2018 Senate Rankings

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Not a bad list, though I think it's a bit too soon to call MO Likely R, since we don't know who McCaskill's opponent will be, and she could face a favorable environment. This early, I wouldn't move it past Lean R. Also, I'd definitely move CA to Safe D.

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I doubt that California is ever going to end up with two Republicans in a Senate race. Maybe a different down ballot race that won't get as much attention, but it would be a stretch for that to happen for a Senate race. Not only would the Democratic vote have to be very evenly fractured among many different candidates, but two Republicans would have to consolidate enough support to overtake every Democrat. It's hard to see two Republicans getting that much of the vote in a primary, and I doubt there wouldn't be at least one Democrat who would stand out from the crowd enough to at least get more than one of the Republicans. It's about as likely as a run-off between two Democrats occurring in Louisiana (for a Senate race).

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I doubt that California is ever going to end up with two Republicans in a Senate race. Maybe a different down ballot race that won't get as much attention, but it would be a stretch for that to happen for a Senate race. Not only would the Democratic vote have to be very evenly fractured among many different candidates, but two Republicans would have to consolidate enough support to overtake every Democrat. It's hard to see two Republicans getting that much of the vote in a primary, and I doubt there wouldn't be at least one Democrat who would stand out from the crowd enough to at least get more than one of the Republicans. It's about as likely as a run-off between two Democrats occurring in Louisiana (for a Senate race).

So this doesn't sound likely to you?:
Kevin Faulconer: 25%
Jeff Denham: 17%
Linda Sanchez: 15%
Fabian Nunez: 14%
Eric Garcetti: 11%
Hilda Solis: 10%
Others: 8%

I really don't get how this can sound so complicated to people.

It's not complicated, but it's not likely either. I doubt that would happen, unless no campaigning took place, and Democratic leaders were also evenly divided on which candidate to back. No doubt, several Democratic leaders would agree on at least one of those candidates, so it wouldn't be the case that each candidate would get an equal amount of funds. Thus, at least one would likely end up with an advertising advantage, and have more name recognition as a result. I can predict with 99.9999% confidence that this will not be an R vs. R race, and the Democrats will hold it. If anyone wants to challenge me on that, be my guest.

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Very early ratings:

Titanium D (1): MO
Safe D (13): CA, WA, HI, NM, VA, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, NY, VT
Likely D (1): MN
Lean D (2): MI, ME
Tossup (8 ): NV, MT, ND, WI, OH, PA, WV, FL
Lean R (1): AZ
Likely R (3): UT, TX, IN
Safe R (4): MS, TN, NE, WY

Edit: Oh wait, I already posted my ratings in this thread.

Nice map , but why isn't Indiana Titanium D?

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>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe
>90% = Titanium

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Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

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Changing a few ratings. I'm going to be "bold" and say that Ohio is Lean D, rather than overreacting to a single poll taken more than a year before the election.

4 polls have Mandel up, though one of them is gravis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2018

It's too soon to be putting a lot of stock in polls. Most polls in the latter half of 2015 had Strickland beating Portman, and yet Portman won by over 20. I highly doubt Brown will win by anything like that margin, but it just goes to show how little early polls actually tell us.

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Making a few changes.

AZ: Lean R -> Toss-Up
Flake is definitely more vulnerable than I thought, and Ward winning would be a trainwreck for Republicans. Tilt R if Flake survives the primary, Tilt D if Ward wins.

MO: Toss-Up -> Lean R
McCaskill is still the underdog, but this is definitely closer to Tilt R than Likely R. People on this forum are letting their personal feelings about McCaskill influence their predictions here, and there's a good chance that this won't serve them well. I could definitely see McCaskill surviving in a good year for Democrats.

NV: Toss-Up -> Lean D
I've been very generous to Heller, but he's running in an increasingly blue (Atlas red) state, and he's facing a more serious than expected primary challenge, so he's going to have a hard time getting as lucky this time as he did in 2012.

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Titanium D: Flawless Beautiful Claire !!! (D-MO)
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: MI, PA, WI
Lean D: NV (D Gain), OH, FL
Toss-Up: AZ, MT, ND, WV
Lean R: IN (R Gain)
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL (sane), MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

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(MN Special: Likely D)

IN, MO: Lean R -> Toss-Up: Donnelly and McCaskill are still in a lot of trouble, but if 2018 is as good for Democrats as it's looking like it could be, they have a decent chance of surviving.

WV: Toss-Up -> Lean D: Once Manchin retires, this will probably be an easy Republican pick-up, but I believe he's in a better position than any of the Romney state Democrats.

MS, TN ,TX: Safe R -> Likely R: Out of an abundance of caution. I don't see these seats flipping even in a Democratic wave, but I could be wrong and maybe the stars will align again for the Democrats in one of these states.

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How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

He was leading Brown in all available public polling. Also the GOP has only a month to find a replacement, who will have to start raising money from scratch very fast, lest Brown outspend them by too much early on.

You mean like how Strickland was leading Portman in early polling? Polls are practically meaningless this early on.

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I'd flip Arizona and Nevada, as well as Montana and Florida. Minnesota also probably doesn't belong on the list.

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(MN Special is Likely D)

MS Special: Likely R - Hood could make a real race out of this, but unless McDaniels proves to be Roy Moore levels of bad (which is possible), Republicans should be able to hold this seat.

MT: Toss-Up -> Lean D - I don't think Democrats can take this seat for granted, and Rosendale's not a bad candidate, but given the type of year 2018 is looking to be, and the fact that Montana is much more competitive at the statewide level, I think it's fair to say that Tester is favored for now.

NV: Lean D -> Likely D - I really don't see how Heller pulls this out. Nevada is a tough state for Republicans even under favorable conditions, as we saw in 2016. Unless Rosen really does prove to be Shelley Berkeley v 2.0, I have a hard time seeing Heller doing better than Trump's 2016 performance in the state, especially since he's done a great job of pissing off both Trump voters and Democrats.

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AZ: Toss-Up -> Lean D (Should have made this move earlier. Republicans are clearly at a disadvantage here, even if McSally wins the primary.)
MI: Likely D -> Safe D (Stabenow would likely win even in an environment more favorable for Republicans. In this environment, there's no way she's losing.)
OH: Lean D -> Likely D (This race is really not even looking that competitive, at this point)
TN: Likely R -> Lean R (Bredesen looks like he's actually making a race out of this.)

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Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

I'm guessing that this map is a collection of Atlas memes (Safe R WI, Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, Titanium Tester, Nelson in BIG trouble, Manchin is DOA since Blankenship didn't win, Menendez is totally vulnerable, etc.)

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Well, Solid's ratings make about as much sense as those who think Republicans will gain 8 seats.

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Haven’t really changed my ratings, but just thought I’d mention here that Larry Sabato finally moved WI-SEN from Lean D to Likely D. He also moved PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D.

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Two changes:

FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up, since Nelson still seems to be struggling here. My gut says that he hangs on and it won´t be especially close, but we´re close enough to election day that it is fair to call this race legitimately competitive.

WV: Lean D -> Likely D. Manchin´s been polling quite strongly here, and Morrisey is really proving to be a mediocre candidate. Unlike Florida, this race is looking less and less competitive.

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Moving WI-SEN and PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D. Before anyone screams "BUT 2016!!!" at me, a few things...

1) 2018 is not 2016

2) Baldwin and Casey are not Hillary Clinton

3) Vukmir and Barletta are not Trump

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Great map! I'd change Maine to Lean R, though, since Brakey works out even harder than Hawley.

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I love how people are moving Arizona from Likely D to Lean R because of McSally's win. Did people seriously think that she wouldn't win the primary? Sinema was never guaranteed to win, and McSally isn't suddenly favored now that she won the primary against two joke candidates who were splitting the same base.

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IL-17 going Republican?

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IL-17 going Republican?

He edited his post. That was changed.

I made that post before he edited his map.

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WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

You mean his internal from four months ago?

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WV not at likely D lol.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t trust polling at all?

Trusts Pat's internal and the fundamentals.

You mean his internal from four months ago?

Yes, the fundamentals point towards that.

Maybe they did in May, but now... lol.