MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (user search)
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  MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate this race
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D		  
#5
Tossup		  
#6
Tilt R		  
#7
Lean R		  
#8
Likely R		  
#9
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 284

Author Topic: MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread  (Read 132085 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: August 14, 2015, 09:17:23 PM »
I think she's the most endangered. Hard to see her hanging on again unless it's a good Democratic year, or Republicans nominate a weak candidate.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2015, 05:21:51 PM »
Quote from: Wulfric on August 14, 2015, 09:23:37 PM
Quote from: xingkerui on August 14, 2015, 09:17:23 PM
I think she's the most endangered. Hard to see her hanging on again unless it's a good Democratic year, or Republicans nominate a weak candidate.

What makes Donnelly less endangered? I'm aware he survived 2010, but his opponent was Walorski - not exactly the strongest specimen.

Democrats have a better chance in Indiana than Missouri, by this point. Donnelly is also more moderate than McCaskill, and he's not a bad campaigner either. Both will have tough re-election bids, but I'm guessing McCaskill's will be tougher.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2015, 04:14:22 PM »
I don't see McCaskill getting Blanched in 2018. Missouri's definitely quite Republican-leaning by this point, but it's not Arkansas. She'll be the underdog for sure, but even if she loses fairly badly, I doubt she'll lose by more than 10 or 11.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2016, 01:57:04 PM »
Yep, she's definitely going to lose. We can comfortably make this prediction now, just like we could in 2010. Smiley
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2016, 02:35:36 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 01, 2016, 02:02:13 PM
Of course she can win if Clinton is president - just like Ron Johnson "can" win reelection this year. Smiley

I certainly wouldn't have said Johnson was toast back in 2014. If McCaskill gets a decent opponent, 2018 starts looking like a bad year for Democrats, and she trails in every single poll, then her position will be comparable to Johnson's right now.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2016, 05:23:14 PM »
All Republicans have to do is not screw up the primary, and hope that Trump isn't so unpopular that McCaskill can just run against him. Shouldn't be too hard, right? Wink
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2017, 09:53:51 PM »
Kander was never going to primary McCaskill. I could see him running against Greitens in 2020, or possibly against Blunt again in 2022.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2017, 03:59:34 PM »
Hmmm, let's see...

FLAWLESS. BEAUTIFUL. CLAIRE. Purple heart will win in 2018!

Am I doing this right? Wink
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2017, 12:20:03 AM »
Quote from: Jimmie on May 14, 2017, 09:43:17 PM
President Claire McCaskill does have a nice ring to it...

Do y'all agree?

I don't know, Supreme Ruler of the Earth Claire McCaskill sounds a bit better to me. Wink
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2017, 12:29:38 PM »
This forum is going to be a mess when this race is called, no matter who wins...

I'd rate it a Toss-Up now, at least until Hawley commits to running.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2017, 12:34:30 PM »
Guess the McCaskill haters need to take down their "Congratulations, Senator Wagner!" decorations. Wink

This is looking more like a Toss-Up. Republicans should be at least a bit worried that a lot of potential candidates have backed out of their respective races. It could just be bad luck, or it could be that they're seeing the writing on the wall.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2017, 10:58:40 AM »
She's more moderate than the average Democrat in Congress, but conservatives will probably see her as a liberal.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2017, 04:42:39 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on August 02, 2017, 02:41:43 PM
Tombstone #22346: Senator Claire McCaskill

Born: January 3, 2007
Died: January 3, 2019



More like preemptive prediction #4829581039
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2018, 04:27:17 PM »
Yes, clearly a Republican governor resigning will help a Republican Senate candidate in the same state. Roll Eyes

Toss-Up before, Toss-Up now (not a hack)
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #14 on: July 04, 2018, 10:40:14 PM »
Large if accurate
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