Is Home State a Big Factor in a Presidential Candidate’s Nomination Chances?

[Free Bird]

Can a presidential candidate’s home state systemically affect their chance at winning the presidential nod of their party, or is it just something that often compounds into other reasons such as lack of name recognition? I.e, would the Senator from Idaho have a shot?

I personally don’t think so, I just think it can make it worse, but it can be overcome. Of course, an Andrew Cuomo, being from a largely populated state, would have an easier start from higher name recognition, whereas nobody that isn’t a political junkies outside of Wyoming knows who Mike Enzi is, so he wouldn’t go anywhere.

I think it’s about name recognition and the access to money it brings. That’s why Bernie Sanders did as well as he did and how Bob Dole got the nod. It’s just that people from states with smaller populations have to actively try and build their profile, and we know this because for every Bernie, you get a Chris Dodd.

[Free Bird]

If it did, would John Kerry or Michael Dukakis ever have had a shot?

Under the home state assumptions, MA would be among the states that could produce viable candidates, due to the large Boston media market and donor base.