Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO

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Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

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Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

I don't think anyone except the biggest Democratic hacks consider PA a "safe blue state." I would call it a Lean D state, as it's less elastic than states like CO, IA, and NH, and I would expect at least the first two to go Republican before PA. The PVI of one election is not the be-all, end-all. Consider this:

CO: Obama +5.4, rated toss-up
VA: Obama +3.9, rated toss-up
OH: Obama +3, rated toss-up
NC: Romney +2, rated Lean/Likely R

I'm aware that Obama won the popular vote fairly easily, but why should we assume the popular vote will be a tie?

Just because PA almost ended up being the tipping point state in 2012 doesn't mean that it will be in 2016. As I said, it's not safe for the Democrats, but in an extremely close election (think 2000), I'm 99% confident that it will go Democratic.

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Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

I don't think anyone except the biggest Democratic hacks consider PA a "safe blue state." I would call it a Lean D state, as it's less elastic than states like CO, IA, and NH, and I would expect at least the first two to go Republican before PA. The PVI of one election is not the be-all, end-all. Consider this:

CO: Obama +5.4, rated toss-up
VA: Obama +3.9, rated toss-up
OH: Obama +3, rated toss-up
NC: Romney +2, rated Lean/Likely R

I'm aware that Obama won the popular vote fairly easily, but why should we assume the popular vote will be a tie?

Just because PA almost ended up being the tipping point state in 2012 doesn't mean that it will be in 2016. As I said, it's not safe for the Democrats, but in an extremely close election (think 2000), I'm 99% confident that it will go Democratic.

You wrote a lot of words that ended up stating that you are 99% certain that PA will have a Dem PVI, without really saying why. What I have been saying, is that it is foolish really to have much certainty one way or the other as to whether PA will have a Dem PVI. Sure, odds are that it will, but the odds are hardly anywhere near 99%. Maybe 60% or 65% seems more like it to me.

You don't think there's evidence? Okay then... PA hasn't gone Republican since the 80s, it's had a Democratic PVI in every recent election, and there's very little evidence suggesting that it's trending Republican, other than that Obama "only" won it by 5.4%. Claiming that PA will go Democratic in a close race is an assumption, but it's much more justified than the assumption that it's a pure toss-up, and as much of one as states that haven't gone for the same party in every election, don't have a stable PVI, and show a clear trend in one direction or anything. Stating PA is as competitive as OH as a "fact" is as ludicrous as claiming that AZ is as likely to go Democratic as NC, or even FL. Or saying it's a "fact" that CO will magically become a Safe R state next year. There's no guarantee that the future will resemble the past, but it's a much more justified view to hold than the idea that the future will be radically different without any sign of change.

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Obvious 2016 Map:

I'd say it's more like this: