Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Zinneke]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

Everything from the (anti-Semitic) Merchant of Venice reference to the glorification of Golda Meir as someone who could possibly be suited to the current Israeli political scene make this one of the worst posts on Israel I have seen. Full stop.

[Zinneke]

What is Deri referring to when he says the Ashkenazi comitted a genocide against Mizrahi? Like I get its bullsh**t but is there a specific lieu de mémoire he is referring to?


 Does this not affect his relations with UTJ?

[Zinneke]

Is there any chance Otzma’s overreach will create a backlash that can bring the whole of the right down?

Sure -- at the moment the government is pretty unpopular and is not doing well at the polls. That said, there is no election expected until 2026, and under the present electoral laws which tiny parties hit the threshold and which don't can overwhelm even decently-sized swings.

If an election were somehow forced right now, though, you would expect Bibi to lose. But there are like 3 more years to go.

Yes, contemporary Israeli governments are durable, it's not like they've had almost an election every year recently.

[Zinneke]

Why are the headlines saying the far right parties are the ones putting Bibi under pressure, threatening to leave? Are they asking Bibi to continue forward or do they realise they overplayed their hand and want him to postpone it?

[Zinneke]

Checks and Balances is one of the best ways to defend liberty

There's depressingly little real evidence for this given how much sense it makes on paper and how thoroughly most Americans believe it.

...is that the case? America has a far older constitution than most other developed democratic nations and has done a very strong job at maintaining the freedoms that it considers fundamental, like freedom of speech (far broader in the US than other nations), the freedom to bear arms (barely or non-existent elsewhere), and the freedom not to have soldiers quartered in your home (never seriously questioned). A comparison to, for example, Britain -- which has a similar culture in many ways, but no written constitution and parliamentary supremacy -- seems to leave checks and balances looking very good to my eyes.

Such a strong job that African Americans only exercised some of the rights you cite from the 60s onwards...nevermind the Patriot Act and how civil liberties were crushed in favour of "yeehaw I can buy an AR-15 therefore I'm free".

[Zinneke]

Checks and Balances is one of the best ways to defend liberty

There's depressingly little real evidence for this given how much sense it makes on paper and how thoroughly most Americans believe it.

...is that the case? America has a far older constitution than most other developed democratic nations and has done a very strong job at maintaining the freedoms that it considers fundamental, like freedom of speech (far broader in the US than other nations), the freedom to bear arms (barely or non-existent elsewhere), and the freedom not to have soldiers quartered in your home (never seriously questioned). A comparison to, for example, Britain -- which has a similar culture in many ways, but no written constitution and parliamentary supremacy -- seems to leave checks and balances looking very good to my eyes.

Such a strong job that African Americans only exercised some of the rights you cite from the 60s onwards...nevermind the Patriot Act and how civil liberties were crushed in favour of "yeehaw I can buy an AR-15 therefore I'm free".

Ah, yes, Britain's control orders and TPIM notices were certainly much fairer than anything the Patriot Act did, and the left and the right are probably both very happy with Britain's free speech record. Certainly Britain has no restrictions on 'hate speech' or anything of that nature. (Oh wait).

Also, yes, somebody who cannot buy an AR-15 in the modern world is not considered free by the American mainstream on civil liberties, nor would they by the people who created that mainstream. (Britain also once had a right to bear arms, incidentally -- only for Protestants in 1689, but still -- and I observe that this is an excellent example of the American checks-and-balances system preserving a right that Britain's parliamentary supremacy has ditched).

But seriously, this is the Israel thread, if we're not going to tie this to the debate over Knesset supremacy/the Israeli Supreme Court we should move this to another thread.

Full of strawmen, weird non-seqiturs, and just plain sociopathic rhetoric to rival jaichind's...no point debating with such a bad faith, paid up member of the hyperauthoritarian cult of American exceptionalism.

[Zinneke]

Checks and Balances is one of the best ways to defend liberty

There's depressingly little real evidence for this given how much sense it makes on paper and how thoroughly most Americans believe it.

...is that the case? America has a far older constitution than most other developed democratic nations and has done a very strong job at maintaining the freedoms that it considers fundamental, like freedom of speech (far broader in the US than other nations), the freedom to bear arms (barely or non-existent elsewhere), and the freedom not to have soldiers quartered in your home (never seriously questioned). A comparison to, for example, Britain -- which has a similar culture in many ways, but no written constitution and parliamentary supremacy -- seems to leave checks and balances looking very good to my eyes.

Such a strong job that African Americans only exercised some of the rights you cite from the 60s onwards...nevermind the Patriot Act and how civil liberties were crushed in favour of "yeehaw I can buy an AR-15 therefore I'm free".

Ah, yes, Britain's control orders and TPIM notices were certainly much fairer than anything the Patriot Act did, and the left and the right are probably both very happy with Britain's free speech record. Certainly Britain has no restrictions on 'hate speech' or anything of that nature. (Oh wait).

Also, yes, somebody who cannot buy an AR-15 in the modern world is not considered free by the American mainstream on civil liberties, nor would they by the people who created that mainstream. (Britain also once had a right to bear arms, incidentally -- only for Protestants in 1689, but still -- and I observe that this is an excellent example of the American checks-and-balances system preserving a right that Britain's parliamentary supremacy has ditched).

But seriously, this is the Israel thread, if we're not going to tie this to the debate over Knesset supremacy/the Israeli Supreme Court we should move this to another thread.

Full of strawmen, weird non-seqiturs, and just plain sociopathic rhetoric to rival jaichind's...no point debating with such a bad faith, paid up member of the hyperauthoritarian cult of American exceptionalism.

…what part of that was a strawman or a non sequitur? You brought up the Patriot Act and gun rights (!?) as examples of America valuing civil liberties less than Britain; I pointed out that Britain enacted measures very similar to your first example and that your second example is a civil liberty that Britain abandoned. (I guess the free speech stuff you didn’t discuss, but it seems like the central civil liberty to me and like one where Britain’s record is remarkably bad relative to peer nations. Also, I discussed it in the initial post which you were quoting).

And, yes, my family made huge sacrifices and struggled for years to assimilate to “yeehaw I can buy an AR-15” culture, with that as substantially the end-goal, so I am in that sense very much “paid up” to right-wing Americana. It is more the case that we have paid in, though.

[Zinneke]

Is Gantz trying to target Likud voters or trying to position himself as a sort of nondescript head of the civil society movement?

Also are Labor and Meretz considering a reformation of the Israeli left? What are their relations right now?

[Zinneke]

Is Gantz trying to target Likud voters or trying to position himself as a sort of nondescript head of the civil society movement?

Also are Labor and Meretz considering a reformation of the Israeli left? What are their relations right now?

Gantz is trying to target "soft" Likud voters by positioning himself as  nondescript civil society leader who leans center right.

Given the inverted commas, do you still think such a thing as a soft Likud voter, who disagrees with Netenyahu and the Kahanists but wants a right-wing government, exists? Or are most Likud voters by now fully on board whichever direction their leader goes?

[Zinneke]

IMO Israel should restrict voting rights to those who served in the IDF, otherwise the Haredim will multiply and take control.

Maybe another idea is imposing a punitive tax on ultra-orthodox Jews, who aren't that much different than the Taliban.

If Israel has a democratic future it needs to be majority Secular/Reform/Conservative.

You're insane.

In situations like this it's important to not become who you claim your opponent is. Secularists should be pushing for a constitutional compromise, not a military coup or disenfranchisement of the Haredi as voters. 

The Haredi also seemed to be brazen about the fact that their relationship with the state of Israel is purely transactional until recently (interested to hear the views of the Israeli posters about this)? The more adequate comparison to the Taliban is the Kahanists that Ben Gvir will personally make into a militia if he gets his way.

[Zinneke]

IMO Israel should restrict voting rights to those who served in the IDF, otherwise the Haredim will multiply and take control.

Maybe another idea is imposing a punitive tax on ultra-orthodox Jews, who aren't that much different than the Taliban.

If Israel has a democratic future it needs to be majority Secular/Reform/Conservative.

So a modern version of the Spartan Constitution? I like the things you say Mr Baerbock…

Eritrean too.

[Zinneke]

Seriously? After several defections (starting arguably with Bennett), and new attempts to create a Bibi-less Likud-style party, surely whoever is in Likud now is a die hard?

[Zinneke]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

Haredi are basically the Jewish Taliban.

In what way are they the ‘Jewish Taliban’?

they have long beards