🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[Zinneke]

The Timmermans I remember was less cringe tbh. I think he'll flop. He's still an excellent communicator, but he's been Brusselised. And not in the architectural way.

[Zinneke]

There's already been an attempt at a blue labour style split of of PvdA obsessed with being both centrist but also anti-wokd but it was just a personalist vehicle for the MP that had a tetchy relationship with the leadership. Monarch for me was more trying to build a serious alternative to PvdA and SP.

[Zinneke]

 I think Omzigt joining in is much more existentially worse for CDA than it is for BBB. BBB are probably also comfortable not growing too fast. CDA are gonna just be another testimonial throwback party soon.

[Zinneke]

I look forward to the Guardian pronouncing a progressive triumph when GL-PvDA come first in a crowded field with 27 seats and 17% of the vote.

Or when the Times crowns Baudet as kingmaker with his measely 2 seats even though he got beat by an animal rights party

Oh wait that already happened...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/anti-eu-boy-wonder-breezes-in-as-dutch-election-kingmaker-9p8n0sqhq

[Zinneke]

Weirdo intellectual —> leader of a microparty —> (provincial) election winner —> Covid denialist —> Putin simp —> purveyor of Roman Empire themed pyramid schemes —> ?

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1716489022078632015

This reminds me of Laurent Louis's trajectory. The guy was an MR councillor in Nivelles, then defected to peak boomer bourgeois Right formation Parti Populaire, then started towing conspiracy theories about the Dutroux case and Di Rupo, then was kicked out of PP and formed a Dieudonné-Soralien anti-Semitic party Debout les Belges that had members of ISLAM party in it, embezzled funds from several people in that party, then got involved with billionaire cryptoqueen in OneCoin and now is trying to get on an electoral list in France as an MEP.

Behind every right-wing populist there's really just a cheap grift (as opposed to the more sophisticated ones mainstream parties provide).

[Zinneke]

I was in Rotterdam to remind myself how a semi-functional city works...are individual party posters banned now? There used to be loads of posters with either the party slogan or the list leader? You could barely tell there was an election on.

[Zinneke]

There are less posters in most countries these days. I suppose it reflects that there's less absolute loyalty towards particular political parties now.

Ah, might be why there are still so many in Wallonia and Brussels then, sadly. They don't even bother with slogans. Just the last name and the colour of the party is usually enough.

[Zinneke]

It's quite remarkable how there's such a large number of parties and yet they only occupy 2 quadrants of the graph. What is the difference between the left/right and progressive/conservative axis supposed to be?

It's always been an axis designed for American politics so I'm still not sure why people apply it to European. I imagine if there were a European-style axis, SP would be "Left-Conservative", and D66 somewhat more "Right-Progressive" but even then it's not really clear cut.

[Zinneke]

Anyone want to predict who will top the exit poll?

Wilders, but it doesn't matter who's top

[Zinneke]

Are the odds of a 2024 election greater than 50%?

I think more likely is they all ride out the EP elections with an interim government then form a coalition that nobody likes.

[Zinneke]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

Is it? Some Dutch far right parties and the SP are not far off Juche Thought or National Bolshevism.

[Zinneke]

This is the second election in a row in which the combined score of the left parties was under a quarter of the vote. There was also no obvious sign of a serious recovery in those places where the collapse over the past decade has been particularly severe. This should prompt serious reflection at the very least (and as to that matter, well, my general views would not be a secret), but I suspect that it won't.

The issue is immigration, and your general views are a secret, just like many quiet center-left voters you refuse to engage in the subject altogether. In many ways I respect more the people like Volt who at least talk of pragmatic solutions like the need for equal redistribution of migrants across EU. The 4-sided villa lefties simply don't understand the strain of immigration on urban society.

[Zinneke]

Niemand in de Nederlandse media heeft het woord "communisme" gebruikt, dus geen idee waar jullie daar allemaal mee plots vandaan komen. Maar gezien jullie het toch beter weten, gaan we gewoon door in het Nederlands. Wil je weten wat ik zeg, doe dan gewoon de moeite om de taal te leren. Het is niet te veel gevraagd. Het is blijkbaar wat de Nederlander ook verwacht van de immigranten gezien hun keuze. Als je toch zo buitengewoon veel interesse hebt in nederlandse politiek, om plots te beginnen over "rechtse communisten", een term die ik letterlijk nog nooit ergens ben tegengekomen voor het lezen van deze thread, dan denk ik dat je ook wel de taal moet kunnen spreken.

Alsook, DavidB. de titel van de thread moet veranderd worden naar Nov 23. We zijn al een jaartje verder. Ja, het gaat rap, ik weet het.

Doe normaal

[Zinneke]

"Communist-right"... Well, that's a new one.

Is it? Some Dutch far right parties and the SP are not far off Juche Thought or National Bolshevism.

Can you elaborate on what you think dutch juche is?

Marijnissen and subsequent spawn are basically Jucheists. Family business, kidnapping Belgians for ransom, aesthetics over doctrinaire Marxism...it's all there.

Baudet has éléments of Jucheism too. He'd be the type to come up with the paintbrush to complement the hammer and sickle in another life where he is an intellectual Marxist.

[Zinneke]

I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

Agreed. This is not a good time to go into government and with these results it’s a poisoned chalice for anyone forming government. Best for them to lick their wounds and try and reach out to voters they’ve lost. Maybe focus more on cost of living and the consequences of climate change (especially the former) to try and get back some of their old voters who went PVV this time? Idk, I’m not Dutch so I’m not exactly a campaign strategist there but that’s just my (dumb American) take

Yeah left should make pocket book issues central.  On immigration bring in a points system so only high skilled non-EU migrants who know Dutch or learn within certain period (get deported if don't) get to come.  Make argument low wage immigration hurts working class most by driving down wages.  On climate change focus on public transit not taxes and regulations as Netherlands is super dense so no reason couldn't have a nation wide public transit system so people drive less.  I think Danish left under Frederiksen is model left in Europe needs to take long term even though being so badly damaged in Netherlands will take a few election cycles before succeeding.  

Many point to Australia and Canada as examples of high immigration countries with no backlash, but both have points system and immigrants are mostly high skilled.  If low skilled it is very difficult to get into either country.  High skilled assimilate better, rarely commit crimes, and don't drive down wages of lower paid workers.  

This sounds good in theory but does not account for the fact that the real problem is not low-skilled labor migration but irregular migration (refugees and asylum seekers). I do not see how a point-based system would help here.

Did you follow the debates in the Netherlands? The problem is migration full stop now, not just whether they are irregular or not. International students (many of them Germans like you) are even being demonized now even though higher education is technically an export and the international students bring in money by spend on Dutch goods and services. The main problem in the Netherlands is raw numbers and a housing crisis. Its in many ways a victim of its own success. A points based system would at least get the workforce the Netherlands needs to increase capacity in places like health and construction over say logistics and higher education. Yesilgoz was actually the one who put it best when she said its also unfair on the international student or new EU worker... Finding a place to rent in the Netherlands is obscene these days.

What frustrates me is that Wilders and his ilk would have no issue inviting the entire Afrikaner population or crackpot US evangelicals in this context. Secular Dutch parties should propose to build over the Bible belt, make the Dutch Bible Belt a giant manhattan strip of skyscrapers with headshops and kebabs on every corner. If they want to do cosplay Calvinism America has plenty of space.

(and Obviously a points based system is illegal under EU law but then this is also an EU problem, and the EU could provide the solution by not running a political economy that makes loads of people congregate in the Blue Banana  and instead limits internal migration to fit supply with demand)

[Zinneke]

The points system is nuts, but so is the idea that we could have freedom of movement to the scale of the United States. Europe is not the United States. There are many reasons why labour market mobility in the US is easier to implement than the EU. In the end freedom of movement turned out to be a trojan horse for the centre-left in Europe. And some people legit think Ukraine should be fastlined into the EU 4 freedoms!!! You need strong fiscal measures to counterbalance peverse effects, and China-style levels of social engineering, neither of which the EU has. But anyway we are veering off topic, you are right to question building policies in the Netherlands. I dont know much about them.

[Zinneke]

If it can't be Wilders, and if Yesilgöz doesn't want to be PM of a PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB government, and Omtzigt was never running for PM, and it's unclear whether Mona Keijzer was even the BBB candidate...then who ends up being the Prime Minister?

[Zinneke]

It's a shame because of the 3 right wing populist parties JA21 seemed to have the more nuanced/achievable ideas to tackle the issues the right wing populist electorate care about. Wilders will whine about being excluded but he explicitly said that dual nationals shouldn't be allowed to be ministers and then is surprised Yesilgoz rules out government? You reap what you sow.

[Zinneke]

No, it was not a question. It was a factual statement by this guy on Twitter (who is a left-winger) about the changing electoral coalition of the PvdA. I do not dispute the fact that the voters GL-PvdA could (and did) most easily gain were left-wing swing voters who are prone to vote for the most successful center-left option in every election. But we also saw how far GL-PvdA got with that: they only won 25 seats. A left-wing party should be doing better than that. A proper left-wing party should be winning over voters who have financial worries, who are more practically educated, who make less money than the average, who are worried about the future, and who indeed shop at Aldi. The fact that D66 did not win over these voters in 2021 was to be expected. But the PvdA is - or at least should be - on this earth to represent exactly these citizens and their interests. And if the PvdA's merger with GL is causing these voters to walk away, maybe the PvdA should rethink this cooperation and rethink its political positions rather than double down on them.

If for no other reason than the fact the current strategy cannot get them into government, as the overall Parliament was simply too right wing and their voters opposed to having ‘progressive’ parties in government once again. The left needs to grow its vote share, as well as becoming less toxic to middle of the road voters who might not vote for it but would punish a right of centre party that went into coalition with them.

Yes but think of the mandates!!! /S

The left should sit out the next coalition and say to the Dutch Right that they won and thus it's up to them to form a coalition. Since Rutte I pretty much every year there has been some excuse of a right-wing dominated coalition actually being left-wing because a progressive party is a junior coalition partner.

More importantly I just cannot understand the strategy of doing a merger in such an electoral system and political context, but nor can I understand the political pathway Timmermans took. He was always going to get attacked domestically for his role as a Commissioner with a portfolio that can be immensely difficult to handle. Pre-Brusselized Timmermans at the head of the PvdA could have put on his Roda JC scarf and do his "Im from the Parkstad ya know" act and run an at least aesthetically Danish social democrat + defense of peripheral Netherlands campaign that could siphon votes from Omzigt and BBB, while letting GL run up the vote in the city centres. The moment he took up that portfolio in the Commission he should have put a cross to his political ambitions domestically. had he got the top Commission job or more realistically a foreign affairs gig he would have won some "experienced statesmen" points. But coming from his portfolio in the dull mediatic landscape of the EU bubble into the mudpit of Dutch electoral debates with a seasoned Wilders ready to rumble made him look as rusty as the factories in his home town.

[Zinneke]

I agree it seems utterly absurd, but they've seen every single junior coalition partner of theirs lose seats by virtue of being the junior coalition partner and now they are in that position they probably want to avoid it and play the classic post-modern political trump card (very popular amongst their liberal brothers down south) of both governing and acting as if they are fresh opposition. It's the only explanation I can think of.

[Zinneke]

Interesting to see if Wilders can make a difference regarding non EU immigration numbers. In Melonis case she actually has agreed to a substantial increase in non EU numbers, I believe due to pressure from business groups, and yet FDI polling numbers are holding up.

If Wilders essentially presents the policy as "you'll have less immigrants in your city centre or asylum centre than before", he may get away with overall numbers. But housing and health are as strained as they can be so I doubt he goes Melonis way of net 200k work migrants. The whole idea of Dutch re-becoming the norm at university is to reduce highly educated, "high quality" often EU country migrants.

[Zinneke]

Based VVD letting the inbreds take their share of the migration burden.