Predict the Bavarian state election (October 2018)

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Why do we think CSU-AfD is not a likely post-election coalition? Isn't the CSU much less hostile to the AfD than the CDU?

The CSU is very hostile to the AfD because it fears them encroaching on their turf. They do not want to see the party establish itself as a permanent presence.

There is also the problem that the "median voter" in Germany (and Bavaria) dislikes the AfD, even if they dislike the refugees. They're going to need a few years to establish themselves before coalitions are viable.

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The big nightmare will be if an East German election gives a result where neither the grand coalition nor a Red-Red have a majority, but both the Greens and the FDP don't get in. That would just lead to an impossible dilemma.