AZ-SEN 2: Kyl be back

[Free Bird]

Meghan gets extremely angry during discussions on the View, so I doubt she has the temperament to be a Senator even just as a caretaker.

You do know which half of her genes gave her that, right? LMAO

[Free Bird]

B-List Twitter Pundit, former History professor, and Arizona resident Larry Schweikart says he has a source who was in on the meeting. Apparently it won't be Cindy or Meghan, nor a sitting Congressman.

[Free Bird]

B-List Twitter Pundit, former History professor, and Arizona resident Larry Schweikart says he has a source who was in on the meeting. Apparently it won't be Cindy or Meghan, nor a sitting Congressman.

Larry Schweikart is pretty nutty. He's a far righter who voted for Ann Kirkpatrick over John McCain because he hated McCain that much, lol.

Might be right about this, though. I just wanted to make clear my disdain for Schweikart. Dude's off his rockers.

That and his profile picture on Twitter and nicknames for politicians are really cringey and straight out of a 2011 Tea Party Facebook page. Though I've got to say, his monthly updates on voter registration numbers, which he compiles from government websites, ARE very interesting and helpful. And he wasn't all that inaccurate in his 2016 prediction.

[Free Bird]

Az Republic reports that the appointment will not happen until after services are done, which is appropriate.

Our state will go from having one of the most senior members of the senate, to having the two most junior senators in the senate after November.

Wouldn't the appointee gain a fair amount of seniority at the start of the next Congress? And wouldn't either Sinema or McSally have seniority over Hawley if he wins?

[Free Bird]

Seems that Jon Kyl is gaining some steam in the rumor mill

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Brewer or Salmon are high on Ducey's list. I'm hoping for Salmon.

...Senator...Jan Brewer. Why did the room suddenly get so cold?

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https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/09/04/jon-kyl-named-john-mccain-replacement-senate-appointment-ducey/1148030002/?csp=chromepush

[Free Bird]

If anyone read the article, then it suggests that Kyl may only be staying till the end of 2018 - an effective "kicking the can down the road" move for the presently divided AZGOP. In that sense, Kyl's three great strengths might have been his age - preventing a full or even partial term, his noncontroversial nature - Kyl's a known factor, and his reliability in the Kavanaugh vote. 

I'd think he at least serves until the special. Whether he runs in 2020 is the big question. If he's convinced to do that, I see no reason why he wouldn't run in 2022, then. McConnell would definitely want him there to defend a vulnerable seat if it's a sixth-year itch.

If Kyl wins but Trump loses, though, I could see him stepping down in 2022.

[Free Bird]

He's said he won't. If he steps down at the end of the session, then whoever is appointed next will run in 2020. If he stays for the entirety of the 116th Congress, then I would say we could see Lesko, Gosar, and the loser of this year's race run. I'd rate it Lean R for now, considering that there will be presidential-level turnout in a state that is still, for now, nominally Republican. If Trump loses Arizona, it'll still be narrowly, and McCain far outperformed Trump in 2016, giving the Senate candidate some wiggle room.

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Mostly no incumbency, AZ's D trend, and the fact that the AZGOP is imploding

It's definitely trending D (even if Rs have still had a net gain of voters over Ds since the election), but it's not so dramatic as to make it an easy Dem pickup. I think we'll have to see what the margins are for Senate and Governor this year to get a good marker.

[Free Bird]

Why is every Democrat here so casually certain this will be a D pickup in 2020? It won't be a cakewalk R hold, but it won't be an easy D pickup, either.

Because Kelli Ward will almost certainly be the Republican nominee.

We were saying that about this year before McSally jumped in. You don't think Schweikert, Lesko, and Ducey (and probably others) are already starting to maneuver? You don't think they have a "Stop Kelli Ward from Being Nominated Ever" folder on standby LOL?