Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

Rest assured there are seperatists and especially senior figures of the Procès who are hoping for a PP-Vox majority. It would be the resurrection they need after a shambolic few years since 2017 and divisions between ERC and Junts. The morale of civil society orgs like Omnium and ANC is at rock bottom too. They know Sanchez is destroying them through a trench warfare tactic.

[Zinneke]

Like in Sweden, I just don't understand why a "grand coalition" between the two major parties isn't a realistic option to keep the right-wing populists out of power?

Funny how this talking point is only ever used when the right win. PSOE could have entered a coalition with PP instead of radical left Podemos after the last election too.

Obviously you are trolling but it was Albert Rivera who forced Pedro Sanchez to turn towards his left and find Podemos as an ally.

Also, PSOE and PP cannot be seen to be collaborating with each other, the last 10 years have been about the narrative of the "threat to bipartidismo". It would be terminal for them with the competition to their Left and Right.

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Likely a little bit of column A and a little from Column B. Catalonia is the only place turnout went down when accounting for mail votes, and it went down a lot. The expectation is abstention from the separatists. If you remove those voters with nothing else happening then the combined Left would more likely then not get the lost seats since it has the next largest base. Which would make it easier for Sanchez to build an alternative government if PP+VOX end up less than 175, simply by pulling seats from the noncooperationists.

But the Right would also get a few seats from them as well. The classic maneuver of not participating in a free and fair election (in contrast to an authoritarian one with a predetermined result) and then complaining when the results don't have any place for your views.

Rest assured there are seperatists and especially senior figures of the Procès who are hoping for a PP-Vox majority. It would be the resurrection they need after a shambolic few years since 2017 and divisions between ERC and Junts. The morale of civil society orgs like Omnium and ANC is at rock bottom too. They know Sanchez is destroying them through a trench warfare tactic.

If I was a separatist I would want as many seats as possible. Not to enter government,  but to keep forcing as many repeat elections.  But I'm not, so I can't comment with any determination.

No to the idea of repeat elections, because that's not taking into account voter tiredness in Catalonia in particular. I'm sure the average separatist that abstained, abstained out of being fed up with the Moncloa system and disillusionment in general, but certain senior figures of the Catalan nationalist movement knew that a PP-VOx government was the only way to reinvigorate a secessionist movement. Junts are taking a more hard-line stance vs Sanchez and their vote vs ERC might have indicated a shift in attitude of both but both have under-performed, many probably stayed home thinking this wasn't their fight. It inadvertently may have helped Sanchez and PSOE a lot.


EDIT : Looks like there is for the first time in a while, a non-independentist majority of seats allocated in Catalonia.

[Zinneke]

Amazing feat by Sanchez.

When's the last time any EU election did not underestimate the right-wing? Corbyn?

Is it amazing as a feat? We are back to square one but with the Catalan nationalists now teething and needing to up the ante.

THis is mostly PP absolutely ballsing this up by being seen as too close to Vox and alos Feijoo was not a very impressive candidate. Like even if Ayuso is corrupt and a hate figure on the left, she legit had simple slogans enough to mobilise the chavs, like "libertad o communismo". I didn't see many memorable Feijoo campaigning, I saw a campaign on the defensive because of the Vox issue (and this is partially down to Sanchez gambling yes), that looked like it was designed by coporate consultants.

[Zinneke]

I've seen enough, the right will not get enough seats for government

Isn't it premature at the current vote count? But that would amazing, hopefully Sanchez can capitalize on it.

Lmao, it is absolutely premature considering that Madrid has a %5 vote count. If you look at the percentages for each province, actually the Psoe is doing REALLY BADLY. https://www.nytimes.com/es/interactive/2023/07/23/espanol/mundo/elecciones-espana-resultados.html

How’s it going

Wait before you mock. Then make it a sig.

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

A universe where since Corona the issue of independence has been put in a freezer in terms of salience and these parties know that making it an issue again by demanding a vote on sovereignty would increase its salience., even if it means sabotaging Sanchez.

[Zinneke]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Reckon PP and Vox could just about make it with Communidad de Madrid

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties.

Will this trust be regained by Catalonian parties sabotaging a government that is preferred to the Spanish right (maybe we can debate the popularity of Sanchez but not the preference for him over Feijoo)? Maybe if you endorse magical thinking. Catalonian nationalists are magical thinkers, in love with delusions and danger, so I don't discount the possibility they do something stupid. But I don't think it would work out for them...

Well their main priority will be Catalan regional elections, not currying favour with PSC/PSOE voters, I would also say quietly that they believe that they do not care about Vox getting in and some even want it for reasons I elaborated.

This is also something I do not understand and would not endorse, but the idea that the Catalan parties will look at these results and not think about changing strategy, especially as they are also losing badly in the polls in the regionals, is absurd. They are stuck between fresh elections and voter tiredness in their ranks increasing or backing a Sanchez goverment with no drama. The third option is escalate and ask for a referendum and get that issue back into the salience it needs to be for them to gain back credibility amongst the civil society in particular. THey know its fantasist, but what matters for them is that after Corona and Ukraine the Catalan national quesiton is salient again, not necessarily their demands being filled or Vox in the corridors of Moncloa.

[Zinneke]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

[Zinneke]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

Yes, no calls for a referendum. Just money

The PNVisation of ERC

[Zinneke]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

I mean, the Catalan voters of the separatist parties want independence, it is quite obvious that they punished them with abstention for supporting the central government and not getting a referendum.

BigSerg is weirdly right here : the whole implosion of the Catalan government and seperatist party system is because the civil society orgs (Omnium, ANC, CDR) that have grown massively vs the actual parties are now trying to apply serious pressure on the parties for "selling out" to Sanchez and the whole fiasco of the procès in general. This is not a negligible factor in whether Junts and ERC back a new Sanchez government rather than doing a double or nothing "referendum or bust" negotiation strategy, at least for a sustained period of time, enough to calm the base of the nationalist support.

I haven't discounted the fact that Catalonian parties and activists, being deranged and dangerous psychos, could make a grave mistake imperiling an arrangement that has worked surprisingly well for them. I am making an argument that it should be abundantly clear to them that the typical Catalonian-speaking person approves of Pedro Sanchez, abhors the Spanish right and cares about preserving Catalonian autonomy as it exists under the current system. We don't need to debate this: that is the obvious message as sent by Catalonian voters tonight.

I know you love effortless superiority and refuse to debate us plebs who are not in your good books but here goes :  no it isn't because there are many factors as to why the PSC did well and the popularity of Sanchez is not necessarily one of them (the hatred of the Right might be yes, but then that was present the past few elections as well). For example, a huge chunk of refusenik seperatists who would vote for Rufian solely because for years he acted like a troll in the parliament then suddenly became a Sanchez-stan are probably disaffected. THe whole seperatist bloc in Catalonia is going through an acute crisis, the government only hasn't called new elections because they know this type of result could occur, but you simply do not know if the extra PSC seats is a ringing endorsement of Pedro Sanchez. Catalonia has its own political culture and that is a factor as much as what goes on in Moncloa.

The message sent by Catalan voters is that they have lost trust in the separatist parties. We are telling you that in order to regain that trust, they will absolutely attempt to sabotage a PSOE government. Rufian's position within ERC is weakened with this result, there is a faction there that is in favour of not investing Sanchez that will come out strengthened, and Junts is now fully against a PSOE government.

It's undeniable that part of the PSC increase comes from the nationalist camp. Not neccessarily from the most militant and 'hyperventilating' sectors, but not all the ERC loses are gains for abstention. Even though the Catalan society is highly polarized, the pro-independence camp is not monolithic. Also, don't understimate the beneficial effects of the government's policy under Sánchez, in order to pacífy and stabilize Catalonia. There's conflict weariness and many people knew a PP-VOX government would burn everything again. Even the CEO (sociological institute ran by the Catalan government) concedes the PSC is leading vote intention in the eventuality of a new regional election

I am not denying this (edit : alongside lower turnout). I am saying it is for reasons outside of Sanchez's campaign/popularity.

PSC is seen as more credible due to separatist infighting, and vote weariness or issue salience too (massively helped PSC during Corona elections for example) is a factor.

[Zinneke]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

[Zinneke]

Vox went from 6 to 1 seat allocated in Castilla-Leon where they govern with PP.

[Zinneke]

Abascal congratulated Feijóo for winning the elections and for no longer needing Vox.

Nonsrnse. The PP needs Vox in many regional and local governments. There's a massive amount of territorial power depending on Vox

I think he was being sarcastic.

Abascal started his speech well noticing that everyone was celebrating when there is clearly a mess and another crisis on the horizon. And also leveraging his position well within this.

But then he went full conspiracy mode and reminded us why Vox are just forocoches with deodorant.

[Zinneke]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

[Zinneke]

I guess it's time to prepare for the rivers of ink about an Ayuso-led coup against Feijoo.

Personally I think he'll be very much in place if there's a second election, but it is going to be a few very awkward months for him.

Pretty much. Ayuso has a strong base of support in Madrid,
including the media based there. Additionally she's more clear about her willingness to deal with Vox than Feijóo and other PP leaders. However, Spain is not like Madrid and not all the PP 'barons' are like Ayuso. In case there's a coup orchestrated by Ayuso supporters, the PP would definitely follow the path of the US Republican Party.

Yes, and there is room for resentment of Ayuso trying to turn Spain into a city-state with her tax haven style policies in the periphery, enough to potentially harm PP in precisely the areas that really helped them this election. Madrid is seen as a brain drain magnet.

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

I really don't get this logic from you and DFB : its quite clear to me that the Catalan nationalist parties will not just bend over unlike last time precisely because they are on the back foot electorally but are kingmakers. They have no interest in the "overall message" the Catalan people sent this election (which as I said is not necessarily a ringing endorsement of Sanchez either), they have an interest in the next regional election which they regard as the "true" election and voice of the Catalan people over the direction of Catalonia.

All a compromising stance would do is enable PSC and Sumar to campaign next regional election on their narrative that the Procès was a waste and that the votes for Catalanist parties to govern in the Generalitat is a wasted vote. Its electoral suicide for ERC and especially Junts to be seen as just accessories to the Madrid-based regime. I agree with you that Junts have many ex-Convergents in their ranks that are unpredictable, but they also now have civil society influence of people who literally only care about independence and nothing else, and who work all their lives for it. The lesson these people will take from this result is that compromise reduces their vote share.

[Zinneke]

Some maps of the major cities :

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-del-23-j-en-cada-distrito-de-madrid-barcelona-valencia-sevilla-y-otras-grandes-ciudades.html

we need to wait for the street by street maps though

PP winning Sarria-San Gervasi makes me revise my statement on how the regional politics impacts the national in Catalunya, it might be that the sheer volume of the Sanchez vs Feijoo narrative in the media clouded out the intricacies of the Catalan political scene.

[Zinneke]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

Pedro Sánchez has been the perfect underdog in these elections ("Perro Sánchez" 🐶), on the other hand. He will be presiding the EU's Spanish semester as acting PM. That would be quite something in case of a repeat election

Indeed, the Catalan parties took a big pounding. Even Junts lost a bit of ground, but, I'm not sure if Puigdemont's ego will get the message Velasco.

I mean, to play the Devil's Advocate because seemingly no one here is willing to, it has nothing to do with ego, even if "President" has a big one. It has to do with leveraging what hand the electorate gave you. The idea that these people (who have been exiled from their families, had their phones illegally hacked or given jail time for organizing the horrible, despicable act of putting papers in ballot boxes) wouldn't want that pardon and scrapped because "the will of the Catalan people" following a General Election has been decided is laughable.

If you want to define the will of the Catalan people, let them have a vote.

(It's rather amusing that the Spanish press too are talking of "the will of the Catalan people being decided" but found every excuse under the sun when the pro-independence parties won a majority several times over)

[Zinneke]

The Secretary General of Podemos, Ione Belarra, is tackling Yolanda Diaz hard :

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230724/9130580/belarra-culpa-diaz-perdida-votos-renuncia-feminismo-e-invisibilizar.html

I was also perplexed as to why Sumar were so happy with losing seats, but in a context where the "left of PSOE" parties were on a road to a cliff and being wiped out fully, it is understandable. Still, I find Diaz's campaigning a bit too much like the "Everything is Awesome" Lego Movie song. Hugs and smiles won't solve crippled political systems.

[Zinneke]

Sorry if this has already been asked, but maybe some more knowledgeable posters can answer this:

Why has right-of-center moderate Catalanism become electorally unviable? It seems that a part of former CiU voters embraced Puigdemont's radicalization on the Catalan question and his tentatives to swallow the rest of the pro-independence spectrum; while the rest of CiU's once formidable 30-40% completely jumped ship. Uniò running alone, PDeCAT running alone, PNC, etc. all failed miserably. Superficially one might expect a big void at that place in the Catalan political landscape, but there seem to be no voters in that place.

My theory is that their electorate had 2 constituencies:

The first are people who were die hard Convergents, who basically voted for it (and now JxC) almost out of family habit since the Transition, they always had at the very least constitutional reform and eventual autonomy as an end goal. They got disillusioned with the Spanish state and any suggestion of accomodation with it when the Spanish Supreme Court [which is politicised due to its nomination by the Senate, itself a barely democratic institution designed to favour PPSOE], struck down the articles of the new Catalan Constitution in 2010. From then on a period of polarisation of the Catalan national issue was inevitable. And the "moderate Catalanist" stance, which was essentially represented by that constitution as a compromise, became a fantasy. Add to that that Convergents were facing corruption scandals (Pujol, Artur Mas) that required sometimes confusing rebranding and an end to their whole schtick about being a clean centrist soft nationalist entity and you can see why they decided to go on the road to secession. They always had also some pressure from the civil society actors like ANC, and now JxC essentially is dependent on the latter now. Unio went with PSC to incarnate the soft nationalist stance, and even figures in the PSC like Iceta were saying that if 65% of Catalans voted for independence the PSC would back it (a brave statement to make as a PSC figure). So there was a home for those types of people who refused polarisation but were traditionally "Catalanist" in their voting pattern.

Then there are the ones who voted Convergencia for a lower tax bracket. They probably are voting either PP if they literally only care about money and tax brackets, or PSC if they think "The Proces" was a danger to their assets. A lot of bourgeois areas like Sarria-San Gervasi, San Cugat etc have seen gains this election for PSC and PP. Could be those types of people.

[Zinneke]

To add onto the “BigSerg is a bumbling idiot” takes, removing Catalonia from Spain would obviously change the politics of the country itself to an extent that old coalitions may just completely fall apart. There are probably plenty who have formed entire political identities around a perceived attack on “Spanish culture” and opposition to secessionism, and removing a key thing fueling that anger could very well cause a massive shift in their voting patterns. For the record this also would mean that Catalonia would not be a uniformly left leaning country even if it votes close to it right now.

Agreed, but for the last statement. Yes there is a rather nativist current in Catalan nationalism, but nothing like Flemish nationalism or even the Vox brand of nationalism (which isn't racial because the Empire for them is a big deal, but is exclusionary).

I would bet by bottom dollar Catalonia would be a remarkably more progressive society than Spain, which already has admirable social attitudes towards LGBT, etc. Catalonia already has legalised weed, banned bullfighting, and a host of other progressive measures. The whole "Convergencia is comparable to PP" doesn't stand up either. Yes Convergents were the kind of people to care about low taxes, but they were still markedly more progressive than any Spanish right wing entity.

[Zinneke]

PP are trying to lobby PSOE figures individually, hoping for them to vote for Feijoo, and Vox have said they will abstain in case Feijoo builds this majority. It's still a pipe dream but the impass with the Catalans + the PSOE having previous with defectors who just care about careerism means this could be an interesting development...

[Zinneke]

With Ayuso turning Madrid into a tax haven that other communities (outside of Basque Country, Navarre, Aragon and Catalonia) simply can't compete with, both Catalonia and the Basque Country offer an economic counterweight to avoid Spain becoming heavily dependent on its capital and service sector in particular. If you look at population density a Catalonia-less Spain, is a Spain dominated by Madrid with a probable commercial port developing in both Valencia and the Galician cities, but its certainly a different "make up" politically speaking to what it is with Catalonia and the Basque country, and that would be reflected in its vote. Also Catalonia remains an industrial heartland of Spain to an extent that no other community does.