Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

Why is Rufian saying that Puigdemont is a Kremlin asset? Have relations between ERC and old Convergents basically deteriorated? Does Rufian prefer Sanchez to his Catalan coalition partner?

[Zinneke]

lmfao I'm the one who brought it up and the first one to criticize the Catalan separatist strategy but you're out of your depth if you think a) Puigdemont ever had a closer relationship with Putin than the far right Internationale that includes Abascal and Salvini, b) just because a journalist is Catalan (from La Vanguardia no less) he should somehow take ownership of the issue because he is Catalan and c) thinking Salvini and Puigdemont were ever close politically or shot from the same hip. There's so many amalgamations in your thought its kind of embarrassing dude. In the end Salvini and Abascal are the Putin psycophants, not Congervencia.

[Zinneke]

[
Funny how Juliana forgot to mention Putin's links with Catalan independentism, which are far more direct that taking a picture with someone who's wearing a Putin t-shirt. Oopsie! Oh, by the way, the guy in the t-shirt...used to be goods pal with Catalan independentists.

It's a matter of fact there exists a connection between Putin and Vox through the ultraconservative group HazteOir.

https://www.elespanol.com/reportajes/20220319/ultraderecha-vox-oligarcas-putin-traves-hazteoir-citizengo/658184665_0.html

https://elpais.com/politica/2017/08/03/actualidad/1501774274_152047.html



https://ctxt.es/es/20220301/Firmas/38961/malofeev-rusia-ucrania-guerra-abascal-hazteoir-arsuaga-villar-mir-oligarcas-antigenero-ultraderecha.htm

lmfao I'm the one who brought it up and the first one to criticize the Catalan separatist strategy but you're out of your depth if you think a) Puigdemont ever had a closer relationship with Putin than the far right Internationale that includes Abascal and Salvini, b) just because a journalist is Catalan (from La Vanguardia no less) he should somehow take ownership of the issue because he is Catalan and c) thinking Salvini and Puigdemont were ever close politically or shot from the same hip. There's so many amalgamations in your thought its kind of embarrassing dude. In the end Salvini and Abascal are the Putin psycophants, not Congervencia.

There were alleged connections between Putin's Russia and certain Catalan nationalists

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4809920/0/posible-conexion-rusa-entorno-puigdemont-agita-politica-catalana/


PP and Vox signed a coalition deal in Castilla y León.  Sad that nobody cares to post anything about this development

So Puigdemonts entourage went to meet Russian officials but they also met a whole bunch of other officials from other countries... Yes Rufian is right to say that they take themselves way too seriously, his James Bond quote is spot on, but it's also a total misdirection to suggest that the Kremlin were behind El Procès (it would have been a much smoother operation), which is what some right wing mouthpieces of PP and the deep state Populares are desperate to present.

Meanwhile there is evidence the Kremlin funds the far right in Europe and anyone with a modicum of objectivity can tell which actors have agency and autonomy in their actions and which ones it took an entire day to react to the invasion because they needed a line from their handlers.

[Zinneke]

Embarrassing dude. In the end Salvini and Abascal are the Putin psycophants, not Congervencia.


So Puigdemonts entourage went to meet Russian officials but they also met a whole bunch oer officials from other countries... Yes Rufian is right to say that they take themselves way too seriously, his James Bond quote is spot on, but it's also a total misdirection to suggest that the Kremlin were behind El Procès (it would have been a much smoother operation), which is what some right wing mouthpieces of PP and the deep state Populares are desperate to present.

Meanwhile there is evidence the Kremlin funds the far right in Europe and anyone with a modicum of objectivity can tell which actors have agency and autonomy in their actions and which ones it took an entire day to react to the invasion because they needed a line from their handlers.

It's telling the Puigdemont's office made a release full of outrage and accusations against the evil Spanish state,  but there is no denial of the contacts between the Puigdemont's envoy and the Russian officials. It's not the first time there are allegations of contacts between Catalan separatists and Putin's Russia,  on the other hand.

Worth noticing that Putin's Russia supports far-right populist authoritarians in Europe, while its allies in Latin America are Nicolás Maduro, Daniel Ortega and the Cuban government. Likewise Putin's Russia has an excellent relationship with the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.  These alliances are apparently contradictory, but they make sense if you consider the goals of Putin's foreign policy. It serms that
Putin wants to antagonize the USA and their allies in Western Europe, as well seeks to destabilize his adversaries through different means.

Finally it's important to notice that Puigdemont is the leader of a Catalan nationalist faction that is the main heir of the old Convergencia.  However, the current incarnations of that brand of Catalan nationalism are products of a particular evolution. My admired Entic Juliana describes that evolution as "the mutation of the Convergencia's gene". I mean, Junts per Catalunya is far away from the "collaborationalist " and "regionalist" Convergencia. One could say that JxCAT has a lot of "populist" and "cult sect" elements.

Of course the Catalan "process " to independence is not a Russian fabrication (I don't think anyone is seriously claiming that in Spain), but I'm not surprised at all to discover there have been contacts between Puigdemont's entourage and Putin's officials.

On the other hand, it is well established that HazteOir / CitizenGo have received donations from Konstantin Malofeev.  HazteOir is an organization very closely linked to Vox, while Malofeev is an ultra-conservative oligarch from Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CitizenGo

  CitizenGO is an ultra-conservative advocacy group founded in Madrid, Spain, in 2013 by the ultra-Catholic and far-right HazteOir organization (...)

In 2013, CitizenGo signed a declaration in support of the Russian law,[29][30] which had the stated purpose of protecting children from being exposed to homosexuality 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Konstantin_Malofeev

  Konstantin Valeryevich Malofeev (Russian: Константин Валерьевич Малофеев) is a Russian businessman and chairman of non-government pro-monarchism organisation Society for the Development of Russian Historical Education Double-Headed Eagle. He is chairman of the board of directors of the media group Tsargrad dedicated to Russian Orthodox Christianity and support of President Vladimir Putin   

I'm denying nothing in what you've said, these are fair arguments. But I'm saying that the idea that Puigdemont as an exiled politician is talking to other government, be it Russian, US, Bhutan, Cameroon or Libaland is not necessarily a criminal move. That's the main argument of his chief of staff and tbh I am willing to accept plausible deniability : just because you meet with foreign policy officials of xyz country does not mean you are their assets. Whether Puigdemont has the mandate to talk to them is another matter (and he is trying to set such a thing up via a Catalan Parliament approved government-in-exile).

As a reminder, any Catalan government official that approaches any international institution or actor to talk about the referendum or anything related to self-determination risks a fine or even prison for sedition. I'd expect that from countries like PR China and Russia, not an EU country.

I otherwise agree with your criticisms of Junts and of the Puigdemont cult as a whole. i think there's a lot to be said about the Procès and the independence movement but to argue that it is all a result of a Russian psy op as some Spanish media (not you) are using this mini-scandal to suggest, it's honestly totally propagandist and Rufian was an idiot to leave that goal open. Puigdemont supports Ukraine, ANC's main figures too and only a few complete anti-imp new left useful idiot types in their ranks have spoken in favour of Putin and the DNR/LNR debacle. Compare that to Abascal and his awkwardness on the issue.

[Zinneke]

Absolutely shocked that an intelligence service that decided that spying on the King's ex-mistress was a useful expenditure of state resources also spied on their own PSOE Prime Minister. Shocked I tell you.

(and yes, the Catalan nationalists are also right that Sanchez and his beleaguered defence minister have probably released the fact that they have been spied on by Pegasus to deflect the fact that Spanish deep state is as bad as Orban's).

[Zinneke]

It's also a bit rich to think of PP as "respectable" compared to these parties...they have a lot of blood on their hands too.

[Zinneke]

Wonder if the Vinicius affair is waking people up to the normalisation of casual racism in Spain? Oh no wait the canis are on tiktok listening to Ayuso's jingle and singing it.

[Zinneke]

He has always faced pressure from the centrist wing of PSOE to lead a mouth frothing repression of regional nationalists in order to siphon at least some of the "cani" vote. It could have a lot to do with securing his position within his own party and less of the national scene in general.

It's certainly an interesting move.

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what's the deal with Barcelona, why the Trias/Junts operation did well despite them seeming to be an independence-orientated movement (I get they are still the inheritors of the old Convergents, and the electoral map of Barcelona checks out as a "rich vs poor" map with Catalanist vs anti-indepence trends) but why is ERC is so against a left-wing coalition there? Is Colau too polarising across Catalonia for them to want to govern with her and PSC? Do ERC realise that if they back Trias it will technically mean either relying on PP-Vox (impossible) or the other left-wing formations anyway?

[Zinneke]

Mike, stop deluding yourself, Feijoo will sell out the Catalans, minority language rights, basic womens rights etc for a taste of power. To get what he got he allied with Ayuso the ultimate populist right figure. Velasco is right, a PP-Vox government is the beginning of Orbanisation in Spain, a reversal of the Autonomies, and the deep state  that includes the intelligence services, police, activist lawyers - that in Spain are all right-wing! - but also the higher education system will all be captured politically.

Vox wants to invoke Art. 155 the moment they get into the coalition. Watch out for ERC calling a snap election in the process and yet again the Catalan nationalists gaining ground despite Sanchez and Podemos the "golpistas, rojas y ultraizquierdistas" actually demotivating and breaking the Catalan momentum.

No offense man but people like you are kind of the problem in European democracy overall, just bland centre-right people that see a blue rosette and think its the same as back home. Take a good look at how Metsola will condemn Orban and Poland for politicising the judiciary because they are Eastern European and the governing parties are not in the EPP but has yet to say anything about how incredibly politicised the Spanish and Greek intelligence services are.

[Zinneke]

I know they deserve it after badly and repeatedly screwing up since 2019 (the Foto de Colón, Rivera going scorched earth on Sanchez, Arrimadas' erratic leadership, the Murcia debacle, and so on), but I can't help but to mourn C's collapse and disapperance (going the way of UCD, CDS and UPyD). I really felt they could have played an important and positive role in a multi-party system, not long ago they looked set up and ready for it, and it is a shame that failure led not only to setback, but to outright demise.

To think Rivera could still be Deputy PM (Vicepresidente, I know) of a coalition government in a different timeline...

Rivera would only be Deputy PM to a PP government, and even then he wanted to cannibilise the PP once he saw them on their knees. Dispel the myth in your head that the senior leadership of Cs once Rivera took over were ever going to be a constructive party : We are seeing in France that extreme centrism very much exists. And I don't find completely out of the ordinary the theory that C's were taken over by intelligence figures close to the likes of Aznar and his camp to try and find a more respectable, young face of the establishment Right after the multiple PP corruption scandals. Basically a psyop to get PSC then enlightened centrist type figures who are anti-nationalist to eventually transfer to the PP-VOX block. boy did it work well.

Anyway, looks like in Barcelona the PSC is actively looking for PP support to get the mayorality...cannot see Colau following this though, but interesting to see how a local election was so split along the independence debate despite the internal squabbles between the two independence camps and civil society.

[Zinneke]

But why exactly did Cs collapse so badly?

Velasco will explain with better theories, but my theory is that they were just outbid by the two parties to the right on the cleavage issues they wanted to campaign on. They are partially responsible of the frenzy in outright insane rhetoric like calling anyone to the left of them "golpistas", calling for suspension of autonomies, etc and once they created these conditions PP and especially Vox were able to take it to a new extreme and outbid them in the electoral market. Cs would propose one thing and both PP and Vox would just propose a more extreme version of it. They couldn't compete in a media sphere where football shows like El Chiringuito are actually seen as models to emulate in a political debate : shouting matches, open hints of cocaine use, people almost playing reality TV characters, and whoever can say the most controversial thing wins the argument. Welcome to Moncloa in a few months. The canis are taking over.

[Zinneke]

Without Sanchez calling the GE, do ERC play a waiting game in BCN rather than hand Trias a lot of power so suddenly?

[Zinneke]

There's nothing hyperbolic, Vox is unironically one of the most dangerous far right parties, you have entire stadiums making monkey chants to a black player, you have the Catalan issue still potentially a tinderbox where you could see serious riots and civil disobedience if the autonomies are suspended.

This isn't a Meloni style scenario where people have just defaulted into voting for her having tried everybody else, and where she specifically looks to tackle the singular issue of the migration across the Med, this is a party and an entire spectrum wipping up Spanish society into a flag-infested frenzy that could see basic rights such as due process disapear. A post-Francoist corruption vehicle and criminal protection site allying with a party that genuinely wants to import the South American racial and class segregation model with more classical neofascistic characistics to Spain...that should be enough to mobilise people!

[Zinneke]

How political is the Spanish military out of curiosity?

My anectedotal 2cents is that when I lived there I had a mate who was in the military and he was a PSOE member with the more conservative characteristics you would expect (and the types maybe PSOE have lost). Anyway, in his view, Spain's upper echelons of the military are not politicised and take civil-military relations seriously because of the Transition period and the fact that multiple governments (mostly PSOE) have appointed serious people that could be considered "military skeptics" as defence ministers. That being said, there are branches that he considered right-wing overtly, and then there is the Guardia Civil which was technically MoD but under orders from Interior. You also have culture of machismo banter that would make Americans balk but you probably have that everywhere.

The intelligence services for me are the ones that are inherently politicised, but in a rather laughably amateuresque way : which serious intelligence service goes around spying on the King's mistress to see what she is up to because he's a bit jealous/afraid of the court case? And then of course there is the Pegasus scandal and I don't think it's a coincidence that Spain and Greece, two former dictatorships with stay-behind networks from that era still populating the intelligence services, are the countries actively spying on their opposition figures, including in Spain ¡s case, someone spying on Sanchez himself!

Interested to hear what the Spanish posters think though.

[Zinneke]

A guy who won't admit and let go of his little project, because he believes he and his inner circle built it therefore should run it. That is the main reason.

[Zinneke]

Are Sumar-Podemos talks being blocked on policy platform differences or seat-sharing differences (I guess in terms of who gets what slot on the lists)?

The Spanish left agrees on 99% of things but the 1% they disagree on happen to be each other. It's a cesspit of inflated egos and horrible personalities.

You can take out "Spanish" from your sentence.

[Zinneke]

Tbf it gets more complicated when there are Valencian regionalists who while obviously sympathetic to Catalonia do not wish to identify with it and regret that Catalans are so primordialist in their interpretation of what we all mostly refer to as Catalan now (in it's earlier forms it had a specific term which I forget). You rarely see Dutch people, even their nationalists get testy about Flemish "really being just a dialect of Dutch".

The whole idea that Valencianismo is a conspiracy to divide Paises Catalans driven by some Catalan nationalists is always a bit of a stretch in my mind, they clearly have distinct "state" formations in more contemporary history. Although Valencia could also be upheld as an example of when the Francoists get their grubby hands on a distinct identity to their artificial conception and attempt to wipe out a language.

Vox and PPs goal is to wipe out the use of the language, whether they want to call it Catalan or Valencian. The use of the Catalan term is because the evil Catalufos are now the ultimate Fifth Column, attempting to take over every Spanish region...soon you'll see Vox claiming the Catalufos are endoctrinating Badajoz. Yes, vote for wife beaters, drug cartel frequenters, and corrupt bimbos to ensure your signpost in bum Badajoz isn't in Catalan. Sadly an effective message.

[Zinneke]

Yep, Collboni was elected mayor. Trías f*** up by announcing that it would govern with ERC, which pushed PP towards PSC

It could have been hard to explain that Feijóo gives up to the Spanish ultranationalists to get Valencia one day, while the following day he's giving the Barcelona mayoralty to Catalan separatists. The losers are the uptown Barcelona locals that voted for Trías in May and could vote for Feijóo in July

I think Collboni should try to form a coalition with BCOMU and ERC after elections,  in case Oriol Junqueras is willing to make progressive deals and give stability to the local government

I think ERC still very much resent BComu because of what happened in 2019 (where the same sort of thing happened but with Maragall as Trias and Colau as Collboni, and Valls as the PP with the "anyone but the independence crew" stance), and also PSC and ERC probably also can't stand each other due to factors like Maragalls defection, PSC being way more pro-development, etc. But really yes the reason you allude to for ERC's ridiculous stance during this process was the fact there is a GE on the horizon and they must shore up the Catalan nationalist vote. That city's politics is just so divided across so many cleavages that it takes Belgo-Dutch compromises to decide the mayor, hence why often the least offensive option is elected.

[Zinneke]

Never expected a political party to make a YTPesque sh*tpost

Content like this is pretty frequent in Latin American politics as well. Supposedly it appeals to young people but it feels like a cringe attempt at being meme-y IMO.

No it's a direct response to the PP also using such tactics (Ayuso had her jingle that people with zero interest in politics other than "stopping the golpistas/communists" were singing in the streets) , not to mention how far right influencers that technically operate outside of the party political system are very effective on platforms like TikTok.

It is hardly the Spanish Left's fault that everything has to be memey and aesthetic to appeal to Salamanca-dwelling Chanel-wearing normies. They are the ones actually turning up to the long form debates while the PP prefers to spread the "red peril" stuff directly imported from Latin America.

[Zinneke]

Never expected a political party to make a YTPesque sh*tpost

Content like this is pretty frequent in Latin American politics as well. Supposedly it appeals to young people but it feels like a cringe attempt at being meme-y IMO.

No it's a direct response to the PP also using such tactics (Ayuso had her jingle that people with zero interest in politics other than "stopping the golpistas/communists" were singing in the streets) , not to mention how far right influencers that technically operate outside of the party political system are very effective on platforms like TikTok.

It is hardly the Spanish Left's fault that everything has to be memey and aesthetic to appeal to Salamanca-dwelling Chanel-wearing normies. They are the ones actually turning up to the long form debates while the PP prefers to spread the "red peril" stuff directly imported from Latin America.

I struggle to understand this post honestly. Salamanca is one of the most pro-PP places not just in Madrid, but all of Spain. It makes little sense that the Spanish left is posting memes on TikTok to try to win votes there, as opposed to young voters overall. I also doubt that the type of young voters inclined to vote for Sumar are those that inhabit the apartments of their rich parents in central Madrid.

I am saying that what started the trend, including Ayuso's marketing campaign, were Salamanca style normies who needed more political engagement, hence why it is not Sumars fault this kind of campaigning matters.

[Zinneke]

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Apparently these people also made this.
Deeply disturbing, to say the least.
I think it's saying that Abascal will make anime real? And telling people their waifus want them to vote for VOX?
The sad thing is that I could see this working on some people...

Vox is full of peverts, like the GOP and pretty much every right wing party. Forocoches is like a worse version of 4chan.

Incidentally, there's a bit of a mini-scandal because El Pais reported that Ursula Von Der Leyen was apparently unimpressed when meeting Feijoo, and was quoted as saying "this guy only cares about destroying his own government". Cue the Brussels PR machine launching full force onto El Pais to get them to rectify the "unfounded" comments.

[Zinneke]

PP and Boks have spent the whole campaign running on culture war nonsense, not surprising that voters are getting tired of it and turning back to the govt. It might turn out to be like America 2022 all over again. Knocking on wood

Knock on wood all you like, the media landscape that targets people who either don't have the time to follow debates or are outright deep into the Agenda 2030/conspiracy nonsense favours Vox and PP. Then add to that the issue Mediterranean immigration which simply won't go away any time soon with the climate crisis etc. In the end this culture war stuff is working on getting average shopping mall dwellers to vote these charlatans in, even though they are both the dumbest and most dangerous right wing spectrum in Western Europe at least.

What could save the Left block is the constituency system and the Basque Country and Catalonia essentially locking out the right from their provinces. But I still predict a comfortable PP-Vox majority. Valencia is usually a good bellwether for the GE and it's notable swing even in a relatively progressive inner city towards PP shows you something is brewing in terms of frustration.

[Zinneke]

Remember folks: whenever the right is popular, it's because of media bias and astroturf campaigns targeted at uppity ignoramuses.

I can put it in simpler words and with crayons if it helps you

[Zinneke]

The Catalonia regionalist parties seems to be losing a lot of ground.  Is that part of the count bias?

Abstention or transfers from ERC/Junts to PSC/PSOE because the national issue might be less important than blocking Vox (which is, well, also about the national identity issue).

I think peripheral nationalists are abstaining a lot and that helps PSOE in those constituencies. But still early days.