Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,917
Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48
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« on: November 04, 2019, 12:00:13 AM » |
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« edited: November 04, 2019, 01:03:08 AM by Free Bird »
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Here's a scenario:
1. Biden/Warren defeats Trump by flipping back Michigan and Florida; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin narrowly stay red.
2. Rs gain ~5-8 seats in the House, give or take, mostly gimmes like Horn and Cunningham. Roy Cooper hangs on in North Carolina while Greg Gianforte flips Montana's governorship red.
3. The Senate is D+1 for 52-48 R. McSally, Jones, and Gardner lose to Kelly, Tuberville, and Hickenlooper, respectively, while Peters, Smith, and Tillis hang on. Collins and Murkowski are effectively in the driver's seat again, meaning President Biden could still conceivably get some things done.
4. Biden manages to pass a repeal of large parts of TCJA, Free College, an infrastructure package, universal background checks, and a public option in his first two years, as well as reentering the PCAs and Iran Deal. Wall construction is halted for one year and DACA reinstated.
5. The 2022 midterms act as midterms usually do. Rs gain a House majority slightly larger than the current Democratic majority and gain two Senate seats by holding everything (Gallagher, Fitzpatrick, and Bishop replace Johnson, Toomey, and Burr respectively) and flipping Arizona and New Hampshire back (Doug Ducey and Chris Sununu specifically). The Senate is back to 54 Rs, and the governorships of Wisconsin (Sean Duffy), Kansas (Jeff Colyer), and Maine (Paul LePage) are back in R hands, too, along with Connecticut (Erin Stewart). Maryland and Massachusetts, with Baker deciding against a third term, however, flip back to blue (John Delaney and Seth Moulton).
6. Biden, in his 80s and having fulfilled his life's dream, decides to retire after one term. The 2024 election is thus between Kamala Harris (Warren decides she is too old) and Ron DeSantis (pick whatever VP you want for them both).
7. DeSantis defeats Harris by running as a consensus-building technocrat with a brand of more palatable MAGAism to keep the WWC base fired up, though not to the same fervent, cult-like levels as Trump (he keeps the Trumps at arms' length despite owing his political viability to still-active 45th President). He wins the Trump map plus Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and ME-AL. His Hispanic score is a few points below Bush 2004 and his black score about 9%, leading AZ, TX, and GA to more resemble 2012 margins while also making the margins in the Rust Belt all above 1% to varying degrees. The suburbs come back but aren't as strong for DeSantis as they were for Bush due to DeSantis still making a WWC pitch. This combination of the warring GOP factions' respective base visions is what ultimately lets him carry the states. MI-Sen and MN-Sen, however, continue to narrowly escape R hands. TPUSA is reduced to nigh-irrelevance during all this time.
Do you take this deal if offered to you by the Election Gods? Four years of basically Obama Redux and a reversal of many Trump accomplishments for a more steady, popularizable, but again kinda boring GOP who will have to take some time to reinstate some Trump policies but then is able to start fresh, with a very strong chance of building a more modern, sustainable coalition?
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