Election betting thread.

[RR1997]

Rules:
1. Every poster starts out with $1,000.

2. Make bets with other posters on this thread.

For example:
Poster 1: I am willing to bet $50 dollars that Trump will win Indiana. Does anyone object to my prediction?
Poster 2: I don't think that Trump will win Indiana. I'll bet against you.

If Trump wins Indiana, then Poster 2 loses $50 from his original $1,000 while Poster 1 gains $50. If Trump loses Indiana, then Poster 1 gains $50 while Poster 2 loses that amount.

3. No bet can be higher than $1,000

4. RULE CHANGE: You will not earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

5. You can't withdraw from a bet.

You get the idea.

Who ever ends up with the most money by Election Day wins.

I will keep track of the bank balances of each player. You're name will be added to list once you make a bet or when you bet against someone else.

Current Balance:
RR1997: $1,000
OC: $1,000
SteveMcQueen: $1,000
Castro: $1,000
Baki: $1,000
Harry: $1,000
MikeWells12: $1,000
CXS018: $1,000
Sandater: $1,000
Higgs: $1,000
SMilo: $1,000
ExtremeRepublican: $1,000
Doctor Imperialism: $1,000
TNVolunteer: $1,000
Sportydude: $1,000
Xingkerui: $1,000
Dax00: $1,000
Sorenroy: $1,000
Meclazine: $1,000
Badger: $1,000
Pho: $1,000
Darthebearnc: $1,000

I WILL REMOVE OBVIOUS BETS.

The following bets have been removed:

$50 that Trump wins West Virginia

I bet $1000 that Trump wins West Virginia.

Also, I bet 200 that Trump wins WV.

I'll wager $500 on Trump winning WV in the primary, and you only have to put up $100 to go against me.

I now bet my remaining $500 that Ted Cruz does not drop out by 10:15 PM EST on May 1, 2016.

Betting $1000 that Cruz doesn't drop out by 10:20, etc.

$1000 that Trump cracks 60% in WV.

The following bets are still open (no one has accepted these bets yet, feel free to accept some of these if you believe that their predictions are going to be false)

I'll bet $15 that Trump will win Oregon.

$1,000 that Hillary wins under 53% in the general.

$50 that Cruz wins Nebraska
$50 that Trump wins West Virginia
$50 that Sanders wins Oregon
$50 that Trump wins Oregon
$25 that Trump wins Washington

I bet 100$ that Trump wins CA primary by double digits.

$1000 that TRUMP will win Indiana.

I bet $1000 that Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire in November.

And for my last two bets (for now):

$15 on Trump being the nominee.
$250 that Trump will not pick Kasich as his running mate.

That is all, all my money is tied up, so I'll be making my leave.

I'll also bet $100 that Sanders wins SD.

I'll put $200 on Trump winning Oregon, AND I'll give you 5-2 odds (i.e. your $200 bet will get you $500).

I'll also take a single $100 bet (first post, first served) at even odds Trump wins IN.

I'll offer up the following bets:

a. 5:3 odds that during Trump's speech on Tuesday, he says the phrase "crooked Hillary" at least twice (Trump says it 2+ times → you give me $20; Trump says it once or not at all → i give you $12)

b. 2:7 odds that Cruz will not withdraw from the race or suspend his campaign on Tuesday or Wednesday (Central Daylight Time) (he stays in → you give me $30; he withdraws/suspends → i give you $105)

Trump wins California $400

500$ that Hillary wins more than 350 electoral votes.
250$ that Hillary wins AZ
250$ Hillary wins more than 80% of the hispanic vote.

[RR1997]

I'll start:

I am willing to bet $35 that Sanders will defeat Hillary in Indiana. Does anyone object to my prediction?

[RR1997]

20 on Cruz winning IN

I predict a Trump victory in Indiana. I'll bet against you.

I'll gain $20 if Trump wins Indiana, and you'll gain $20 if Cruz wins.

Others can join OC's bet too. Let's just say that OC is correct and two people betted against him. He'd gain $40 in this scenario (since two people betted against him).

[RR1997]

I'll bet $15 that Trump will win Oregon.

[RR1997]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties. If you were to bet against Castro, and Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, then you'd gain $500 while he'd lose that amount.

One more rule: No bet can be higher than $1000.

[RR1997]

I'll bet $30 that Trump will win California (primaries).

[RR1997]

$150 that no Romney state will vote for Hillary

I'll bet against you.

[RR1997]

I'll bet $400 that Trump wins more electoral votes than Romney.

I'll bet against you

Note: If Trump were to get the exact same amount of electoral votes as Romney did, I still win.

[RR1997]

I'll keep track of this.

1. I'll make this a little more interesting. You have to pay a $500 fee to withdraw from a bet. You lose $500 if you decide to withdraw from a bet.
2. A bet lasts until the results. For example, if someone made a bet related to the Indiana primaries, the bet will end when we find out the results of the Indiana primaries. I don't want to be rude, but shouldn't this be common sense?
3.

I bet $500 that Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties. If you were to bet against Castro, and Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, then you'd gain $500 while he'd lose that amount.

One more rule: No bet can be higher than $1000.

[RR1997]

Just to clarify, if Indiana is not within 6 points for both parties, Castro would still lose $500 even if no one agrees to bet against him. This applies to all other bets made too. Castro would gain $500 if Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

Doesn't that mean someone can just make a series of obviously safe bets that nobody accepts in order to earn an infinite amount of money?

This is Atlas. Every bet has at least a chance to be accepted. I was perusing the 2008 boards today, and I happened to find somebody saying McCain would win easily a week before Election Day.

Good point.

New rule: I will remove obvious bets.

The following bets have been removed:

$50 that Trump wins West Virginia

I bet $1000 that Trump wins West Virginia.

Also, I bet 200 that Trump wins WV.

I'll wager $500 on Trump winning WV in the primary, and you only have to put up $100 to go against me.

[RR1997]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Fine. This rule will take effect starting right now. This will make sure no one makes money off obvious bets.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

Absolutely not. Your current balance is at $500 because you withdrew from your WV bet.

[RR1997]

I bet $500 that Indiana is within 6 points for both parties.

I will bet against you.

[RR1997]

The following bets are still open (no one has accepted these bets yet, feel free to accept some of these if you believe that their predictions are going to be false):

I'll bet $15 that Trump will win Oregon.

$1,000 that Hillary wins under 53% in the general.

$50 that Cruz wins Nebraska
$50 that Trump wins West Virginia
$50 that Sanders wins Oregon
$50 that Trump wins Oregon
$25 that Trump wins Washington

I bet 100$ that Trump wins CA primary by double digits.

$1000 that TRUMP will win Indiana.

I bet $1000 that Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire in November.

And for my last two bets (for now):

$15 on Trump being the nominee.
$250 that Trump will not pick Kasich as his running mate.

That is all, all my money is tied up, so I'll be making my leave.

I'll also bet $100 that Sanders wins SD.

I'll put $200 on Trump winning Oregon, AND I'll give you 5-2 odds (i.e. your $200 bet will get you $500).

I'll also take a single $100 bet (first post, first served) at even odds Trump wins IN.

I'll offer up the following bets:

a. 5:3 odds that during Trump's speech on Tuesday, he says the phrase "crooked Hillary" at least twice (Trump says it 2+ times → you give me $20; Trump says it once or not at all → i give you $12)

b. 2:7 odds that Cruz will not withdraw from the race or suspend his campaign on Tuesday or Wednesday (Central Daylight Time) (he stays in → you give me $30; he withdraws/suspends → i give you $105)

Trump wins California $400

500$ that Hillary wins more than 350 electoral votes.
250$ that Hillary wins AZ
250$ Hillary wins more than 80% of the hispanic vote.

[RR1997]

^dax00 accepted my NV bet.

I just noticed my mistake. I just fixed it. Sorry about that.

[RR1997]

Just don't let people earn money from bets that nobody accepts.

Fine. This rule will take effect starting right now. This will make sure no one makes money off obvious bets.

Also, do I get to keep my $2000?

Absolutely not. Your current balance is at $500 because you withdrew from your WV bet.

Yes, but that was under the assumption that I would be able to place the new bet. If I had known you would cancel the new bets, I would have not canceled the first bet. Therefore, I assume, the first bet is back on and my balance is once more $1000.

Fine. You're balance is at $1000, but your first bet will remain canceled.

[RR1997]

Thanks, dax00.

You can bet more than $1,000 in total btw. One single bet can't be higher than $1000 though.

[RR1997]

Thank you guys for doing this. I agree that we should ban bet withdrawals. I've been very busy.

[RR1997]

Thanks for all your help, dax00.

I will update the first post tomorrow.