'm still not predicting, but it is definitely plausible if the environment is as good for Democrats as it seems), I'd say the right parallel would be CO-SEN 2014 (incumbent initially seen as safe because of the trends in the state, then the race ends up becoming much more competitive than expected, and polls show the incumbent losing. People assume that polls will underestimate the incumbent's party as they have in the past, but they end up being close to accurate in this particular race, and the incumbent narrowly loses.)

I've never been bullish on Greenfield's chances (I'd still give a very slight edge to Ernst), as those on this forum know, but I don't think calling this race a Toss-Up in a D+8-10 environment is unreasonable at all. The trend in Iowa isn't good for Democrats, and a win here would probably be the last time for a while Democrats would win a Senate race here, but Iowa isn't as Republican as Missouri yet, and there are cases of a party winning races in states where the trend is unfavorable for their party due to a favorable national environment.

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Welp, that settles it. No amount of retail-politicking can make up for Soybeangate.

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The race has been surprisingly stable according to polling (the average has been Greenfield +3 or so for a couple of months.) The question is how accurate polling is in IA this cycle.

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The race has been surprisingly stable according to polling (the average has been Greenfield +3 or so for a couple of months.) The question is how accurate polling is in IA this cycle.

Well, we had one poll today showing a tie and another one showing Ernst +1. I guess it just boils down to the question of whether you think IA is really a far more likely flip than all of KS, TX, MT, GA-R, and so on, or not. I happen to think the answer to that is no mostly due to fundamentals/trends (even if it amounts to memeing according to some people), but we’ll see what happens. If this really turns out to be seat 49/50/51 for Democrats and IA votes well to the left of most of the other competitive/Lean to Likely R races, I’ll gladly admit that I was completely wrong and that Iowa really is more of a true swing state than I thought.

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

I don't think it's a far more likely flip than KS or TX, but I do think it's somewhat more likely. GA-R and MT probably flip before IA, so I think it's probably seat 52 or 53. I don't think IA is a Toss-Up state in general, since we can't ignore that the national environment is (or at least seems to be) very good for Democrats. I think Ernst is very slightly favored (thanks to IA becoming increasing Republican-leaning compared to the rest of the country), but the idea that she would massively overperform Trump or become "the next Grassley" was always far-fetched, in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but if Biden wins by 8 or more nationally, I doubt Ernst wins by more than a narrow margin, and she could lose.

I agree that this thread will be a mess regardless of the result. Then again, so will the threads for MT-SEN, NC-SEN, and probably several more.

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My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

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Are we getting another Selzer poll of this race?